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尽管过去几年价格走势相对较差,但 XRP 仍然是一种非常受欢迎的加密货币。
Despite XRP's remarkable popularity among crypto enthusiasts, its price performance in recent years has left much to be desired. As a result, many XRP investors are eagerly anticipating a significant price increase in the future. One burning question on their minds is whether XRP has the potential to reach an astronomical price of $100.
尽管 XRP 在加密货币爱好者中非常受欢迎,但近年来其价格表现仍有很多不足之处。因此,许多 XRP 投资者热切期待未来价格的大幅上涨。他们心中的一个紧迫问题是 XRP 是否有潜力达到 100 美元的天文数字。
In this article, we will delve into the likelihood of XRP reaching $100 and explore some of the key factors that could influence its price trajectory. We will also examine some bullish catalysts for XRP and conclude with a long-term XRP price prediction from CoinCodex.
在本文中,我们将深入研究 XRP 达到 100 美元的可能性,并探讨一些可能影响其价格轨迹的关键因素。我们还将研究 XRP 的一些看涨催化剂,并以 CoinCodex 的长期 XRP 价格预测作为结论。
Let's begin our analysis.
让我们开始我们的分析。
Can XRP reach $100? The chances are extremely slim
XRP 能达到 100 美元吗?机会极其渺茫
To assess the possibility of XRP reaching $100, we need to consider several crucial aspects, including XRP's total and circulating supply, which would play a significant role in determining its market capitalization at an XRP price of $100.
为了评估 XRP 达到 100 美元的可能性,我们需要考虑几个关键方面,包括 XRP 的总供应量和流通供应量,这将在决定 XRP 价格为 100 美元时的市值方面发挥重要作用。
Let's start with some simple calculations:
让我们从一些简单的计算开始:
* XRP has a maximum supply of 99.99 billion coins, which means that the market capitalization of XRP at a price of $100 per XRP would be $9.99 trillion. This would be significantly larger than the highest market cap ever reached by the cryptocurrency market, which was just over $3 trillion.
* XRP 的最大供应量为 999.9 亿枚,这意味着每 XRP 价格为 100 美元时,XRP 的市值将为 9.99 万亿美元。这将远远大于加密货币市场有史以来达到的最高市值(刚刚超过 3 万亿美元)。
* Currently, the circulating supply of XRP is 56.56 billion coins, which would imply a market capitalization of $5.65 trillion at an XRP price of $100. This would still be substantially larger than the highest ever combined market cap of the entire crypto market.
* 目前,XRP 的流通量为 565.6 亿枚,这意味着 XRP 价格为 100 美元时,市值为 5.65 万亿美元。这仍然远远大于整个加密货币市场有史以来最高的总市值。
Just from these two simple calculations alone, we can see that XRP reaching a price of $100 is not a likely scenario.
仅从这两个简单的计算来看,我们就可以看出 XRP 的价格不太可能达到 100 美元。
To add to that, we should also consider that XRP has never even come close to reaching a price of $100. At its historical peak in January of 2018, XRP set an all-time high of $3.50. Even at that price, an additional 28.5x price increase would be required to reach $100.
除此之外,我们还应该考虑到 XRP 的价格从未接近过 100 美元。 XRP 在 2018 年 1 月达到历史最高点,创下 3.50 美元的历史新高。即使按照这个价格,也需要额外加价 28.5 倍才能达到 100 美元。
We should also point out that XRP hasn't traded at $1 or above since 2018, despite the major cryptocurrency bull market in 2021. This further shows that $100 is not a realistic price target for XRP at the moment.
我们还应该指出,尽管 2021 年出现了主要的加密货币牛市,但自 2018 年以来,XRP 的交易价格从未达到 1 美元或以上。这进一步表明,100 美元目前并不是 XRP 的现实价格目标。
To better visualize what different price levels would mean for the market cap of XRP, let's quickly calculate what the coin's market cap would be under various price and supply assumptions.
