Peter Brandt Predicts a 43% Drop for XRP if the Coin Fails to Stay Above $1.9

Ripple’s XRP has been under significant pressure lately, failing to sustain momentum despite some positive updates regarding its ongoing lawsuit with the SEC.

Recently, renowned price chart analyst Peter Brandt has issued a bearish forecast for Ripple’s XRP, suggesting a potential 43% drop if the coin slips below critical support levels.

Brandt, who is a respected figure in the world of technical analysis, has been following XRP’s price movements closely. He recently pointed out a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern forming on XRP’s price chart. According to the analyst, if XRP fails to stay above the $1.9 level, it could see a drastic decline, potentially reaching as low as $1.07. This represents a 43% drop from its current levels, a significant move for the altcoin.

His analysis highlighted the range-bound nature of XRP’s price action. Any price movement below $1.9 could trigger a sharp sell-off, leading to the formation of the H&S pattern’s target at $1.07. His comments suggest that traders should be vigilant, especially if XRP breaks this support zone. For Brandt, staying above $2.5 remains a key resistance point to avoid further downside risks. But if XRP drops below $1.9, it spells trouble for long-term holders.

XRP Faces Uphill Battle

XRP has been struggling to sustain momentum despite some positive updates regarding its ongoing lawsuit with the SEC. The altcoin has struggled to break past key resistance levels and continues to face challenges in a bear market.

As the chart shows, XRP has been unable to rally above the $2.5 resistance point throughout Q1 2025. The token has slid about 30% from its record high of $3.40. Although recent legal developments had fueled hope for Ripple’s supporters, the market has been largely unresponsive.

Grim Outlook From On-Chain Signals

On-chain signals are also presenting a rather bleak picture for XRP. Data from Santiment highlights a dramatic decline in the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger. From a peak of 74,000 active addresses in December 2024, the count has decreased by 62%, with only 28,000 addresses active in March 2025.

This signals that fewer users are engaging with the XRP ecosystem, suggesting a potential loss of interest from both retail and institutional investors.

Furthermore, Santiment’s MVRV Z score, which tracks whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its price, indicates that XRP is overpriced at current levels. A reading above 1 on the MVRV Z score suggests more holders are in profit and might sell, putting more pressure on the price to move down.

As of the latest data, the MVRV Z score for XRP stands at 2.8, which indicates that long-term holders have unrealized gains of 2.8x to 6x. This could induce profit-taking behavior, adding more downward pressure on XRP’s price action.

Is Some Accumulation Brewing?

Despite the bearish signals, some on-chain data offers a glimmer of hope for XRP bulls. According to data from Coinglass, a significant amount of XRP has been withdrawn from exchanges in recent weeks.

In March 2025 alone, over $290 million worth of XRP was moved out of exchanges, suggesting that some investors are betting on a potential rally in the near future. If these holders are correct, and demand for XRP increases, the altcoin could see a reversal.

However, for this scenario to unfold, XRP would need to hold key support levels. The $2 and $1.4 price points are crucial for the token’s short-term outlook.

As long as XRP stays above its 200-day moving average (DMA), which is currently acting as dynamic support, its bullish market structure remains intact. If XRP drops below these levels, it could trigger a more substantial sell-off, potentially pushing the price toward the $1.07 target.