隨著價格重新測試關鍵支撐位，XRP (XRP) 鯨魚獲利了結

由於預期加密貨幣的監管環境有利，XRP 價格自觸及三年高點 1.26 美元以來已大幅回落。

XRP price soared past the $1 mark on Nov. 16, hitting a three-year high of $1.26 amid anticipation of a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies and the potential resolution of Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

11 月 16 日，XRP 價格飆升至 1 美元大關，觸及 1.26 美元的三年高位，原因是人們預期加​​密貨幣的監管環境有利，並且 Ripple 與美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的長期法律糾紛可能得到解決。

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However, XRP price has pulled back significantly since then, leading to questions about whether $1.26 was the top, at least for now.

然而，自那以後，XRP 價格大幅回落，引發人們質疑 1.26 美元是否是最高點，至少目前是如此。

A closer look at on-chain data and market derivatives could provide some insights into this recent price action and traders’ positioning in the XRP market.

仔細研究鏈上數據和市場衍生品可以為最近的價格走勢和交易者在 XRP 市場的定位提供一些見解。

XRP whales take profits, retail sells into rallies

XRP 鯨魚獲利了結，散戶逢高拋售

XRP’s pullback on Nov. 17 coincided with substantial inflows, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, into Bitstamp and other exchanges, according to data from Whale Alert.

根據 Whale Alert 的數據，XRP 在 11 月 17 日回檔時，大量資金流入 Bitstamp 和其他交易所，金額達數千萬美元。

For instance, a whale transferred 10 million XRP tokens, worth $11.3 million at the time, to the Bitstamp crypto exchange. This transfer could be part of the investor's intention to cash in on their gains following XRP's big rally.

例如，鯨魚將 1000 萬個 XRP 代幣（當時價值 1130 萬美元）轉移到 Bitstamp 加密貨幣交易所。此次轉移可能是投資者在 XRP 大幅上漲後兌現收益的意圖的一部分。

The timing of these substantial XRP transfers to exchanges is noteworthy, as it aligns with a critical shift in the distribution of XRP holdings.

這些大量 XRP 轉移到交易所的時機值得注意，因為它與 XRP 持有量分佈的關鍵轉變一致。

Specifically, there is a substantial increase in the XRP supply on exchanges, as evidenced by data from CryptoQuant. The chart below shows that the exchanges’ XRP balance increased by 3% between Nov. 6 and Nov. 16.

具體來說，CryptoQuant 的數據證明，交易所的 XRP 供應量大幅增加。下圖顯示，11 月 6 日至 16 日期間，交易所的 XRP 餘額增加了 3%。

Note that XRP reserves on exchanges increased by 44 million XRP between Nov. 13 and Nov. 16. This accompanies a 56% price growth over the same timeframe.

請注意，11 月 13 日至 16 日期間，交易所的 XRP 儲備增加了 4,400 萬個 XRP。

XRP reserve on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

交易所儲備 XRP。來源：CryptoQuant

This suggests possible whale profit-booking to drive the 13% pullback since the Nov. 16 highs.

這表明鯨魚可能會獲利了結，從而推動自 11 月 16 日高點以來 13% 的回調。

Additionally, Santiment explains that retail traders have also been selling into “any small XRP rally,” and the scenario following the rally to $1.26 was no different.

此外，Santiment 解釋說，散戶交易員也一直在「任何小幅 XRP 反彈」中拋售，而反彈至 1.26 美元後的情況也沒有什麼不同。

“Wallets with under 1M XRP have collectively dumped 75.7M tokens (worth $87.9M) this past week,” the onchain data provider said in a Nov. 17 post on X.

該鏈上數據提供商在 11 月 17 日的 X 帖子中表示：“過去一周，XRP 數量低於 100 萬的錢包總共拋售了 7570 萬枚代幣（價值 8790 萬美元）。”

Interestingly, the tokens dumped by retail traders were scooped up by whale and shark wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million tokens, a potentially bullish signal going forward.

有趣的是，零售交易員拋售的代幣被持有 100 萬至 1 億代幣的鯨魚和鯊魚錢包收購，這是未來潛在的看漲訊號。

Santiment notes that:

桑蒂門特指出：

XRP whale wallet holdings. Source: Santiment

XRP 鯨魚錢包持有量。資料來源：Santiment

The volatility, meanwhile, caught long traders off-guard when XRP sharply turned away from its multi-year high of $1.26.

同時，當 XRP 大幅偏離其多年高點 1.26 美元時，波動性讓多頭交易者措手不及。

Data from CoinGlass shows that the XRP derivatives market witnessed over $12.6 million worth of liquidations on Nov. 17, out of which $9.1 million were long, with the tally continuing at the time of publication.

CoinGlass 的數據顯示，11 月 17 日，XRP 衍生性商品市場的清算金額超過 1,260 萬美元，其中 910 萬美元為多頭，截至發佈時這一數字仍在持續。

More than $3.9 million in leveraged long positions have been liquidated over the last four hours alone.

僅在過去四個小時內，就有超過 390 萬美元的槓桿多頭部位被清算。

XRP liquidations. Source: CoinGlass

XRP 清算。來源：CoinGlass

When long positions are liquidated, it generally involves selling off the asset (voluntarily or by the broker), pulling prices down further.

當多頭部位被清算時，通常涉及出售資產（自願或由經紀人），從而進一步拉低價格。

XRP price ‘overbought’ on multiple timeframes

XRP 價格在多個時間範圍內“超買”

A heatmap of XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently shows overbought conditions in four out of six timeframes, according to data from CoinGlass.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，XRP 相對強度指數 (RSI) 的熱圖目前顯示六分之四的時間範圍內存在超買狀況。

By comparison, Bitcoin’s RSI is overbought on three of six timeframes.

相比之下，比特幣的 RSI 在六個時間框架中有三個處於超買狀態。

Crypto market RSI heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

加密貨幣市場 RSI 熱圖。來源：CoinGlass

Overbought conditions generally describe recent movements in the price of an asset and reflect an expectation that the price trend may correct soon.

超買狀況通常描述了資產價格的近期趨勢，並反映了對價格趨勢可能很快就會糾正的預期。

But despite this popular metric showing potential overheating, traders believe that the XRP price rally is not over.

但儘管這項流行指標顯示出潛在的過熱風險，但交易員認為 XRP 價格上漲尚未結束。

“It’s so early in the cycle for such an XRP pump,” said independent trader Chris McCrypto in a Nov. 16 post on X, adding that XRP price could go as high as $15–$20.

獨立交易員 Chris McCrypto 在 11 月 16 日的 X 貼文中表示：「對於 XRP 上漲週期來說，現在還處於早期階段。」他補充說，XRP 價格可能高達 15 至 20 美元。

Meanwhile, pseudonymous analyst CryptoCharged opined that the ongoing pullback has seen the price retest key levels “to perfection” and a drop to the $0.65 and $0.75 zone would reset the chart for another move higher.

與此同時，匿名分析師 CryptoCharged 認為，持續的回調已經使價格重新測試關鍵水平“完美”，跌至 0.65 美元和 0.75 美元區域將重置圖表，以再次走高。

Source: CryptoCharged

來源：CryptoCharged

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都存在風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。