为了更好地了解不同价格水平对 XRP 市值的影响,让我们快速计算一下在不同价格和供应假设下该代币的市值。
*Calculations involving the circulating supply assume a 56.56 billion circulating XRP supply (as of October 11, 2024).
*涉及流通供应量的计算假设流通 XRP 供应量为 565.6 亿(截至 2024 年 10 月 11 日)。
*Calculations involving the total supply assume a 99.99 billion XRP supply.
*涉及总供应量的计算假设 XRP 供应量为 999.9 亿。
Bullish catalysts for XRP
XRP 的看涨催化剂
Although a $100 price tag is out of the question for XRP at the moment, this doesn't mean that XRP has no potential for price appreciation. Let's explore some of the key factors that could drive upwards momentum in the XRP price.
尽管目前 XRP 的价格不可能达到 100 美元,但这并不意味着 XRP 没有升值潜力。让我们探讨一些可能推动 XRP 价格上涨势头的关键因素。
Positive developments in the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit
Ripple 诉 SEC 诉讼取得积极进展
One of the biggest factors why XRP has been performing so poorly in the last 5 years despite a full-blown crypto bull market in 2021 is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and U.S. securities regulator SEC, which began in December of 2020.
尽管 2021 年加密货币牛市全面成熟,但 XRP 在过去 5 年表现如此糟糕的最大因素之一是 Ripple 与美国证券监管机构 SEC 之间自 2020 年 12 月开始的持续法律战。
Although the SEC is making multiple allegations against Ripple, the crux of the issue is that the SEC considers XRP to be an unregistered security issued by Ripple. Meanwhile, Ripple is arguing that XRP is not a security and shouldn't be treated according to securities laws.
尽管 SEC 对 Ripple 提出多项指控,但问题的关键在于 SEC 认为 XRP 是 Ripple 发行的未注册证券。与此同时,Ripple 辩称 XRP 不是证券,不应根据证券法对待。
In August of 2024, Ripple scored a major victory in the legal battle as a judge ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in penalties despite the SEC seeking a much larger amount ($2 billion). Although this was certainly a very positive development for Ripple and XRP, the legal battle with the regulator is not yet over.
2024 年 8 月,Ripple 在这场法律战中取得了重大胜利,尽管 SEC 寻求更高的金额(20 亿美元),但法官仍下令 Ripple 支付 1.25 亿美元的罚款。尽管这对于 Ripple 和 XRP 来说无疑是一个非常积极的发展,但与监管机构的法律斗争尚未结束。
In October of 2024, the SEC appealed a 2023 federal ruling which stated that XRP was not a security.
2024 年 10 月,SEC 对 2023 年联邦裁决提出上诉,该裁决称 XRP 不是证券。
Whether we like it or not, the developments in the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC will likely play a substantial role in XRP price action moving forward.
无论我们喜欢与否,Ripple 与 SEC 之间的法律斗争的进展可能会对 XRP 价格走势的未来发挥重要作用。
The RLUSD stablecoin
RLUSD 稳定币
Another positive development for XRP is that Ripple is preparing to launch a dollar-pegged stablecoin called Ripple USD, or RLUSD. This stablecoin, which will be available on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, will be redeemable for US dollars on a 1:1 basis.
XRP 的另一个积极进展是 Ripple 正准备推出一种与美元挂钩的稳定币,称为 Ripple USD 或 RLUSD。该稳定币将在 XRP Ledger 和以太坊上使用,并可按 1:1 的比例兑换为美元。
Testing, testing…RLUSD! We’re excited to share that Ripple USD (RLUSD) is now in private beta on XRP Ledger and Ethereum mainnet. RLUSD has not yet received regulatory approval and therefore is not available for purchase or trading – please
测试,测试……RLUSD!我们很高兴地告诉大家,Ripple USD (RLUSD) 现已在 XRP Ledger 和以太坊主网上进行内测。 RLUSD 尚未获得监管部门批准,因此不可购买或交易 – 请
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