為什麼XRP飆升？

3月19日，Ripple收到了證券交易委員會（SEC）的一些好消息。隨後，XRP的價格上漲了約12％，儘管此後已經投降了其中一些收益。

Despite its popularity, cryptocurrency is one of the most volatile asset classes to invest in. From crypto winters to hype narratives fueling meme coins, the crypto landscape never has a dull moment.

儘管它很受歡迎，但加密貨幣還是要投資最動蕩的資產類別之一。從加密冬季到炒作敘事，加油模因硬幣，加密貨幣景觀從來沒有一個沉悶的時刻。

Beyond mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, another popular investment that's emerged in recent years is XRP(CRYPTO: XRP), which is developed by Ripple Labs.

除了比特幣或以太坊等主流加密貨幣之外，近年來出現的另一項流行投資是XRP（Crypto：XRP），它是由Ri​​pple Labs開發的。

On March 19, Ripple received some great news from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Subsequently, the price of XRP rose about 12%, although it has since surrendered some of those gains.

3月19日，Ripple收到了證券交易委員會（SEC）的一些好消息。隨後，XRP的價格上漲了約12％，儘管此後已經投降了其中一些收益。

Let's explore why XRP investors are cheering and assess if this important decision by the SEC could pave the way for the cryptocurrency's future.

讓我們探討為什麼XRP投資者歡呼雀躍，並評估SEC的這一重要決定是否可以為加密貨幣的未來鋪平道路。

Why is XRP soaring?

為什麼XRP飆升？

For the past several years, Ripple has been involved in a closely followed lawsuit with the SEC. To summarize, the SEC alleged that Ripple was selling the XRP token as an unregistered security.

在過去的幾年中，Ripple參與了SEC的緊隨其後訴訟。總而言之，SEC聲稱Ripple將XRP代幣作為未註冊的安全性出售。

The word "security" is important here. Although investing in cryptocurrency has become more common in recent years, the regulatory landscape around this asset class has been cloudy at best.

“安全性”一詞在這裡很重要。儘管近年來對加密貨幣的投資變得越來越普遍，但圍繞該資產類別的監管格局充其量是多雲。

In essence, Ripple defended its actions by arguing that XRP is a commodity -- not a security such as a stock or bond. In such a case, XRP would not be held to the same rules and regulations as traditional securities.

從本質上講，Ripple認為XRP是一種商品，而不是諸如股票或債券之類的擔保來捍衛其行動。在這種情況下，XRP不會與傳統證券相同的規則和法規。

The back and forth between Ripple and the SEC has been going on since Dec. 22, 2020. As the chart below shows, the price of XRP during the past four years has exhibited some extreme peaks and valleys.

自2020年12月22日以來，Ripple和SEC之間的後退一直在進行。如下圖所示，過去四年中XRP的價格顯示出一些極端的山峰和山谷。

Nevertheless, on March 19 Ripple's chief executive officer said that the SEC is withdrawing its case against the company. While some investors are expecting an announcement from the SEC later in April, the current price action isn't too surprising.

然而，3月19日，Ripple的首席執行官表示，SEC正在對公司提起訴訟。儘管一些投資者期望4月下旬發布SEC的公告，但目前的價格行動並不令人驚訝。

The reason I say that is because I don't find the SEC's reported decision as much of a surprise. The Trump administration has vocally supported the crypto industry -- from the campaign trail and now even in the White House. Earlier this month, the president hosted a crypto summit at the White House and even doubled down on his intention to form a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to augment the nation's balance sheet.

我之所以這樣說是因為我沒有發現SEC報告的決定令人驚訝。特朗普政府從競選活動中甚至在白宮中聲音支持加密貨幣行業。本月早些時候，總統在白宮舉行了加密峰會，甚至將他打算組成戰略性比特幣儲備金的意圖增加一倍，以增強美國資產負債表。

Although none of these factors specifically involves XRP, I found the appearance of support for the crypto industry from the current administration as enough of a proxy to assume a positive outcome in the Ripple suit.

儘管這些因素都沒有特別涉及XRP，但我發現當前政府對加密工業的支持似乎足以在波紋訴訟中取得積極的結果。

Is XRP a good buy right now?

XRP現在是好買嗎？

As of this writing, the price of XRP is roughly $2.39. While that might look cheap compared to Bitcoin's price of $84,400, looking at absolute dollars can be misleading.

截至撰寫本文時，XRP的價格約為2.39美元。雖然與比特幣的價格為84,400美元相比，這看起來可能便宜，但看絕對美元可能會產生誤導。

Despite the appearance of a low dollar amount, XRP boasts a market cap of $139 billion. That makes XRP more valuable than Shopify, Boeing, Intel, and CrowdStrike.

儘管出現了較低的美元金額，但XRP的市值為1,390億美元。這使XRP比Shopify，波音，英特爾和CrowdStrike更有價值。

To get a better sense of XRP's valuation relative to other payments networks, let's look at PayPal. According to Statista, PayPal holds an estimated 45% market share among online payments processors -- the largest in the world.

為了更好地了解XRP相對於其他付款網絡的估值，讓我們看一下PayPal。根據Statista的數據，PayPal估計在在線支付處理器中佔45％的市場份額，這是世界上最大的。

But what if I told you that XRP's market cap is nearly double that of PayPal?

但是，如果我告訴您XRP的市值幾乎是PayPal的兩倍，該怎麼辦？

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind with XRP is that its penetration of the global payments market is still quite low. While it's caught on in some regions such as Japan, XRP hasn't reached adoption rates anywhere near legacy processors -- and a win in the SEC case doesn't necessarily guarantee any near-term expansion opportunities.

XRP要記住的最重要的事情可能是，其對全球支付市場的滲透仍然很低。雖然它在日本等某些地區被吸引了，但XRP尚未達到傳統處理器附近的任何地方的採用率 - 在SEC案件中，勝利並不一定能保證任何近期擴張的機會。

I see an investment in XRP as somewhere between real utility coins like Bitcoin and meme coins such as Dogecoin. What I mean by that is that XRP has a proven use case (i.e., utility), but its price action largely follows narratives (just like a meme investment).

我認為對XRP的投資是像比特幣這樣的實用硬幣和狗狗等模因硬幣之間的某個地方。我的意思是XRP具有可靠的用例（即公用事業），但其價格行動在很大程度上遵循敘事（就像模因投資一樣）。

Although I think that XRP's prospects are looking brighter, I question if the current valuation is justified. Despite some good news out of the SEC, I don't see XRP as a compelling buy at its current price point.

儘管我認為XRP的前景看起來更明亮，但我質疑當前的估值是否合理。儘管SEC中有一些好消息，但我並沒有將XRP視為當前價格的引人注目的購買。