Market Outlook and Action Plan for 2025

Original author: 0xKyle

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily

Translator: Azuma

Editor's note: This article is a market forecast and response plan for 2025 by well-known analyst and trader 0xKyle.

In the following article, 0xKyle analyzes and hypothesizes multiple possible scenarios for Bitcoin and altcoins in 2025, and discusses why active portfolio management will outperform passive portfolio management in the new year. 0xKyle also lists his favorite sectors and tracks at the end of the article, which may be helpful for the layout of the new year.

The following is the original content of 0xKyle, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.

GM.

Predicting the future is difficult, but as traders and investors we should have a plan. Like all other plans, this one will change as the underlying scenario changes - the market is constantly evolving. This plan is based solely on my predictions of market developments over the next year. It provides insights into my thinking through 2025, but should not be construed as financial advice.

Let me first review my plan for 2024 (Odaily Note: Since this part is mainly a review of Kyle’s personal operations, this article chooses to pass it directly).

Let’s jump right in. As usual, I’ll start by discussing the macro expectations/scenarios and then move on to the thematic narrative.

Scenario Assumptions

A new cycle of “2024 - ??” has begun. I personally believe that this cycle began at the end of 2023, but if we look at this cycle in a more rigorous way, the progress so far is:

→On January 10, Bitcoin ETF was launched;

→BTC hit a new high, briefly triggering altcoin season;

→ Then it entered the volatile period of Q2 and Q3, with BTC hovering between $50,000 and $60,000;

→After the election day, BTC hit a new high, rising all the way to $100,000;

→It has not been able to effectively break through the 100,000 mark for the time being and is currently hovering above 90,000 US dollars.

It is important to note that the alt season often begins at the high point of Bitcoin. The first time was when BTC was hitting $69,000 but failed to break through effectively; the second time was when BTC was hitting $100,000.

The next altcoin cycle will likely begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can’t predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in Q1 2025, it’s also possible that we’ll see a repeat of the 2024 Q2/Q3 volatility in the coming months — I have to be prepared for that. So here are all the scenarios I drew up.

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together

In that case, the rise will be the only theme in 2025, and we will enter another round of alt season. As Bitcoin continues to rise, all currencies will perform well, and we will repeat the last two months of 2024, with the entire market "rising, rising, rising".

Likelihood: 30% - 40%

Corresponding strategy: Take advantage of the current "panic" to buy and get on board strong altcoins.

Hypothesis 2: Bitcoin rises, while other currencies rise slightly

This will be a repeat of 2024, where we will see altcoins oscillating over the next few months, but Bitcoin is more bullish (because only Bitcoin is going up). Some altcoins will also perform well.

Likelihood: 50% - 60%

Corresponding strategy: Still buy during the current “panic”, but you need to invest in altcoins in specific sectors. The key is to avoid areas with high attention and look for the next narrative that may rise.

Hypothetical Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall

This means that the top is now in for altcoins, although Bitcoin will continue to perform well.

Likelihood: 20% - 30%

Corresponding strategy: Sell all altcoins. Although we have to bear some retracements, if the altcoins do not rise, we may have to sell them all.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall

Likelihood: 10% - 20%.

I believe several things will happen. I believe BTC’s next new high will not take as long as 2024 because the backdrop of macro tailwinds is real. In a cycle where the regulatory environment is hell, ETFs have been launched, but TradFi still