Dogecoin (DOGE) May Underperform This Bull Cycle as Its Correlation With XRP's 2021 Fractal Grows Stronger

A recent analysis has suggested that Dogecoin may underperform this bull cycle as its correlation with XRP’s 2021 fractal grows stronger.

Recently, an analysis has suggested that Dogecoin may underperform in this bull cycle as its correlation with XRP’s 2021 fractal grows stronger.

Dogecoin began the bull cycle with strong bullish sentiments. The doggy-themed meme coin also benefited from its bromance with Elon Musk and Donald Trump’s November election win.

However, Dogecoin’s massive correction since the start of 2025 has given enthusiasts a reality check. The largest meme coin by market cap has retraced over 32% since January 1, with only Avalanche (AVAX) performing worse in the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Meanwhile, the correction has drawn correlation theories between Dogecoin’s current plight and XRP’s past cyclical performance. A recent analysis suggests the meme coin market leader may pull a 2021 XRP performance in this cycle.

For perspective, XRP largely missed the 2020/2021 bull season following dark regulatory clouds around its ecosystem. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple in December 2020, impacting bullish momentum for XRP despite a broader market upward trajectory.

With the litigation, the asset managed a mere 276% surge in 2021, starkly different from its 30,452% price explosion in the 2017 bull market. XRP peaked at $1.9839 during the cycle, a high it has trumped since December.

Meanwhile, analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, has suggested that Dogecoin could experience similar price action. In a March 5 post, he highlighted a converging price action between the duo in different timelines.

XRP 2021 Fractal in Play?

Tony first asserted that Dogecoin could mirror XRP’s 2021 bull cycle in October before the meteoric broader market rally the next month. He shared that both charts showed a strong correlation, and DOGE may fully mirror the performance.

The analysis highlighted that XRP failed to sustain trading above the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at $1.604 in 2021. Although the coin closed near the level in April, it corrected 35% the previous month.

According to the analyst, XRP town massively sold the 50% Fib, while a 35% correction from the 0.618 Fib saw a strong bounce to new highs. However, the 50% Fib retracement was met with strong selling pressure, ultimately leading to a 65% correction from the 0.382 Fib.

According to the analyst, the correlation may be more apparent now as Dogecoin is closely following the same price action.

The crypto analyst noted that the narrative unfolded when discussing the 160% November surge in the meme coin price. The move took DOGE to the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.4198, with the asset peaking at $0.4846 in December.

However, the meme coin has corrected over 56% from the peak close to the 0.5 Fibonacci extension, exactly as XRP did in 2021. Following the growing correlation, the analyst insinuated that DOGE may have reached its cyclical top.