Bitcoin (BTC) Attempts $85,000 Recovery as Sellers Continue to Hold

After reaching an all-time high of $109,071 in January, Trump's inauguration ushered in a pullback phase witch Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) price attempted to recover above the $85,000 mark on Sunday, marking an 11% rebound from last week’s bottom of $76,000.

This recovery follows positive indicators from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which pointed towards a slowing rate of inflation.

However, sellers are still holding strong, and Bitcoin faces a crucial test at the $89,000 resistance, which could determine further gains or a potential decline towards the $76,000 support level.

Bitcoin attempts $85,000 recovery as sellers continue to hold

After hitting a high of $109,071 in January, Bitcoin has entered a pullback phase, with the cryptocurrency now attempting to rise above the $85,000 mark.

This attempt follows a sharp decline of nearly 30% from the recent lows of $76,000, which occurred last week amid various geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s intervention early this month and recent US trade tariff announcements.

However, positive indicators from the US CPI and PPI reports published last week have spurred a recovery.

Specifically, on March 13, Bitcoin price briefly crossed the $85,000 handle, reflecting a 11.1% gain from the previous week’s low of $76,000, which was reached on Tuesday.

This suggests that investor sentiment has improved significantly since the CPI data release, with many opting to hold their positions ahead of upcoming macroeconomic announcements.

What Fed rate outcomes could drive BTC to $100K?

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is a critical event for Bitcoin investors.

Historically, lower interest rates have led to increased liquidity in financial markets, often benefiting risk assets ranging from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is expected by Wednesday.

If the Fed signals a rate pause or hints at imminent cuts, it could boost investor confidence, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price toward the $100,000 mark.

Conversely, a hawkish stance with rate hikes could dampen liquidity, posing challenges for Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

However, based on recent data from CME Group, a majority of market watchers have priced in a 99% chance of a rate pause.

If this scenario plays out as anticipated, BTC price could see some upside in the aftermath of the official rate announcement, as often historically seen after less hawkish Fed decisions.

Bulls established $1.9 billion dominance in Bitcoin derivative market

Having digested inflation-easing signals in the US CPI and PPI reports, with market watchers nearly ruling out the chances of a rate cut as previously feared, the majority of Bitcoin traders have priced in the rate pause decision and positioned trades accordingly.

In the derivatives market, bullish sentiment is evident. Over the last 7 days, bull traders have mounted long leverage positions amounting to $4.9 billion, while short leverage positions stand at $3.8 billion, giving bulls a net dominance of $1.1 billion.

BTC outlook for the week ahead

This substantial long positioning indicates strong market confidence in Bitcoin’s future appreciation. However, it’s essential to monitor these leveraged positions closely, as sudden market shifts could lead to liquidations, amplifying price movements.

Given the 11% BTC price rebound over the past week, the anticipated Fed rate pause may have already been priced in, and many traders could capitalize on the announcement to execute a sell-the-news strategy.

In this scenario, BTC could see another downturn below the $80,000 mark, especially with long traders currently holding over-leveraged positions.

Bitcoin price forecast chart below is showing signs of more upside potential after rebounding 11% from the recent $76,000 low, to reach $83,175 at press time. The bullish case for BTC price action new week is supported by a number of technical indicators, but the path to $100,000 remains uncertain as key resistance levels and market sentiment present challenges.

First, the Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin has completed a corrective leg down, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $76,555. A bounce from this level indicates potential for a relief rally, with immediate targets at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $89,085, followed by $92,956 (0.5 retracement) and a stronger resistance near $96,827 at the 0.618 level.

Additionally, the Parabolic SAR indicator, currently at $97,068, further reinforces this zone as a pivotal area where bullish momentum could face major resistance.

However, bearish risks are still prominent.