(CoinChapter.com) — XRP Price Prediction: Descending Triangle Pattern Pressures XRP Toward Breakdown

Ripple's (XRP) recent price action reflects a complex interplay between macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, notably the resurgence of Trump-era trade wars.

NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) – Recent price action in Ripple’s XRP reflects a complicated interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions—most notably the Trump-era trade wars—and technical analysis.

As of April 1, 2025, XRP trades around $2.18, managing to hold onto March gains but lagging behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. The broader crypto market saw a sharp rally following Donald Trump’s latest economic standoff with China, pushing BTC back above $91,000 and fueling fresh interest in altcoins. However, XRP’s momentum seems to be capped.

Global markets remain on edge. Trump’s proposed tariffs have rattled equities, driving capital toward hard assets. While Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem, investors see a fractured correlation in XRP with broader risk-on sentiment. Despite recent legal wins, investors remain cautious, considering upcoming supply pressures from Ripple and ongoing macro risks. US inflation remains above 3.2%, and the Federal Reserve’s March 2025 decision to hold rates has further bifurcated risk appetite in crypto assets.

XRP continues to face resistance near its February 2025 highs. Social volume remains flat despite Ripple’s cleared path with regulators. This divergence highlights a weak narrative for XRP in a market that’s quickly pivoting toward strong catalysts.

Descending Triangle Pattern Plagues XRP

Looking at the technical analysis, XRP is trading inside a descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The structure shows a converging pattern with a static support level around $2.12 and lower highs since late 2024. This pattern usually forms during periods of consolidation or compression in price trends.

In a descending triangle, the upper boundary is defined by a series of lower highs, indicating that sellers are stepping in and limiting any attempts by buyers to push prices higher. Meanwhile, the lower boundary is defined by a static support level, where buyers are stepping in and preventing prices from falling further.

The converging lines create a triangular shape on the chart, with the apex of the triangle pointing downwards. This pattern is typically observed after a strong rally has lost steam, and it usually signals that the underlying asset is facing increasing bearish pressure.

A breakdown from a descending triangle occurs when the price moves decisively below the lower boundary of the triangle. This breakout is usually characterized by increased trading volume, as sellers overpower demand and drive prices lower.

The height of the pattern is usually used to estimate the potential magnitude of the decline. In the case of XRP, the triangle has a height of about $0.88, calculated by subtracting the support level of $2.12 from the February 2025 highs near $3.00.

After breaking down, the next key price target is obtained by extending the height of the triangle downwards from the breakout point. In this instance, breaking support at $2.12 would set up a projected downside target of around $1.27.

The lack of volume also supports the bearish thesis. Trading activity has steadily decreased during the triangle formation, showing a lack of breakout momentum. Despite settling its case with the SEC and agreeing to a $50 million fine, there has been no conviction from bulls.

Furthermore, the scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow by Ripple on April 1 adds another layer of pressure. The token unlock increases circulating supply, and with demand still weak, the market may struggle to absorb it without triggering a breakdown.

Overall, unless bulls step in with strong volume and manage to reclaim higher resistance levels, XRP remains vulnerable to a breakdown toward $1.27 in the coming weeks. A strong move above the February 2025 highs near $3.00 is needed to shift the technical bias back in favor of the bulls.

SEC Settlement Fails To Ignite Rally Amid Token Unlock

Earlier this year, Ripple Labs reached a settlement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), agreeing to pay a $50 million fine to resolve a three-and-a-half-year legal dispute over the sale of its XRP token.

The settlement, which is subject to final approval by both the SEC and the presiding court, marks a significant development in the cryptocurrency landscape.

The SEC had accused Ripple of illegally offering and selling XRP, which it claims is a security, to institutional investors without registering with the regulator. The agency’s complaint, filed in December 2020, alleged that Ripple raised over $1.3 billion through these unregistered offerings, flouting securities laws.

However, the SEC proposed settling the case for $100 million in December 2023, and in March 2025, the two parties reached an agreement to reduce the penalty further to $50 million. This decision follows a US administrative law judge’s ruling in April 2023, largely in favor of Ripple.

The judge found that several statements made by former