Solana (SOL) price forecast: Market uncertainty results in negative year-to-date returns for altcoins

Solana (SOL) price could receive a boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to start reducing interest rates again soon.

Crypto market uncertainty has resulted in year-to-date returns being negative for altcoins in the top 10, including Solana, while traders' fearful sentiment and the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's tariff announcements have brought a broad selloff in the market. However, Solana has bucked the market-wide decline with a steady climb in the past 10 days.

Solana (SOL) price could receive a boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to start reducing interest rates again soon. Traders expect three to four quarter percentage point cuts in 2025.

Solana ended its downward trend on March 10 and has been consolidating around $135, a key level for the Ethereum alternative token.

At the time of writing, SOL trades at $138.75.

SOL rallied nearly 20% in the past week and nearly 8% in the past month.

The support level for the altcoin is at $125.82, and it coincides with the upper boundary of an imbalance zone on the SOL/USDT daily price chart.

Two key momentum indicators, RSI and MACD support a bullish thesis in Solana. The green histogram bars above the neutral line and RSI sloping upwards with a reading of 56 suggest an underlying positive momentum in SOL price uptrend.

Solana could rally 13.33% and test the $152.90 level, a key resistance and previously a key support for the altcoin. If Solana successfully flips the $152.90 level from resistance to support, a rally towards resistance at $180, a sticky resistance for the altcoin throughout March and the first two weeks of April 2025.

SOL on-chain analysis

On-chain data from Nansen compares activity across Solana, Base and Ethereum. SOL leads with over 4 million active addresses in the past seven days. Base is second and Ethereum ranks lowest.

Higher count of active addresses shows the token's relevance and demand among market participants.

Comparing DEX volume across the three chains, Solana leads with over $5.48 billion, while Ethereum ranks second at $975 million and Base follows with $465 million.

In terms of transactions, Solana leads with 52 million transactions in the past seven days, while Ethereum and Base lag behind, according to Nansen data. This is consistent with data for active addresses.

In terms of fees generated by the top 5 chains, Solana is second best with a 17% increase in active addresses, nearly 9% increase in transactions and 42% gain in fees generated in the last seven days, per Nansen data.

Santiment data shows a large spike in social dominance on Friday, up from 8.30% on April 15 to 21.59% on April 18. Alongside a rise in social dominance, total open interest in Solana climbed, in terms of USD.

This implies that the total value of open long and short positions in Solana has increased in the same timeframe, supporting a thesis for a rally in Solana price.