Polymarket Odds Now Assign an 83% Chance of an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Being Approved by July 2025

The surge in optimism follows a wave of filings from major asset managers, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares.

Polymarket traders are betting heavily on the approval of a XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) by July 2025, with traders assigning an 83% probability to this event. This optimism is fueled by a wave of filings from major asset managers seeking to launch XRP ETFs.

According to Polymarket, traders are now pricing in a 19% increase in the probability of an XRP ETF approval in just one week. This surge in optimism corresponds with Grayscale's bold move to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF.

On Jan. 30, the asset manager filed a 19b-4 application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to list its XRP ETF on NYSE Arca. Grayscale's XRP Trust holds over $16 million in assets, making it a significant institutional product linked to XRP.

CoinShares, ProShares, REX Shares, and Bitwise have also joined the race to launch an XRP ETF, submitting applications to the SEC. These filings follow the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which attracted major institutional inflows.

XRP price is once again making waves, and traders can't help but notice the striking similarities to the token's explosive 2017 breakout. XRP is currently trading at $3.02, with speculation surrounding an XRP ETF driving fresh momentum.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks points out that XRP has just broken out of a massive pattern, which is more than double the size of its 2017 setup. Back then, the token went on to skyrocket 2,900%, hitting an all-time high of $3.84 in just a few months. Marks suggests that if history repeats itself, XRP could be looking at a run toward $99—a staggering 2,700% gain from current levels.

Meanwhile, technical indicators show key resistance at $3.34, a level XRP must break to challenge its 2018 all-time high of $3.84. Analysts predict that XRP could test the $4 mark by mid-February if momentum continues.

If momentum keeps building, hitting $4 by mid-February isn't out of the question. With Polymarket odds for an XRP ETF approval at 83%, institutional money could be the final push XRP needs to make history again.

XRP's ETF hopes were once dashed under Biden's SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who pushed back against crypto-friendly policies. But now, things are quickly changing. With Trump back in office and Mark Uyeda leading the SEC, many anticipate a softening stance toward crypto, paving the way for more ETF approvals.

In January, Ripple Labs President Monica Long fueled speculation by stating that an XRP ETF could soon be a reality. Additionally, FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett hinted at more ETF filings to come, bolstering expectations that regulators may be easing their stance on crypto funds.

The SEC's recent closed-door meeting on Ripple's legal case has also sparked curiosity. While no details have been disclosed, some speculate that a resolution could clear the way for an XRP ETF. If that happens, XRP could be the next big name in the ETF boom.

Following Trump's inauguration, the Polymarket odds peaked at 89% but later cooled to 82% after the SEC's internal discussions on Ripple. If regulatory tailwinds continue, XRP could be the next crypto asset to join the ETF market. Now, all eyes are on the SEC's next move—will it approve an XRP ETF by July?

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.