Uniswap (UNI) Faces an Uphill Battle as Market Share Declines and Exchange Outflows Rise

A newly created whale wallet withdrew 461,874 Uniswap [UNI] ($4.56M) and 15.8M USDT from Binance within two days, raising speculation about a possible market shift.

A whale wallet made two large withdrawals from Binance within two days, removing 461,874 Uniswap [UNI] ($4.56M) and 15.8M USDT.

This activity sparked speculation among investors about an impending market shift, with large withdrawals often indicating upcoming price movements.

The withdrawal could signal confidence in Uniswap’s future or a change in liquidity strategies.

However, broader market trends indicate that Uniswap faces challenges that could impact its short-term outlook.

UNI’s market share slips despite strong volumes

At press time, UNI was trading at $9.02, down 2.33% in the last 24 hours. But a bigger concern was its declining decentralized exchange (DEX) market share.

Raydium overtook Uniswap in January, capturing 27% of DEX volume, while Uniswap’s share dropped from 34.5% in December to 22%.

This shift was largely driven by Solana’s rising memecoin trading activity, which attracted significant liquidity.

Moreover, growing dissatisfaction within the Ethereum community over Uniswap’s direction further pressured its position.

Exchange netflow signals growing uncertainty

Uniswap’s exchange netflow showed a decline of 3.22%, indicating that more UNI left exchanges than entered. Typically, large withdrawals signaled that investors were planning to hold for the long term, which could be bullish.

However, sustained outflows also signaled that traders lacked confidence in short-term price appreciation. Additionally, concerns over UNI’s weakening position in the DEX market might have prompted some investors to pull back.

High NVT ratio raises concerns about network activity

Finally, UNI’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio was 199.84, suggesting that the token’s valuation was high relative to its transaction volume. Historically, elevated NVT ratios indicated that a market might be overvalued.

So, despite the recent whale accumulation, on-chain activity did not fully support UNI’s current price. A high NVT ratio often preceded price corrections, as it indicated that an asset was trading at a premium without sufficient transaction demand.

Uniswap was priced within a descending wedge at press time, a pattern that usually preceded a breakout. The key resistance levels to watch were $12.71 and $15, while $8.17 remained strong support.

If UNI breached above the wedge, it could signal a bullish reversal. However, failure to hold above support could lead to further downside pressure.

Therefore, the next few trading sessions were critical in determining Uniswap’s near-term price direction.

Weakening trader confidence

Open Interest in Uniswap Futures dropped by 8.85%, reaching $235.12M, suggesting that traders were closing positions due to market uncertainty.

Moreover, long liquidations ($237K) surpassed short liquidations ($22.7K) by a large margin, indicating that buyers were being liquidated as prices fell.

Thisرافیک indicated a bearish market sentiment, with traders reducing leverage and exiting positions. If open interest continued to fall, UNI might struggle to gain momentum.