比特币优势和42500万的市值阈值可能标志着山寨赛季节的开始

加密市场正在经历过渡阶段，其标志是比特币的巩固和山寨币的停滞。

The crypto market is currently experiencing a transitional phase, characterized by a consolidation of bitcoin and a stagnation of altcoins. However, several technical indicators suggest that a trend reversal could be on the horizon, which could have significant implications for the remaining year.

加密市场目前正在经历过渡阶段，其特征是比特币的巩固和替代币的停滞。但是，一些技术指标表明，趋势逆转可能会出现，这可能对剩余的一年产生重大影响。

Could the 425 billion dollar mark be the wall to fall ?

4250亿美元的商标可以倒塌吗？

For several months now, the altcoin market has been oscillating around a critical threshold: 425 billion dollars in capitalization. As analyst Rekt Capital points out in a post on March 11, 2025, on the social network X (formerly Twitter), this level has acted as a major resistance, preventing alternative assets from taking off. However, indicators show that this barrier may be on the verge of crumbling.

几个月来，Altcoin市场一直在关键的门槛左右：4250亿美元的资本化。正如分析师Rekt Capital在2025年3月11日在社交网络X（以前称为Twitter）上的一篇文章中指出的那样，该水平已成为主要抵抗力，阻止了替代资产起飞。但是，指标表明，这种障碍可能处于崩溃的边缘。

Other experts, such as CryptoGoos, support this thesis. He notes that bitcoin’s dominance, currently at 61 %, could soon reach a peak. However, in each previous cycle, a peak in this metric has often been followed by a trend reversal, leading to a surge in altcoins.

其他专家，例如Cryptogoos，支持这一论文。他指出，比特币的统治地位，目前为61％，很快可能达到顶峰。但是，在上一个周期中，该度量标准的峰值通常是趋势逆转，导致山寨币激增。

The Altcoin Season Index and the Timeline of a Possible Rally

Altcoin季节指数和可能的集会的时间表

Beyond the technical thresholds, another indicator deserves attention: the Altcoin Season Index. This tool fluctuates between two distinct phases:

除了技术阈值之外，另一个指标值得关注：Altcoin季节指数。该工具在两个不同的阶段之间波动：

According to Mags, a sector analyst, the index follows a cyclical dynamic that has been repeating for several years. “When it dips below 25, it stays there for a few weeks before rising above 75, marking the beginning of altseason,” he explains.

根据部门分析师Mags的说法，该指数遵循了几年重复的周期性动态。他解释说：“当它低于25岁以下时，它在75以上升到75岁之前就停留了几周，这标志着季后赛的开始。”

Past trends show that:

过去的趋势表明：

The coming weeks will be crucial for investors. A breakout of the 38.6 Fibonacci level and the 425 billion dollar threshold could trigger a new bull run for altcoins. At the same time, the dominance of bitcoin and the Altcoin Season Index will be closely monitored to determine the right moment to enter the market.

未来几周对投资者至关重要。 38.6斐波那契水平和4250亿美元的阈值的突破可能会引发山寨币的新公牛。同时，将密切监控比特币和替代币季节指数的主导地位，以确定进入市场的正确时机。

If these trends are confirmed, an altseason seems closer than ever. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and the inherent volatility of cryptos necessitate a measured and strategic approach.

如果确认了这些趋势，则季前赛似乎比以往任何时候都更加接近。然而，宏观经济的不确定性和加密的固有波动性需要一种测量和战略性的方法。

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

通过我们的“阅读赚取”计划最大化您的共同成员体验！对于您阅读的每篇文章，请赚取积分并获得独家奖励。立即注册并开始赚取福利。

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. J'essaye chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

我是Alyra发行的区块链顾问认证的科学毕业生，我于2019年加入了Cointribuna冒险。我坚信区块链有可能改变经济的许多部门，我承诺提高认识，并向公众提高人们对这个不断发展的生态系统的认识。我的目标是让每个人都能更好地了解区块链并抓住他们提供的机会。我每天都尝试对新闻进行客观分析，破译市场趋势，传达最新的技术创新，并将其视为正在进行的革命的经济和社会挑战。