Ripple (XRP) price has declined to $2.25 on Friday, down 30% from the recent peak of $3.10 reached when the US SEC confirmed XRP ETF filings by Grayscale in February.

XRP price surged 5% to reclaim the $2.30 support level following reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could classify XRP as a commodity

Ripple (XRP) price dropped to $2.3 on Friday, down 30% from a recent peak of $3.1, which was reached when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed crypto ETF filings by Grayscale in February.

Key technical indicators on the XRP/USD weekly charts show critical levels the token must cross to hit $20 if the ETF filings are approved.

What Happened?

Ripplle (XRP) price rose 5% to reclaim the $2.3 support level following reports that the S.E.C. could classify XRP as a commodity in its ongoing legal battle with Ripple Labs.

This development is part of a potential settlement framework that could remove regulatory barriers surrounding XRP ETF approval.

Sources close to the negotiations said on March 14 that S.E.C. officials are discussing whether to treat XRP similarly to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are already considered commodities under U.S. law.

If XRP secures commodity status, it could facilitate the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund, a move that has driven speculation among investors.

Crypto market analysts noted that an official S.E.C. statement confirming XRP’s commodity classification could act as a catalyst for a major price rally.

The last time similar speculation surfaced, XRP price surged from $0.90 to $3.1 in less than two months.

If the S.E.C. provides regulatory clarity soon, XRP could test resistance levels at $3.50 and $5 before eyeing a more ambitious target at $20.

When Could The US S.E.C. Approve An XRP ETF?

The timeline for an XRP ETF approval depends on several key regulatory developments.

The S.E.C. is currently reviewing multiple crypto ETF applications, including those for Ethereum and XRP, amid increasing pressure from institutional investors seeking diversified exposure to digital assets.

Industry experts predict that an XRP ETF could gain approval in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, depending on how Ripple’s legal battle unfolds.

If Ripple successfully secures commodity status for XRP and resolves the S.E.C. lawsuit through a settlement, the regulatory pathway for an XRP ETF could become significantly clearer.

Historically, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 triggered a wave of institutional inflows that pushed BTC price to new all-time highs.

A similar scenario could unfold for XRP if the S.E.C. greenlights a dedicated ETF product.

Analysts project that an XRP ETF could attract over $5 billion in inflows within the first few months, potentially pushing XRP price toward $10 in the short term and $20 in a prolonged bullish cycle.

With growing institutional interest and positive regulatory momentum, XRP remains one of the top contenders for the next big ETF approval.

The next major catalysts to watch include upcoming court rulings in the Ripple vs. S.E.C. case and further statements from S.E.C. Chair Gary Gensler on the regulatory framework for crypto-based ETFs.

XRP Price Forecast 2025: Is $20 A Viable Target?

After retracing from a recent high of $3.10, XRP price is consolidating around $2.38, with technical indicators on the XRP/USD weekly charts hinting at a potential move toward the $20 target by 2025.

The Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart show an expansion phase, suggesting increased volatility, while the price remains above the midline support, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

The MACD histogram continues to trend positively, confirming strong upward momentum, although the signal line crossing above 0.23 warrants caution.

A bullish scenario unfolds if XRP reclaims the $2.57 resistance and sustains a monthly close above this level.

This would confirm support at the upper Bollinger Band, paving the way for a continuation toward the next psychological resistance at $5, where historical selling pressure previously emerged.

If buying pressure sustains through 2024, a breakout above $5 could open the door for a parabolic rise, with Fibonacci extensions hinting at $10 and beyond, fueled by ETF speculation and surging institutional adoption.

Conversely, a bearish divergence in MACD or a failure to hold $2.00 as support could signal a deeper correction.

A breakdown below $1.90 would expose XRP to further downside, potentially testing the $1.00 psychological floor before a renewed uptrend.

However, considering the current technical setup, the path of least resistance appears to be upward.

1. Can XRP price reach $20 if the SEC approves an ETF?

Yes, XRP price could hit $20 if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves an XRP ETF and technical indicators on the XRP/USD weekly charts show the key levels the token must cross for this to happen