Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Reaches Its Cycle High in March 2024 and Has Fallen Since

Bitcoin Cash reached its cycle high in March 2024 and has fallen since. The price created a lower high in December, accelerating the rate of decrease.

Bitcoin Cash price dropped to a new cycle low in March 2024, and it has been falling since.

The rate of decrease accelerated in December, when BCH price formed a lower high.

Even though the BCH price fell by nearly 50% since then, it still trades above its main horizontal support area at $340. This support is critical for future trends, as a breakdown below confirms that BCH is in a bear market.

With that in mind, let's analyze the price action and see if a breakdown or bounce is more likely.

BCH Price Breaks Down From Support Trend Line

The weekly time frame Bitcoin Cash chart shows that the price broke down from an ascending support trend line at the start of February. Before the breakdown, the trend line existed for 539 days.

While BCH broke down from this diagonal support, it prevented a breakdown from the $305 horizontal support area. BCH bounced but failed to reclaim the ascending support trend line, creating a long upper wick (red icon).

So, either BCH breaks down below $305 or reclaims the ascending support trend line can decide the future trend's direction.

Technical indicators support a breakdown. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative, signaling a bearish trend.

Hence, the weekly chart gives a bearish BCH price prediction. A decisive close below $305 can trigger a decline to the next support at $195.

Is BCH Poised For Bounce Or Breakdown?

BCH's daily time frame gives mixed signals. BCH broke out from a descending resistance trend line after the RSI and MACD generated bullish divergences (orange).

However, the Bitcoin Cash price failed to sustain its increase, getting rejected from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance at $414. This created an upward A-B-C structure (black), which could continue the bearish trend.

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While BCH still trades above the breakout level, it risks losing the minor support at $440, triggering a deeper decline. In the context of the long-term count, the increase could be wave X in a W-X-Y correction (red).

If the count is accurate, the BCH price has started wave Y. If it has 0.618 times the length of wave W, the BCH price will reach a low of $192, aligning with the long-term support at $195.

Alternatively, reclaiming the long-term ascending support trend line will mean the BCH trend is still bullish. Currently, this scenario is less likely.

Final Thoughts: Bitcoin Cash Price May Fall Further

The BCH price prevented a breakdown by bouncing at the $340 horizontal support area. However, the failure to reclaim its long-term support trend line and the fib resistance point to a bearish trend.

As a result, a decisive weekly close below $340 can trigger a significant downward movement that takes the BCH price to a new yearly low.