Gold Price Prediction: Navigating Record Highs Amidst Geopolitical Turmoil

As of April 13, 2025, gold has surged to unprecedented levels, with futures settling around $3,240 per ounce.

Gold futures rose on Thursday amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and a mixed reading on U.S. inflation.

Futures for December gold rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session. Prices surged more than 20% in 2025 amid a broad shift toward safe-haven assets.

The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

"We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025," said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

"We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year."

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

"We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

"Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter."

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

"We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting."

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.output: As of April 13, 2025, gold futures settled slightly higher on Thursday, as geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine continued and mixed reading on U.S. inflation kept traders attentive.

December gold futures rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session.

The world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

“We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025,” said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

“We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year.”

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

“We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

“Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter.”

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

“We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting.”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.