Bitcoin dominance and the 425M market cap threshold could signal the start of altcoin season

The crypto market is experiencing a transitional phase, marked by a consolidation of bitcoin and a stagnation of altcoins.

The crypto market is currently experiencing a transitional phase, characterized by a consolidation of bitcoin and a stagnation of altcoins. However, several technical indicators suggest that a trend reversal could be on the horizon, which could have significant implications for the remaining year.

Could the 425 billion dollar mark be the wall to fall ?

For several months now, the altcoin market has been oscillating around a critical threshold: 425 billion dollars in capitalization. As analyst Rekt Capital points out in a post on March 11, 2025, on the social network X (formerly Twitter), this level has acted as a major resistance, preventing alternative assets from taking off. However, indicators show that this barrier may be on the verge of crumbling.

Other experts, such as CryptoGoos, support this thesis. He notes that bitcoin’s dominance, currently at 61 %, could soon reach a peak. However, in each previous cycle, a peak in this metric has often been followed by a trend reversal, leading to a surge in altcoins.

The Altcoin Season Index and the Timeline of a Possible Rally

Beyond the technical thresholds, another indicator deserves attention: the Altcoin Season Index. This tool fluctuates between two distinct phases:

According to Mags, a sector analyst, the index follows a cyclical dynamic that has been repeating for several years. “When it dips below 25, it stays there for a few weeks before rising above 75, marking the beginning of altseason,” he explains.

Past trends show that:

The coming weeks will be crucial for investors. A breakout of the 38.6 Fibonacci level and the 425 billion dollar threshold could trigger a new bull run for altcoins. At the same time, the dominance of bitcoin and the Altcoin Season Index will be closely monitored to determine the right moment to enter the market.

If these trends are confirmed, an altseason seems closer than ever. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and the inherent volatility of cryptos necessitate a measured and strategic approach.

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. J'essaye chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.