随着价格重新测试关键支撑位，XRP (XRP) 鲸鱼获利了结

由于预期加密货币的监管环境有利，XRP 价格自触及三年高点 1.26 美元以来已大幅回落。

XRP price soared past the $1 mark on Nov. 16, hitting a three-year high of $1.26 amid anticipation of a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies and the potential resolution of Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

11 月 16 日，XRP 价格飙升至 1 美元大关，触及 1.26 美元的三年高位，原因是人们预期加密货币的监管环境有利，并且 Ripple 与美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的长期法律纠纷可能得到解决。

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However, XRP price has pulled back significantly since then, leading to questions about whether $1.26 was the top, at least for now.

然而，自那以后，XRP 价格大幅回落，引发人们质疑 1.26 美元是否是最高点，至少目前是这样。

A closer look at on-chain data and market derivatives could provide some insights into this recent price action and traders’ positioning in the XRP market.

仔细研究链上数据和市场衍生品可以为最近的价格走势和交易者在 XRP 市场的定位提供一些见解。

XRP whales take profits, retail sells into rallies

XRP 鲸鱼获利了结，散户逢高抛售

XRP’s pullback on Nov. 17 coincided with substantial inflows, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, into Bitstamp and other exchanges, according to data from Whale Alert.

根据 Whale Alert 的数据，XRP 在 11 月 17 日回调时，大量资金流入 Bitstamp 和其他交易所，金额达数千万美元。

For instance, a whale transferred 10 million XRP tokens, worth $11.3 million at the time, to the Bitstamp crypto exchange. This transfer could be part of the investor's intention to cash in on their gains following XRP's big rally.

例如，鲸鱼将 1000 万个 XRP 代币（当时价值 1130 万美元）转移到 Bitstamp 加密货币交易所。此次转移可能是投资者在 XRP 大幅上涨后兑现收益的意图的一部分。

The timing of these substantial XRP transfers to exchanges is noteworthy, as it aligns with a critical shift in the distribution of XRP holdings.

这些大量 XRP 转移到交易所的时机值得注意，因为它与 XRP 持有量分布的关键转变相一致。

Specifically, there is a substantial increase in the XRP supply on exchanges, as evidenced by data from CryptoQuant. The chart below shows that the exchanges’ XRP balance increased by 3% between Nov. 6 and Nov. 16.

具体来说，CryptoQuant 的数据证明，交易所的 XRP 供应量大幅增加。下图显示，11 月 6 日至 16 日期间，交易所的 XRP 余额增加了 3%。

Note that XRP reserves on exchanges increased by 44 million XRP between Nov. 13 and Nov. 16. This accompanies a 56% price growth over the same timeframe.

请注意，11 月 13 日至 16 日期间，交易所的 XRP 储备增加了 4400 万个 XRP。这伴随着同期价格增长 56%。

XRP reserve on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

交易所储备 XRP。来源：CryptoQuant

This suggests possible whale profit-booking to drive the 13% pullback since the Nov. 16 highs.

这表明鲸鱼可能会获利了结，从而推动自 11 月 16 日高点以来 13% 的回调。

Additionally, Santiment explains that retail traders have also been selling into “any small XRP rally,” and the scenario following the rally to $1.26 was no different.

此外，Santiment 解释说，散户交易员也一直在“任何小幅 XRP 反弹”中抛售，而反弹至 1.26 美元后的情况也没有什么不同。

“Wallets with under 1M XRP have collectively dumped 75.7M tokens (worth $87.9M) this past week,” the onchain data provider said in a Nov. 17 post on X.

该链上数据提供商在 11 月 17 日的 X 帖子中表示：“过去一周，XRP 数量低于 100 万的钱包总共抛售了 7570 万枚代币（价值 8790 万美元）。”

Interestingly, the tokens dumped by retail traders were scooped up by whale and shark wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million tokens, a potentially bullish signal going forward.

有趣的是，零售交易员抛售的代币被持有 100 万至 1 亿代币的鲸鱼和鲨鱼钱包收购，这是未来潜在的看涨信号。

Santiment notes that:

桑蒂门特指出：

XRP whale wallet holdings. Source: Santiment

XRP 鲸鱼钱包持有量。资料来源：Santiment

The volatility, meanwhile, caught long traders off-guard when XRP sharply turned away from its multi-year high of $1.26.

与此同时，当 XRP 大幅偏离其多年高点 1.26 美元时，波动性让多头交易者措手不及。

Data from CoinGlass shows that the XRP derivatives market witnessed over $12.6 million worth of liquidations on Nov. 17, out of which $9.1 million were long, with the tally continuing at the time of publication.

CoinGlass 的数据显示，11 月 17 日，XRP 衍生品市场的清算金额超过 1260 万美元，其中 910 万美元为多头，截至发布时这一数字仍在持续。

More than $3.9 million in leveraged long positions have been liquidated over the last four hours alone.

仅在过去四个小时内，就有超过 390 万美元的杠杆多头头寸被清算。

XRP liquidations. Source: CoinGlass

XRP 清算。来源：CoinGlass

When long positions are liquidated, it generally involves selling off the asset (voluntarily or by the broker), pulling prices down further.

当多头头寸被清算时，通常涉及出售资产（自愿或由经纪人），从而进一步拉低价格。

XRP price ‘overbought’ on multiple timeframes

XRP 价格在多个时间范围内“超买”

A heatmap of XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently shows overbought conditions in four out of six timeframes, according to data from CoinGlass.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，XRP 相对强度指数 (RSI) 的热图目前显示六分之四的时间范围内存在超买状况。

By comparison, Bitcoin’s RSI is overbought on three of six timeframes.

相比之下，比特币的 RSI 在六个时间框架中有三个处于超买状态。

Crypto market RSI heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

加密货币市场 RSI 热图。来源：CoinGlass

Overbought conditions generally describe recent movements in the price of an asset and reflect an expectation that the price trend may correct soon.

超买状况通常描述了资产价格的近期走势，并反映了对价格趋势可能很快纠正的预期。

But despite this popular metric showing potential overheating, traders believe that the XRP price rally is not over.

但尽管这一流行指标显示出潜在的过热风险，但交易员认为 XRP 价格上涨尚未结束。

“It’s so early in the cycle for such an XRP pump,” said independent trader Chris McCrypto in a Nov. 16 post on X, adding that XRP price could go as high as $15–$20.

独立交易员 Chris McCrypto 在 11 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“对于 XRP 上涨周期来说，现在还处于早期阶段。”他补充说，XRP 价格可能高达 15 至 20 美元。

Meanwhile, pseudonymous analyst CryptoCharged opined that the ongoing pullback has seen the price retest key levels “to perfection” and a drop to the $0.65 and $0.75 zone would reset the chart for another move higher.

与此同时，匿名分析师 CryptoCharged 认为，持续的回调已经使价格重新测试关键水平“完美”，跌至 0.65 美元和 0.75 美元区域将重置图表，以再次走高。

Source: CryptoCharged

来源：CryptoCharged

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都存在风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。