Bitcoin (BTC) Weakness Emerges as Whales Target Key Levels Ahead of Weekly Close

Market data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView highlights a critical moment for Bitcoin as its price hovers around $83,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of weakness on Thursday, sparking concerns that a significant price drop could be on the horizon. As BTC/USD slips over 3% to trade below $83,000, traders are closely watching key levels to determine the next move for Bitcoin.

Exchange order books highlight a critical moment for Bitcoin as its price hovers closely. At the time of writing, traders can easily locate bids piling up just below the cryptocurrency’s current price.

Chart showing BTC/USD 1-hour price action with exchange order books, liquidations and derivatives data. Credit: Glassnode, CoinTelegraph

As evident in the chart above, there is a lack of bid liquidity at the current price point, which could be crucial for Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support. A substantial portion of bids quickly diminishes after $82,000, placing pressure on buyers to defend this zone.

As the weekly close approaches, the cryptocurrency will need to navigate this factor. Moreover, with long liquidations accumulating at $84,300 and short positions stacking near $86,500–$87,000, traders are preparing for volatility.

Popular trader TheKingfisher cautions that whales may be targeting these levels to trigger stop-loss orders, potentially exacerbating market fluctuations.

According to data from CoinGlass, crypto liquidations have already surpassed $300 million in the past 24 hours, signaling heightened turbulence in the market.

Could Bitcoin drop to $75,000?

February’s final attempt to break below the $78,000 zone sparked concerns about whether Bitcoin has already found its local bottom or if further downside remains.

Some analysts believe that BTC is setting up to retest the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a critical support level it last interacted with in September. A breakdown of this SMA could have broader implications for the cryptocurrency.

If the 50-week SMA fails to hold, then Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA could come into play. This would mark the first time BTC has tested this key indicator since October 2023. A breakdown below these levels could potentially open the door for a drop to $75,000.

Chart showing BTC/USD weekly price trends and key SMA indicators. Credit: Glassnode

However, despite the bearish outlook, historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin may not fall below $69,000. The Lowest Price Forward tool, a mechanism that predicts the lowest price a cryptocurrency will reach based on past cycles, assigns a 95% probability that Bitcoin will not drop below this level.

This tool, which has a strong track record in past cycles, successfully predicted that Bitcoin would never again fall to $10,000 after September 2020.

If the current trend follows past patterns, then Bitcoin could be setting up for a correction but still maintain strong support near $69,000.