黄金价格预测：在地缘政治动荡中导航记录高

截至2025年4月13日，黄金已经飙升至前所未有的水平，期货定居于每盎司3,240美元左右。

Gold futures rose on Thursday amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and a mixed reading on U.S. inflation.

由于乌克兰正在进行的地缘政治动荡以及对美国通货膨胀的混杂读物，黄金期货在周四上升。

Futures for December gold rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session. Prices surged more than 20% in 2025 amid a broad shift toward safe-haven assets.

12月黄金的期货上涨了0.3％，以$ 3,240.40的价格降至会议早期的3,200美元水平后，每盎司3,240.40美元。在2025年，价格飙升了20％以上，而在朝着避风港资产的广泛转变中。

The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

根据最近的一份票据，世界上最大的对冲基金Bridgewater Associates现在预计到2025年第四季度黄金将上涨至2,000美元。

"We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025," said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

创始人雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）领导的布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的战略家说：“我们预计，从2025年初的升高水平较高的利率环境和降低通货膨胀率较低。”

"We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year."

“我们还预计，美国经济活动的逐渐放缓，并从2025年从年前早些时候恢复到2025年的失业率较低。”

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

他们的预测是在高盛的一位顶级经济学家周四警告说，美国可能会在2025年陷入衰退。

"We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）首席经济学家扬·哈齐斯（Jan Hatzius）说：“我们现在希望美国在2025年陷入衰退。”

"Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter."

“此前预测了2024年中期的经济下滑后，我们现在预测较浅的收缩，将于2025年第一季度开始，并持续到第二季度。”

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

但是，在其他经济学家的分歧中，哈齐乌斯说，他并不希望2025年的衰退与许多经济学家预测2024年的经济衰退一样严重。

"We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting."

“我们预测的收缩比我们先前预测的缩水较浅，我们预计它比《华尔街日报》报道的一位经济学家现在所期望的不那么严重。”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.output: As of April 13, 2025, gold futures settled slightly higher on Thursday, as geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine continued and mixed reading on U.S. inflation kept traders attentive.

投资者还将密切关注美国消费者价格指数的最新阅读，预计4月份将增长0.3％。道琼斯（Dow Jones）进行调查的经济学家预计，核心CPI阅读核心（CPI Reading）。输出：截至2025年4月13日，周四，黄金期货略高于略高，因为乌克兰的地缘政治动荡继续，并且对美国通货膨胀的混杂阅读保持了交易者的关注。

December gold futures rose by 0.3% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce after briefly dipping below the $3,200 level earlier in the session.

12月的黄金期货上涨了0.3％，在短暂浸入$ 3,200的水平之后，以每盎司3,240.40美元的价格定居。

The world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, now expects gold to rise to $2,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent note.

根据最近的一份票据，世界上最大的对冲基金Bridgewater Associates现在预计到2025年第四季度黄金将上涨至2,000美元。

“We expect a lower-for-longer interest rate environment and a return to lower inflation toward the second half of 2025 from the elevated levels of early 2025,” said strategists at Bridgewater, led by founder Ray Dalio.

创始人雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）领导的布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的战略家说：“我们预计，从2025年初的高度升高的利率环境和较低的通货膨胀率恢复到较低的通货膨胀。”

“We also expect a gradual slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and a return to a lower level of unemployment in 2025 from the lows seen earlier in the year.”

“我们还预计，与今年早些时候相比，美国经济活动逐渐放缓，并在2025年恢复到较低的失业率。”

Their predictions come after a top economist at Goldman Sachs also warned on Thursday that the U.S. could yet fall into a recession in 2025.

他们的预测是在高盛的一位顶级经济学家周四警告说，美国可能会在2025年陷入衰退。

“We now expect the U.S. to tip into recession in 2025,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的首席经济学家扬·哈齐斯（Jan Hatzius）说：“我们现在希望美国在2025年陷入衰退。”

“Having previously predicted a mid-2024 downturn, we’re now forecasting a shallower contraction to begin in the first quarter of 2025 and continue through the second quarter.”

“以前预测了2024年中期的经济下滑后，我们现在预测较浅的收缩，将于2025年第一季度开始，并持续到第二季度。”

But in a divergence from other economists, Hatzius said he did not expect the 2025 recession to be as severe as the one many economists predicted for 2024.

但是，在其他经济学家的分歧中，哈齐乌斯说，他并不希望2025年的衰退与许多经济学家预测2024年的经济衰退一样严重。

“We’re forecasting a shallower contraction than the one we previously predicted for 2024, and we expect it to be less severe than the one economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are now expecting.”

“我们预测的收缩比我们先前预测的2024年收缩，我们希望它比《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）投票的一位经济学家现在所期望的不那么严重。”

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the latest reading of the U.S. consumer price index, which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in April. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% increase in the core CPI reading.

投资者还将密切关注美国消费者价格指数的最新阅读，预计4月份将增长0.3％。道琼斯（Dow Jones）进行调查的经济学家预计，核心CPI阅读量会增加0.4％。