This explosion of public spending, coupled with a decline in tax revenues, is putting severe pressure on federal finances. Donald Trump, on the verge of regaining the White House, will have to reconcile his promises of tax cuts with the need to contain the debt.
The United States government has announced that its budget deficit has reached $711 billion in just three months, marking a 39% increase compared to the previous year. This surge in public spending, coupled with a decline in tax revenues, is putting severe pressure on federal finances. As Donald Trump prepares to potentially return to the White House, he will have to reconcile his promises of tax cuts with the need to contain the debt. To assist him in this endeavor, Elon Musk has been appointed to lead a commission dedicated to government efficiency. His goal is to reduce federal spending by $2 trillion, although a half-reached goal would already be a “super result,” according to Musk. Between budgetary austerity and economic imperatives, the future administration finds itself facing a perilous equation.
An Uncontrollable Deficit: Exploding Public SpendingThe Treasury Department has published a critical report on the state of American public finances. In just three months, federal spending has reached $1.8 trillion, showing an 11% increase compared to the previous year. This surge is largely due to increased spending in several key sectors. Pensions, health care for low-income individuals, and defense are among the most costly items. According to a Treasury official, this increase results notably from more intense military activity and heightened maintenance operations.
In addition to these structural expenditures, there are cyclical factors that have further worsened the deficit. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which occurred between September and October, forced the federal administration to unlock emergency funds to finance reconstruction and aid to victims. Furthermore, the burden of public debt is increasing due to high interest rates, making each loan more expensive for the state. This financial pressure is exacerbated by the fact that tax revenues have fallen by 2%, limiting the government’s ability to offset these exceptional expenses. In light of these figures, the budgetary balance seems more precarious than ever.
Trump and Musk: The Impossible Mission of Budgetary RigorAs he prepares for his return to the White House, Donald Trump is planning a broad economic reform. In accordance with his past commitments, he intends to cut taxes while implementing massive budget cuts in federal spending. His goal is clear: to rein in the soaring deficit without slowing down growth. To realize this ambition, he can rely on Elon Musk, appointed to head a commission tasked with optimizing public finances. Indeed, known for his frankness, the head of Tesla and SpaceX wasted no time in setting the tone. “It's like being in a room full of targets: you can close your eyes and be sure not to miss the mark,” he said, pointing out the numerous budgetary wastes he intends to eradicate.
However, the obstacles to this restructuring remain considerable. Musk, who originally aimed for $2 trillion in savings, now admits that achieving half of this goal would already be a notable success. Among the first measures considered are massive staff reductions within the federal bureaucracy. However, these job cuts are likely to face strong political and social opposition. The prospect of drastic budget cuts could also reignite tensions in Congress, where Democrats are firmly opposed to any reform that could weaken public services. Between stated ambitions and political realities, Trump and Musk will have to maneuver skillfully to fulfill their promises without causing institutional blockages.
If Donald Trump and Elon Musk fail to stabilize public finances, the country risks facing rising tensions in financial markets, increased inflation, and higher interest rates, making the cost of debt even harder to control. Conversely, overly brutal budget cuts could stifle growth, weaken public services, and exacerbate inequalities. The budget equation thus relies on a fragile balance between austerity and economic stimulus. Every decision will be closely scrutinized by investors, financial institutions, and citizens, while the specter of an uncontrollable deficit threatens to become a central issue of the upcoming mandate.
