While many crypto market participants had high hopes for the upcoming month of October, its arrival brought unprecedented disappointment
Despite the anticipation among crypto market participants for a bullish October, the arrival of the month brought disappointment as Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 3.98% from the beginning. This was accompanied by a decrease in the total market cap of altcoins by $41.67 billion.
Upon closer examination, this occurrence can be attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and the tendency for expectations to be subverted when a crowd anticipates a particular outcome.
However, there may still be hope for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to experience gains in October. A recent revelation from Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson suggests that the bulk of the anticipated "Uptober" will not commence until after the 19th.
This aligns with historical data that supports a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in October. Since 2018, the cryptocurrency has consistently performed positively during this month, with an average gain of over 14% and a median return of around 13%. Notably, each month that concluded in the green has seen gains from the beginning.
While October 2024 may not live up to "Uptober" expectations initially, if the median over Bitcoin's 11-years of public trading is to be believed, then there should be at least two more weeks before giving up completely.
However, one thing is certain: with the influx of new market participants, particularly institutions, old patterns will no longer apply as easily, necessitating a higher level of sophistication among retail investors to maintain their presence and profitability in the market.
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