Mark Carney recently secured the Liberal Party's leadership contest to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada's 24th prime minister

Polymarket reported that Carney's odds of winning the next federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, had increased by 23% up to 49%

Mark Carney, the new leader of the Liberal Party, has seen his odds of winning the next federal election rise in the past month, while Pierre Poilievre’s chances have decreased, according to Polymarket bettors.

The candidates vying to become Canada’s next prime minister are a hot topic among bettors, with odds shifting frequently based on various factors, such as party leadership changes, economic performance, and public opinion polls.

As of Wednesday, bettors on the prediction market platform gave Carney a 49% chance of winning the next federal election, which is scheduled for October 20, 2025. This represents a 23% increase from last month, when his odds stood at 26%.

Meanwhile, Poilievre’s odds have decreased by 21%, dropping from 72% in February to 51%.

On the other hand, the odds of the leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, winning the election have remained relatively stable at 16%, showing a slight decrease of 3% from last month.

Carney’s expertise in business could help him navigate economic challenges

Carney recently faced the task of rallying the Liberal Party to choose a new leader after Justin Trudeau announced he would be stepping down. The party selected Carney, known for his role as a former central banker and his expertise in business, to guide the Liberals through the historical tension with the U.S. and the growing fears of a trade war during Trump’s administration.

This will be Carney’s first time delving into Canadian politics at the highest level as a federal election approaches. On Sunday, after securing 85.9% of the vote on the first ballot, he expressed his commitment to serving the Canadian people.

“I will work day and night with one purpose, which is to build a stronger Canada for everyone,” he stated.

President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada's imports could potentially spark a trade war with Canada. In response to Ontario placing a 25% tariff on ‘electricity’ coming into the United States, Trump instructed his Secretary of Commerce to add an additional 25% tariff, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the United States from Canada, one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world.

Ontario premier Doug Ford threatened to shut off the US electricity supply entirely.

Mark Carney said he would continue to pressure America in response to Trump’s tariff actions.

“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade,” he said in a post on X.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that Trump has yet to speak with Carney but that “his phone is always open to leaders who wish to speak with him.”

Following these developments, Canadians preferred Carney over Poilievre due to his business expertise and being a former central banker. Poilievre’s support for Bitcoin and ownership of a Canadian-issued Bitcoin ETF had not been a major focus of the Canadian campaign.

Canadian federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, could be called sooner

The next federal election is scheduled for 20 October 2025. However, it might occur earlier due to certain circumstances, including when the government general accepts the prime minister’s resignation after the government is defeated in a confidence vote in parliament or when it accepts his advice to dissolve the government.

Pierre Poilievre and the leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, have already declared they will call for a vote of no confidence after parliament resumes.

With Carney’s record still fresh and tensions with the U.S. rising, the next election—whenever it happens—will be a test of whether his economic acumen and aspirations for Canada can earn him a long-term mandate.

At the same time, Poilievre and Singh’s pressure for an early election indicates the opposition believes it has a window of opportunity to challenge Carney before he settles into the role.Cryptopolitan Academy: Want to grow your money in 2025? Learn how to do it with DeFi in our upcoming webclass. Save Your Spot