3 To 6 Months Old Bitcoin Buyers Have Been Holding Strong Recently, Showing Conviction Not Capitulation

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the investors who bought at the Bitcoin top are showing conviction, not capitulation.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode explains how investors who bought at the Bitcoin top are showing conviction, not capitulation.

3 To 6 Months Old Bitcoin Buyers Have Been Holding Strong Recently

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed a couple of Bitcoin investor cohorts. One of these groups is the “long-term holder” (LTH) cohort, which includes the BTC investors who bought their coins more than 155 days ago.

Statistically, the longer a holder keeps their coins dormant, the less likely they become to move the coins at any point. As such, the LTHs with their appreciable time represent the resolute side of the market.

Though, while these investors can be termed as ‘diamond hands,’ it’s not as if they never participate in any selling at all. In fact, during two selling waves in the current cycle alone, the group has done a total distribution of 2 million BTC.

This chart shows the change in the LTH supply. Credit: Glassnode

From the above graph, it’s visible that the first LTH selloff was followed by a period of re-accumulation, which brought the group’s supply back to almost the same level as before the distribution wave.

The second distribution phase, which occurred between October 2024 and January 2025, is also similarly being followed by an accumulation wave, as the LTH supply has been rising during the last couple of months. “This cyclical balance may be stabilizing price action,” notes the analytics firm.

Something to note is that whenever the LTH supply rises, it doesn’t represent any buying that’s occurring in the ‘now.’ Rather, it shows that some accumulation occurred 155 days ago and those coins have now been held long enough to become a part of the cohort.

This five-month cutoff puts the latest LTH acquisition point at the end of November, which means that the recent increase in the indicator correlates to buying that took place during the BTC rally to prices above $90,000.

This five-month cutoff puts the latest LTH acquisition point at the end of November, which means that the recent increase in the indicator correlates to buying that took place during the BTC rally to prices above $90,000.

Many of the November buyers should still be in the red, but these investors have continued to hold, becoming the fabled HODLers.

Another interesting group of investors is the 3-month to 6-month cohort. This group contains the holders who are transitioning into the LTHs. A large part of these investors would have bought at or near the price all-time high (ATH).

As of December 2024, this group still has around 680,000 BTC, which is valued at roughly $57 billion at today’s prices. In the last three months alone, the wealth of this group has increased by 20%, even as the Bitcoin price has stayed largely range-bound.

Naturally, the weak hands who got in during the Bitcoin top would have already capitulated long ago and never matured into the 3 months to 6 months range, but it’s still significant that those who are left aren’t shaken by the market volatility.

BTC Price Today

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $84,300. The leading cryptocurrency is down by more than 3% in the seven days.