Nvidia Stock: A Buy or Sell After CES 2025 Amid Export Restriction Reports?

Artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has seen its stock experience significant turbulence in recent weeks. Following a dip after CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES 2025 and reports of impending export restrictions, investors are debating whether Nvidia stock is a buy or sell at current levels.

After Tuesday’s decline, Nvidia shares appear to be finding some support at their 50-day moving average, a critical technical level. This support indicates some stability, although news of potential Biden administration export restrictions could lead to increased volatility in the stock.

The restrictions, which are aimed at limiting AI chip exports to most countries and include a ban on China, could be announced as early as Friday. Such measures would likely impact Nvidia’s sales and growth outlook.

At CES 2025, Jensen Huang unveiled Nvidia’s latest AI innovations, including the Cosmos platform for robotics training and the company’s smallest AI supercomputer to date.

The Cosmos platform is designed to handle tasks like video search, summarization, and generating virtual world state, targeting advanced AI applications for autonomous vehicles and humanoids.

However, investors were more keenly awaiting updates on Nvidia’s Blackwell chips and hints about its upcoming Rubin chips, both of which are integral to the company’s data center business.

Nvidia's data center revenue is set to cross $113 billion for the fiscal year, dwarfing its competitors by a significant margin. But for many, these futuristic ventures pale in comparison to Nvidia’s core AI chip production.

In 2024, Nvidia enjoyed a banner year as retail investors poured nearly $30 billion into its stock, overtaking Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the most popular pick among such investors.

The stock also reached a market cap of $3 trillion, putting it in the same league as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Nvidia replaced Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, joining the Magnificent Seven tech leaders.

But December was also a rocky month for Nvidia, with several negative news items emerging:

In a recent note, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore named Nvidia a top 2025 pick but trimmed his price target slightly.

Moore highlighted that delays in Blackwell chip production are unlikely and that shifting from older Hopper chips to Blackwell could ease supply chain pressures.

Other analysts have noted the rise of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) that compete with Nvidia's GPUs. While ASICs may gain ground in specific applications, GPUs are expected to remain dominant for AI training purposes due to their versatility.

Nvidia stock is currently showing resilience at its 50-day moving average, a key technical indicator. But several key points must be considered by investors:

For long-term investors, Nvidia stock remains a compelling choice given the company's leadership in AI, strong fundamentals, and dominant market position. However, the looming export restrictions and recent stock volatility suggest exercising caution.

Short-term traders may want to wait for clarity on regulatory developments before making a move.