Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dips Below Its Critical 111-Day Moving Average, Setting Up a Potential Bargain Opportunity

This technical development comes as BTC faces short-term downward pressure.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital is keeping an eye on a technical development that could have implications for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

In a recent X post, the analyst observed that the apex cryptocurrency is currently trading below its critical 111-day moving average.

This technical development comes as BTC faces short-term downward pressure, having dropped below the key support level of $7,000 and continuing to move lower.

However, these technical setbacks might present a unique opportunity for investors, according to Rekt Capital.

Highlighting that these downside deviations from the 111-day moving average have historically presented “fantastic opportunities in terms of bargain moments,” the analyst anticipates that these deviations could offer interesting entry points for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin.

Chart: Rekt CapitalExamining the historical patterns of Bitcoin's price action around the 111-day moving average (orange line) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by two (green line) used in the Pi Cycle Top indicator, Rekt Capital explained that Bitcoin's price behavior follows consistent patterns throughout market cycles.

“In bull cycles, price action tends to deviate below the orange moving average,” the analyst stated while examining multiple market cycles dating back to 2012-2013.

He added that these deviations used to be brief and momentary during strong bull trends.

Pointing out that the 2017 bull run featured quite small and really momentary deviations, and 2021 saw only one major deviation, which presented a bargain opportunity before prices rallied again, Rekt Capital stated that the current cycle has seen quite a few of these deviations, rendering these events a little bit more common.

Despite this change in frequency, Rekt Capital noted that these moments function as buying opportunities.

The orange 111-day moving average, which currently sits at around $96,500, acts as resistance during bear markets until the market is ready to reverse into a new bull cycle, which is why Rekt Capital identifies it as the key resistance that needs to be reclaimed to validate a new uptrend going forward.

Meanwhile, the recent downward price action has created an interesting effect on the predicted timing of the Pi Cycle Top crossover, which is now being pushed to February 2032 with the substantial move to the downside.

“When we have tremendous downside momentum and tremendous stretching of the price action towards the downside—which is what we're seeing here—it does suggest that this current downward move is an extreme move that's not sustainable, at least in terms of time and price to the downside,” explained the analyst.

The timing of the Pi Cycle crossover varies with recent price action. Before the recent price decline, the indicator was projecting a market top around July 2025. Strong upward rallies tend to bring the projected crossover date closer, while sharp downtrends push it further into the future.

As for what's next, the current price action is forming what Rekt Capital calls a “downside deviation range” that will likely persist for some time before Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the 111-day moving average and the orange 350-day moving average.

The analyst will be keenly watching for the development of specific technical structures that could signal the next directional move.

“It'll be very interesting to see what sort of structure we're able to develop here,” noted the analyst while examining the charts and pointing out a similar situation earlier in the cycle where Bitcoin formed a double bottom pattern during a deviation.

Looking at the current setup, the analyst is monitoring for potential formations such as a “lower low,” an “inverse head and shoulders,” or another “double bottom” pattern.

According to the analyst, these conditions of overselling tend to precede a move to the upside “before too many buyers come into the market and then it’s overbought.”