Bitcoin's Next Major Move Could Be Fueled by an Unexpected Source: the U.S. Treasury

Bitcoin's next major move could be fueled by an unexpected source: the U.S. Treasury. Analysts say the department's recent $500 billion liquidity injection

The U.S. Treasury’s massive liquidity injections, recently totaling $500 billion, are a key factor driving Bitcoin’s next major move, according to some analysts.

As the government’s spending outpaces revenue, the Treasury is drawing down funds from its General Account (TGA) to keep up with obligations. This action has already boosted market liquidity and could drive the Bitcoin breakout higher.

According to macroeconomic analyst Tomas, the TGA balance has dropped sharply since February, and further injections are expected by summer.

As the Treasury ramps up liquidity injections to fund government operations, macroeconomic analyst Tomas says this will likely fuel a surge in risk assets.

With the U.S. reaching the debt ceiling and the need to finance operations, the TGA outflows have contributed more than $500 billion to the overall financial system.

This action has raised net liquidity to $6.3 trillion, and such inflows tend to act as a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Analysts at Seven Eight Nine Point at the Impact of TGA Drawdowns on Speculative Assets

Past TGA drawdowns in 2022 and 2023 triggered rallies in speculative assets, and with another $100 billion expected by April’s end, market watchers anticipate similar effects.

Moreover, if liquidity trends continue, the Bitcoin price may have the runway to push past $130,000 as early as Q3 2025.

Bitcoin’s Correlation with Global Liquidity

The macroeconomic analyst also noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity, historically around 83%, makes it a leading indicator of monetary expansion.

If talks around the debt ceiling extend through Q3, total liquidity could reach new multi-year highs, possibly pushing BTC into fresh price territory.

Combined with the possibility of stable interest rates and regulatory clarity, liquidity alone could set the stage for a rally toward $137,000. One scenario sees a bitcoin breakout occurring if these macro forces align at once. Let’s take a look at Bitcoin price predictions to see how these developments impact the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for April 15, 2025

The 1-hour BTC/USDT chart reveals Bitcoin price consolidating between a key support zone at $83,000 and resistance near $86,000. After rebounding from deeper supports around $75,000 and $79,000, the price has entered a sideways range, signaling indecision.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51, reflecting neutral momentum, with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions, unlike earlier signals where RSI extremes accurately preceded reversals.

The MACD indicator shows multiple recent death crosses (April 11 and 13), suggesting weakening bullish momentum. A flat histogram further indicates a lack of strong trend direction.

Chart 1: Analysed by vallijat007, published on TradingView, April 15, 2025

For bulls to reclaim control, a decisive breakout above $86,000 is essential. Failure to hold above $83,000 could open the door to a retest of lower support zones.

Overall, while the structure remains bullish with higher lows, the waning momentum and absence of whale-driven buying suggest caution. The market is waiting for a clear catalyst to define the next move, which could come from an unexpected source.

What to Watch Next

The Bitcoin price path to $137K hinges on more than just charts; it’s about liquidity. If the U.S. Treasury continues draining the TGA and injecting billions into the system, the crypto market could see another major leg up. But near-term momentum remains muted, with BTC stuck in a consolidation zone.

Key resistance at $86K must break for bulls to regain control. Until then, liquidity flows, macro clarity, and large-scale buyer activity will dictate whether Bitcoin’s next move is explosive or delayed. Fresh crypto news around Treasury policy or rate decisions could serve as a catalyst for movement.