Toncoin (TON) Price at the Edge: Is This the Last Chance to Buy Before Liftoff?

Toncoin (TON) is getting close to a key resistance level, and that has traders wondering, will it break out or pull back?

Toncoin (TON) is heating up as it trades at the edge of a key resistance level. Will it breakout or pullback from here?

As of Thursday morning, July 27, Toncoin is changing hands at $3.89, up about 1.5% in the last 24 hours. Trading volume has also increased substantially, with a nearly 50% surge.

Top analyst Crypto Patel shared an analysis on X, formerly Twitter, suggesting that the TON price is nearing the upper limit of a descending trendline, which has acted as resistance since mid-2024.

The token is up 27% from a prior accumulation level of around $3.20. Patel also notes the presence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $3.33 and $2.95, which may offer a high-probability entry if they are to be tested again.

Support remains strong at $2.50, a level that has acted as a demand zone and confirmed structural integrity through previous retests.

Toncoin Price Action and Technical Setup

On the weekly chart, TON is approaching the resistance range of $4.15 to $4.50. This area aligns with a multi-month descending trendline from December 2023. If the price breaches this zone, analysts anticipate a potential mid-term rally toward the $7.00–$10.00 range. The structure mirrors a previous breakout and retest pattern that led to a sharp move upward in early 2024.

The token’s long-term accumulation range appears to be between $2.50 and $3.50. Buyers have previously stepped in at these levels, creating a solid base that supports bullish momentum. If Toncoin fails to break resistance in the near term, the FVG zone could be tested again before any continuation higher.

TON On-Chain Data and Ecosystem Growth

On-chain analyst Hitesh Malviya shares that TON’s daily active wallets have reached approximately 130,000, while the total number is over 41 million. Despite limited growth in traditional metrics, the ecosystem is expanding through monetization layers integrated within the Telegram platform.

These initiatives include TON NFT marketplaces, a usernames trading system, and games that reward users in TON. New features such as trading Telegram stickers aim to increase user engagement and platform liquidity. These developments showcase a shift toward incentivizing user activity by tokenizing existing social features.

$TON is forming an uptrend right now while the whole market is going down.I didn't find any significant growth metrics on the fundamental side, but one thing we should all consider is that TON has over 41M onchain wallets, and they are growing that wallet base every day, which is an incredible feat. In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, it's becoming clear that protocols must adapt to survive. Many 'old' protocols are struggling to find their footing in this new era, leading many to abandon their previous outlooks. In this case, we see that the new narrative is focused on an integration scope, forging partnerships to expand into new markets.

It’s also important to add that the broader crypto market is showing mixed signals with Bitcoin struggling to hold onto gains. However, TON is presenting relative strength, which could attract interest from both retail and institutional traders.

The next few trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether Toncoin can sustain its momentum and continue higher, or if it pulls back to retest previous support.