为什么XRP飙升？

3月19日，Ripple收到了证券交易委员会（SEC）的一些好消息。随后，XRP的价格上涨了约12％，尽管此后已经投降了其中一些收益。

Despite its popularity, cryptocurrency is one of the most volatile asset classes to invest in. From crypto winters to hype narratives fueling meme coins, the crypto landscape never has a dull moment.

尽管它很受欢迎，但加密货币还是要投资最动荡的资产类别之一。从加密冬季到炒作叙事，加油模因硬币，加密货币景观从来没有一个沉闷的时刻。

Beyond mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, another popular investment that's emerged in recent years is XRP(CRYPTO: XRP), which is developed by Ripple Labs.

除了比特币或以太坊等主流加密货币之外，近年来出现的另一项流行投资是XRP（Crypto：XRP），它是由Ri​​pple Labs开发的。

On March 19, Ripple received some great news from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Subsequently, the price of XRP rose about 12%, although it has since surrendered some of those gains.

3月19日，Ripple收到了证券交易委员会（SEC）的一些好消息。随后，XRP的价格上涨了约12％，尽管此后已经投降了其中一些收益。

Let's explore why XRP investors are cheering and assess if this important decision by the SEC could pave the way for the cryptocurrency's future.

让我们探讨为什么XRP投资者欢呼雀跃，并评估SEC的这一重要决定是否可以为加密货币的未来铺平道路。

Why is XRP soaring?

为什么XRP飙升？

For the past several years, Ripple has been involved in a closely followed lawsuit with the SEC. To summarize, the SEC alleged that Ripple was selling the XRP token as an unregistered security.

在过去的几年中，Ripple参与了SEC的紧随其后诉讼。总而言之，SEC声称Ripple将XRP代币作为未注册的安全性出售。

The word "security" is important here. Although investing in cryptocurrency has become more common in recent years, the regulatory landscape around this asset class has been cloudy at best.

“安全性”一词在这里很重要。尽管近年来对加密货币的投资变得越来越普遍，但围绕该资产类别的监管格局充其量是多云。

In essence, Ripple defended its actions by arguing that XRP is a commodity -- not a security such as a stock or bond. In such a case, XRP would not be held to the same rules and regulations as traditional securities.

从本质上讲，Ripple认为XRP是一种商品，而不是诸如股票或债券之类的担保来捍卫其行动。在这种情况下，XRP不会与传统证券相同的规则和法规。

The back and forth between Ripple and the SEC has been going on since Dec. 22, 2020. As the chart below shows, the price of XRP during the past four years has exhibited some extreme peaks and valleys.

自2020年12月22日以来，Ripple和SEC之间的后退一直在进行。如下图所示，过去四年中XRP的价格显示出一些极端的山峰和山谷。

Nevertheless, on March 19 Ripple's chief executive officer said that the SEC is withdrawing its case against the company. While some investors are expecting an announcement from the SEC later in April, the current price action isn't too surprising.

然而，3月19日，Ripple的首席执行官表示，SEC正在对公司提起诉讼。尽管一些投资者期望4月下旬发布SEC的公告，但目前的价格行动并不令人惊讶。

The reason I say that is because I don't find the SEC's reported decision as much of a surprise. The Trump administration has vocally supported the crypto industry -- from the campaign trail and now even in the White House. Earlier this month, the president hosted a crypto summit at the White House and even doubled down on his intention to form a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to augment the nation's balance sheet.

我之所以这样说是因为我没有发现SEC报告的决定令人惊讶。特朗普政府从竞选活动中甚至在白宫中声音支持加密货币行业。本月早些时候，总统在白宫举行了加密峰会，甚至将他打算组成战略性比特币储备金的意图增加一倍，以增强美国资产负债表。

Although none of these factors specifically involves XRP, I found the appearance of support for the crypto industry from the current administration as enough of a proxy to assume a positive outcome in the Ripple suit.

尽管这些因素都没有特别涉及XRP，但我发现当前政府对加密工业的支持似乎足以在波纹诉讼中取得积极的结果。

Is XRP a good buy right now?

XRP现在是好买吗？

As of this writing, the price of XRP is roughly $2.39. While that might look cheap compared to Bitcoin's price of $84,400, looking at absolute dollars can be misleading.

截至撰写本文时，XRP的价格约为2.39美元。虽然与比特币的价格为84,400美元相比，这看起来可能便宜，但看绝对美元可能会产生误导。

Despite the appearance of a low dollar amount, XRP boasts a market cap of $139 billion. That makes XRP more valuable than Shopify, Boeing, Intel, and CrowdStrike.

尽管出现了较低的美元金额，但XRP的市值为1,390亿美元。这使XRP比Shopify，波音，英特尔和CrowdStrike更有价值。

To get a better sense of XRP's valuation relative to other payments networks, let's look at PayPal. According to Statista, PayPal holds an estimated 45% market share among online payments processors -- the largest in the world.

为了更好地了解XRP相对于其他付款网络的估值，让我们看一下PayPal。根据Statista的数据，PayPal估计在在线支付处理器中占45％的市场份额，这是世界上最大的。

But what if I told you that XRP's market cap is nearly double that of PayPal?

但是，如果我告诉您XRP的市值几乎是PayPal的两倍，该怎么办？

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind with XRP is that its penetration of the global payments market is still quite low. While it's caught on in some regions such as Japan, XRP hasn't reached adoption rates anywhere near legacy processors -- and a win in the SEC case doesn't necessarily guarantee any near-term expansion opportunities.

XRP要记住的最重要的事情可能是，其对全球支付市场的渗透仍然很低。虽然它在日本等某些地区被吸引了，但XRP尚未达到传统处理器附近的任何地方的采用率 - 在SEC案件中，胜利并不一定能保证任何近期扩张的机会。

I see an investment in XRP as somewhere between real utility coins like Bitcoin and meme coins such as Dogecoin. What I mean by that is that XRP has a proven use case (i.e., utility), but its price action largely follows narratives (just like a meme investment).

我认为对XRP的投资是像比特币这样的实用硬币和狗狗等模因硬币之间的某个地方。我的意思是XRP具有可靠的用例（即公用事业），但其价格行动在很大程度上遵循叙事（就像模因投资一样）。

Although I think that XRP's prospects are looking brighter, I question if the current valuation is justified. Despite some good news out of the SEC, I don't see XRP as a compelling buy at its current price point.

尽管我认为XRP的前景看起来更明亮，但我质疑当前的估值是否合理。尽管SEC中有一些好消息，但我并没有将XRP视为当前价格的引人注目的购买。