Bitcoin and Other Major Cryptocurrencies Are Up Ahead of Trump's Tariffs

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are up in the past 24 hours, trying to push against a downtrend on the seven-day chart.

Donald Trump is expected to announce further tariffs on Thursday, in what might be seen as ‘Liberation Day’ for the beleaguered currency.

The post Bitcoin, Major Crypto Prices Today, April 11: BTC Tries Push Vs Downtrend, Trump Tariffs Imminentmajor crypto prices are today, April 12th, attempting to push against a downtrend seen on the seven-day chart. This comes just hours before Donald Trump is expected to impose further tariffs, despite anticipation of less severe tariffs and a 10-point increase in the Fear and Greed Index towards neutral.

However, analysts at The Kobeissi Letter have spotted another concerning trend – one that has seen the S&P 500 slide 2% since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September 2024.

Their analysis, shared on Crypto Twitter, highlighted the onset of President Trump’s trade war coinciding with the peak in 10-year note yields earlier in 2024. Yet, over the past two months, rates have seen a decline as markets priced in a recession, leading to a reduction in new lows in yields.

Further increases in the 25% auto tariff saw another drop, not yet reaching a new lower high in yields. But, crucially, the analysis showed that, as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates, the S&P 500 also sustained a 2% decline.

Its Average Return After PivotIs 1% Up Over 6 MonthsBut Historical Data Shows Further S&P 500 Declines After Rate Cuts During Recession

While the analysis showed an average return of 1% six months after the pivot, history shows further declines in the S&P 500 follow rate cuts during a recession.

In a case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 went down 6% in six months and 10% in 12 months. This is in stark contrast to the AVERAGE return of 1% six months after the pivot.

The analysis showed that, in cases of rate cuts during a bull market, the S&P 500, on average, sustained an 8% decline six months after the pivot and a 13% decline in 12 months.

It added that, with consumer sentiment at its lowest since 2022, “inflation will rebound further in March and April and Sentiment will be lower”.

Good Point: Despite the hype, no one really knows what will happen with Trump's tariffs tomorrow. My guess is they'll be less severe than expected and markets will shrug them off. But we'll see.

Another Analyst Highlights Gold As Safe Haven Of Choice

Meanwhile, with anticipation building for Donald Trump to announce further tariffs as early as Thursday morning local time in Australia, some analysts believe the market’s ‘risk appetite’ continues to decline.

Speaking to Benzinga, ADM Investor Services International Chief Economist and Global Strategist, Marc Ostwald, said that, “for the time being [reduced risk appetite] drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice.”

He added that market participants are increasingly looking to diversify away from USD exposure, “which has long been a source of concern to them”.