Solana (SOL) faces scrutiny after failing to hold above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $133

This level now acts as key overhead resistance for the altcoin. The SOL token currently sits near a crucial technical point.

Solana (SOL) is currently facing scrutiny as it fails to hold above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $133. This level now acts as key overhead resistance for the altcoin.

The SOL token is also sitting at a crucial technical point, with crypto analyst "Mags" highlighting two distinct possibilities ahead: a strong bounce towards new highs, or a slow price bleed toward lower support levels.

What are Mags' Two Primary Scenarios for SOL?

As per his analysis, SOL hit a new all-time high (ATH) earlier this cycle at $295, but proved unable to sustain momentum above it. It also saw a significant bearish divergence appearing on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) around that time, suggesting weakening underlying strength prior to the recent pullback.

SOL is now testing a key horizontal support level, which has reportedly held strong over the past year and aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement mark derived from a previous price swing. The daily RSI is currently reading near 40, a level which Mags noted previously acted as a strong support zone for SOL's price during prior corrections.

If history repeats, a price reversal could occur from this confluence of horizontal support and RSI readings near 40, allowing SOL to potentially reclaim upward momentum. However, a decisive breakdown below the $117 area could signal prolonged downside pressure instead.

"Two primary scenarios at current levels for $SOL based on:

- Key horizontal support at $117

- RSI readings at 40

Either a bounce from this confluence of support and RSI, setting up potential to retest Fib resistance at $161 and prior all-time highs

Or a break below support and continued downside pressure towards Fib support at $90 and the 100-day EMA"

SOL/BTC Pair Also at Key Technical Juncture

The SOL/BTC trading pair reflects a similar situation, also sitting at a crucial technical juncture according to Mags. Another chart shared by the analyst shows SOL was recently rejected from a long-term falling trendline resistance against Bitcoin, forming lower highs.

The pair currently tests support near the critical 0.618 Fibonacci level, which adds technical confluence, highlighting the importance of the current support zone for SOL's performance relative to both the US dollar and Bitcoin.

That long-term SOL/BTC trendline resistance has remained unbroken for months, indicating persistent overhead selling pressure on SOL compared to Bitcoin during that period. If SOL/BTC can decisively reclaim this trendline, it could signal a bullish resurgence for Solana versus Bitcoin.

Conversely, failure to hold the current 0.618 Fib support here could lead to further relative downside, potentially confirming the bearish divergence implications seen on the USDT pair chart.

"A bit more context on $SOL, BTC pair testing 0.618 support after facing rejection from the falling trendline, setting up another technical confluence for the above scenarios.

Trendline resistance has held strong for months, showing persistent selling pressure on $SOL vs $BTC during that period. A decisive close above could signal a return to buying pressure."

Looking at the daily SOL/USDT chart, Bollinger Bands (BB) offer additional context. The price currently trades below the middle BB band (around $130.76). It now approaches a test of the lower BB band support, located near $118.92.