XRP鲸鱼可能会转向看涨，因为期货高级收回10％

自1月15日达到顶峰以来，XRP期货的总开放利息反映了对这些合同的总体需求，已下跌了37％。

XRP futures open interest has fallen by 37% since peaking on Jan. 15, indicating a decline in demand for these contracts. However, it's crucial to note that in derivatives markets, long (buy) and short (sell) positions are always matched, rendering the total number of contracts less indicative of purely bearish sentiment.

自1月15日达到顶峰以来，XRP期货开放利息下降了37％，表明对这些合同的需求下降。但是，至关重要的是要注意，在衍生品市场中，长（买）和短期（卖出）职位始终是匹配的，从而使合同总数较少表示纯粹是看跌态度的。

Generally, a growing interest from institutional investors is considered positive, as it tends to increase liquidity and attract more trading capital.

通常，机构投资者的兴趣日益增长被认为是积极的，因为它倾向于增加流动性并吸引更多的贸易资本。

To assess whether XRP whales have turned bearish, we can analyze the premium on monthly futures contracts. In neutral markets, these contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for the longer settlement period.

为了评估XRP鲸是否变成看跌，我们可以分析每月期货合约的保费。在中立市场中，这些合同通常以5％至10％的年度保费进行交易，以弥补更长的结算期。

Two key points stand out when analyzing the XRP futures data. First, the premium quickly reclaimed the 5% neutral threshold after the flash crash to $1.76 on Feb. 3. More importantly, the annualized futures premium has returned to the bullish 10% level, even though XRP is trading 25.5% below its all-time high of $3.40.

分析XRP期货数据时，两个要点脱颖而出。首先，溢价在2月3日的闪光灯崩溃后迅速恢复了5％的中性门槛。更重要的是，即使XRP低于其历史上的25.5％，年度期货期货保费已恢复到看涨的10％水平。高价3.40美元。

Still, XRP is heavily influenced by retail trading. The aggregate open interest in perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) on platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and Bitget is approaching $2.5 billion. To understand whether the so-called ‘XRP army’ is weakening, we can examine the futures funding rate, which typically exceeds 1.9% per month in bullish markets.

尽管如此，XRP仍受零售交易的严重影响。诸如Binance，Bybit和Bitget等平台上永久合同（逆交换）的总体兴趣接近25亿美元。为了了解所谓的“ XRP军队”是否正在削弱，我们可以检查期货融资率，在看涨市场中通常每月超过每月1.9％。

Currently, the XRP perpetual contracts funding rate stands at 0.2% per month, at the lower end of the neutral range and nearing bearish territory. While this is an improvement from the level observed on Feb. 3, it remains significantly lower than the 0.9% recorded two weeks ago. From a derivatives perspective, this suggests a lack of optimism among retail traders.

目前，XRP永久合同的筹资率为每月0.2％，在中立范围的下端和接近看跌领土。虽然这比2月3日观察到的水平有所改善，但它仍然显着低于两周前记录的0.9％。从衍生品的角度来看，这表明零售商人缺乏乐观情绪。

XRP adoption and financial inclusion claims lack evidence

XRP采用和金融包容性要求缺乏证据

XRP price movements are often closely tied to news and events, even rumors without solid evidence. For example, some influencers have claimed that Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, is close to being appointed to the Trump administration's cryptocurrency council, despite the lack of credible sources to support this claim.

XRP的价格变动通常与新闻和事件紧密相关，甚至没有证据的谣言。例如，一些影响者声称，尽管缺乏支持这一主张的可靠资源，但Ripple的首席执行官Brad Garlinghouse即将被任命为特朗普政府的加密货币委员会。

Other influencers have suggested that traditional banks may "become nodes in the Ripple network to access XRP." This claim is highly questionable, as Ripple has already shifted its focus to integrating tokenized assets into its network.

其他有影响力的人建议传统银行“成为访问XRP的连锁网络中的节点”。这一说法是值得怀疑的，因为Ripple已经将其重点转移到将令牌化资产集成到其网络中。

Whether there is a coordinated effort to create the illusion of XRP adoption within traditional finance or its inclusion in government strategic reserves, there is no concrete evidence to support these ideas. XRP remains a highly speculative asset, with less than $100 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama data.

无论是在传统金融中创造XRP采用的幻想还是在政府战略储备中构成XRP采用的幻想，都没有具体的证据来支持这些思想。根据Defillama的数据，XRP仍然是高度投机性的资产，总价值锁定（TVL）不到1亿美元。

Although XRP may retest the $3 level, no fundamental changes have occurred, except for the emergence of a more crypto-friendly government. This development increases the chances of success in Ripple’s ongoing court cases but does not directly impact the price of XRP.

尽管XRP可能会重新测试3美元的水平，但除了出现更友好的政府外，没有发生任何根本变化。这一发展增加了Ripple持续法院案件成功的机会，但不会直接影响XRP的价格。

The primary legal case directly involving Ripple is the US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit, which revolves around whether certain XRP sales constitute unregistered securities offerings. This case is currently in the appeals stage. However, the outcome of the court ruling is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of XRP adoption or the public ledger network used by the banking sector.

直接涉及Ripple的主要法律案件是美国证券交易委员会诉讼，该诉讼围绕某些XRP销售是否构成未注册的证券提供。此案目前处于上诉阶段。但是，法院裁决的结果不太可能显着改变XRP采用的轨迹或银行业使用的公共分类帐网络。