BTC Price Outlook: Markets Await Catalysts

BTC's price trends remain hinged on Trump's foreign policies, the Fed rate path, SBR developments, and US BTC-spot ETF flows.

The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $203.8 million over the week, decreasing from the previous week's $559.5 million. Among US-listed ETFs, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) had the highest net inflows at $160.8 million, followed by the VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBT) at $43 million.

Institutional investors continued to show strong interest in US-BTC-spot ETFs, driven by the potential for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and increasing demand for BTC as an inflation hedge.

In Utah, the House passed a bill to create an SBR, which would be funded by a portion of the state's general fund. The bill now heads to the Senate for further consideration. Several other states, including Wyoming, Texas, and Arizona, have also introduced bills related to SBRs.

At the federal level, the recently proposed Bitcoin Act, championed by Senator Lummis, would oblige the government to purchase one million BTC over five years and hold them for a minimum of two years. While the bill's passage remains uncertain, it has garnered attention and sparked discussions about a potential large-scale BTC acquisition by the US government.

Meanwhile, crypto proponents continue to advocate for the inclusion of BTC in the US government's macroeconomic data analysis. John Deaton, an attorney representing XRP holders in the SEC lawsuit, highlighted the significance of BTC in discussions on inflation and recession.

In his view, if the government were to factor BTC into its inflation readings, it would reveal a different narrative, and the střong demand for BTC could lead to a price surge if the US were to adopt the Bitcoin Act. Deaton expressed optimism that BTC could reach $1 million in such a scenario.

As the dust settles on Trump's visit to East Palestine, Ohio, and amid ongoing discussions on crypto regulation, inflation, and Federal Reserve rate hikes, let's shift our focus to the factors influencing BTC's price movements.

Throughout the week, BTC's price experienced a downturn, influenced by the absence of fresh catalysts and the broader market sell-off. However, the price recovered toward the week's end, largely driven by news of the Utah SBR bill.

From a technical perspective, BTC closed the week below the 50-day EMA but remained above the 200-day EMA. This positioning reflects bearish near-term and bullish longer-term price signals from the EMAs.

To assess the strength of the upcoming rally, traders could watch for BTC to cross above the 50-day EMA, which might indicate a bullish trend. Conversely, a sustained fall below the 200-day EMA could signal a bearish price movement.

If BTC were to experience another price surge, it could encounter resistance at the $105,000 level. A breakout above this level might open the path toward BTC's all-time high of $109,312.

On the other hand, if BTC were to encounter selling pressure and slip below the $95,000 support, it could lead to a fall toward the $90,742 support level.

With a mid-range RSI reading of 43.05, BTC has some room to fall before reaching oversold territory (RSI below 30), which might indicate an opportunity for price recovery.