XRP鯨魚可能會轉向看漲，因為期貨高級收回10％

自1月15日達到頂峰以來，XRP期貨的總開放利息反映了對這些合同的總體需求，已下跌了37％。

XRP futures open interest has fallen by 37% since peaking on Jan. 15, indicating a decline in demand for these contracts. However, it's crucial to note that in derivatives markets, long (buy) and short (sell) positions are always matched, rendering the total number of contracts less indicative of purely bearish sentiment.

自1月15日達到頂峰以來，XRP期貨開放利息下降了37％，表明對這些合同的需求下降。但是，至關重要的是要注意，在衍生品市場中，長（買）和短期（賣出）職位始終是匹配的，從而使合同總數較少表示純粹是看跌態度的。

Generally, a growing interest from institutional investors is considered positive, as it tends to increase liquidity and attract more trading capital.

通常，機構投資者的興趣日益增長被認為是積極的，因為它傾向於增加流動性並吸引更多的貿易資本。

To assess whether XRP whales have turned bearish, we can analyze the premium on monthly futures contracts. In neutral markets, these contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for the longer settlement period.

為了評估XRP鯨是否變成看跌，我們可以分析每月期貨合約的保費。在中立市場中，這些合同通常以5％至10％的年度保費進行交易，以彌補更長的結算期。

Two key points stand out when analyzing the XRP futures data. First, the premium quickly reclaimed the 5% neutral threshold after the flash crash to $1.76 on Feb. 3. More importantly, the annualized futures premium has returned to the bullish 10% level, even though XRP is trading 25.5% below its all-time high of $3.40.

分析XRP期貨數據時，兩個要點脫穎而出。首先，溢價在2月3日的閃光燈崩潰後迅速恢復了5％的中性門檻。更重要的是，即使XRP低於其歷史上的25.5％，年度期貨期貨保費已恢復到看漲的10％水平。高價3.40美元。

Still, XRP is heavily influenced by retail trading. The aggregate open interest in perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) on platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and Bitget is approaching $2.5 billion. To understand whether the so-called ‘XRP army’ is weakening, we can examine the futures funding rate, which typically exceeds 1.9% per month in bullish markets.

儘管如此，XRP仍受零售交易的嚴重影響。諸如Binance，Bybit和Bitget等平台上永久合同（逆交換）的總體興趣接近25億美元。為了了解所謂的“ XRP軍隊”是否正在削弱，我們可以檢查期貨融資率，在看漲市場中通常每月超過每月1.9％。

Currently, the XRP perpetual contracts funding rate stands at 0.2% per month, at the lower end of the neutral range and nearing bearish territory. While this is an improvement from the level observed on Feb. 3, it remains significantly lower than the 0.9% recorded two weeks ago. From a derivatives perspective, this suggests a lack of optimism among retail traders.

目前，XRP永久合同的籌資率為每月0.2％，在中立範圍的下端和接近看跌領土。雖然這比2月3日觀察到的水平有所改善，但它仍然顯著低於兩週前記錄的0.9％。從衍生品的角度來看，這表明零售商人缺乏樂觀情緒。

XRP adoption and financial inclusion claims lack evidence

XRP採用和金融包容性要求缺乏證據

XRP price movements are often closely tied to news and events, even rumors without solid evidence. For example, some influencers have claimed that Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, is close to being appointed to the Trump administration's cryptocurrency council, despite the lack of credible sources to support this claim.

XRP的價格變動通常與新聞和事件緊密相關，甚至沒有證據的謠言。例如，一些影響者聲稱，儘管缺乏支持這一主張的可靠資源，但Ripple的首席執行官Brad Garlinghouse即將被任命為特朗普政府的加密貨幣委員會。

Other influencers have suggested that traditional banks may "become nodes in the Ripple network to access XRP." This claim is highly questionable, as Ripple has already shifted its focus to integrating tokenized assets into its network.

其他有影響力的人建議傳統銀行“成為訪問XRP的連鎖網絡中的節點”。這一說法是值得懷疑的，因為Ripple已經將其重點轉移到將令牌化資產集成到其網絡中。

Whether there is a coordinated effort to create the illusion of XRP adoption within traditional finance or its inclusion in government strategic reserves, there is no concrete evidence to support these ideas. XRP remains a highly speculative asset, with less than $100 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama data.

無論是在傳統金融中創造XRP採用的幻想還是在政府戰略儲備中構成XRP採用的幻想，都沒有具體的證據來支持這些思想。根據Defillama的數據，XRP仍然是高度投機性的資產，總價值鎖定（TVL）不到1億美元。

Although XRP may retest the $3 level, no fundamental changes have occurred, except for the emergence of a more crypto-friendly government. This development increases the chances of success in Ripple’s ongoing court cases but does not directly impact the price of XRP.

儘管XRP可能會重新測試3美元的水平，但除了出現更友好的政府外，沒有發生任何根本變化。這一發展增加了Ripple持續法院案件成功的機會，但不會直接影響XRP的價格。

The primary legal case directly involving Ripple is the US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit, which revolves around whether certain XRP sales constitute unregistered securities offerings. This case is currently in the appeals stage. However, the outcome of the court ruling is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of XRP adoption or the public ledger network used by the banking sector.

直接涉及Ripple的主要法律案件是美國證券交易委員會訴訟，該訴訟圍繞某些XRP銷售是否構成未註冊的證券提供。此案目前處於上訴階段。但是，法院裁決的結果不太可能顯著改變XRP採用的軌跡或銀行業使用的公共分類帳網絡。