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儘管過去幾年價格走勢相對較差,但 XRP 仍然是一種非常受歡迎的加密貨幣。
Despite XRP's remarkable popularity among crypto enthusiasts, its price performance in recent years has left much to be desired. As a result, many XRP investors are eagerly anticipating a significant price increase in the future. One burning question on their minds is whether XRP has the potential to reach an astronomical price of $100.
儘管 XRP 在加密貨幣愛好者中非常受歡迎,但近年來其價格表現仍有許多不足之處。因此,許多 XRP 投資者熱切期待未來價格的大幅上漲。他們心中的一個迫切問題是 XRP 是否有潛力達到 100 美元的天文數字。
In this article, we will delve into the likelihood of XRP reaching $100 and explore some of the key factors that could influence its price trajectory. We will also examine some bullish catalysts for XRP and conclude with a long-term XRP price prediction from CoinCodex.
在本文中,我們將深入研究 XRP 達到 100 美元的可能性,並探討一些可能影響其價格軌蹟的關鍵因素。我們也將研究 XRP 的一些看漲催化劑,並以 CoinCodex 的長期 XRP 價格預測作為結論。
Let's begin our analysis.
讓我們開始我們的分析。
Can XRP reach $100? The chances are extremely slim
XRP 能達到 100 美元嗎?機會極度渺茫
To assess the possibility of XRP reaching $100, we need to consider several crucial aspects, including XRP's total and circulating supply, which would play a significant role in determining its market capitalization at an XRP price of $100.
為了評估 XRP 達到 100 美元的可能性,我們需要考慮幾個關鍵方面,包括 XRP 的總供應量和流通供應量,這將在決定 XRP 價格為 100 美元時的市值方面發揮重要作用。
Let's start with some simple calculations:
讓我們從一些簡單的計算開始:
* XRP has a maximum supply of 99.99 billion coins, which means that the market capitalization of XRP at a price of $100 per XRP would be $9.99 trillion. This would be significantly larger than the highest market cap ever reached by the cryptocurrency market, which was just over $3 trillion.
* XRP 的最大供應量為 999.9 億枚,這意味著每 XRP 價格為 100 美元時,XRP 的市值將為 9.99 兆美元。這將遠大於加密貨幣市場有史以來達到的最高市值(剛超過 3 兆美元)。
* Currently, the circulating supply of XRP is 56.56 billion coins, which would imply a market capitalization of $5.65 trillion at an XRP price of $100. This would still be substantially larger than the highest ever combined market cap of the entire crypto market.
* 目前,XRP 的流通量為 565.6 億枚,這意味著 XRP 價格為 100 美元時,市值為 5.65 兆美元。這仍然遠大於整個加密貨幣市場有史以來最高的總市值。
Just from these two simple calculations alone, we can see that XRP reaching a price of $100 is not a likely scenario.
僅從這兩個簡單的計算來看,我們就可以看出 XRP 的價格不太可能達到 100 美元。
To add to that, we should also consider that XRP has never even come close to reaching a price of $100. At its historical peak in January of 2018, XRP set an all-time high of $3.50. Even at that price, an additional 28.5x price increase would be required to reach $100.
除此之外,我們還應該考慮到 XRP 的價格從未接近過 100 美元。 XRP 在 2018 年 1 月達到歷史最高點,創下 3.50 美元的歷史新高。即使以這個價格,也需要額外加價 28.5 倍才能達到 100 美元。
We should also point out that XRP hasn't traded at $1 or above since 2018, despite the major cryptocurrency bull market in 2021. This further shows that $100 is not a realistic price target for XRP at the moment.
我們還應該指出,儘管 2021 年出現了主要的加密貨幣牛市,但自 2018 年以來,XRP 的交易價格從未達到 1 美元或以上。
To better visualize what different price levels would mean for the market cap of XRP, let's quickly calculate what the coin's market cap would be under various price and supply assumptions.
為了更了解不同價格水準對 XRP 市值的影響,讓我們快速計算一下在不同價格和供應假設下該代幣的市值。
*Calculations involving the circulating supply assume a 56.56 billion circulating XRP supply (as of October 11, 2024).
*涉及流通供應量的計算假設流通 XRP 供應量為 565.6 億(截至 2024 年 10 月 11 日)。
*Calculations involving the total supply assume a 99.99 billion XRP supply.
*涉及總供應量的計算假設 XRP 供應量為 999.9 億。
Bullish catalysts for XRP
XRP 的看漲催化劑
Although a $100 price tag is out of the question for XRP at the moment, this doesn't mean that XRP has no potential for price appreciation. Let's explore some of the key factors that could drive upwards momentum in the XRP price.
儘管目前 XRP 的價格不可能達到 100 美元,但這並不意味著 XRP 沒有升值潛力。讓我們探討一些可能推動 XRP 價格上漲動能的關鍵因素。
Positive developments in the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit
Ripple v. SEC 訴訟取得積極進展
One of the biggest factors why XRP has been performing so poorly in the last 5 years despite a full-blown crypto bull market in 2021 is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and U.S. securities regulator SEC, which began in December of 2020.
儘管 2021 年加密貨幣多頭市場全面成熟,但 XRP 在過去 5 年表現如此糟糕的最大因素之一是 Ripple 與美國證券監管機構 SEC 之間自 2020 年 12 月開始的持續法律戰。
Although the SEC is making multiple allegations against Ripple, the crux of the issue is that the SEC considers XRP to be an unregistered security issued by Ripple. Meanwhile, Ripple is arguing that XRP is not a security and shouldn't be treated according to securities laws.
儘管 SEC 對 Ripple 提出多項指控,但問題的關鍵在於 SEC 認為 XRP 是 Ripple 發行的未註冊證券。同時,Ripple 辯稱 XRP 不是證券,不應根據證券法處理。
In August of 2024, Ripple scored a major victory in the legal battle as a judge ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in penalties despite the SEC seeking a much larger amount ($2 billion). Although this was certainly a very positive development for Ripple and XRP, the legal battle with the regulator is not yet over.
2024 年 8 月,Ripple 在這場法律戰中取得了重大勝利,儘管 SEC 尋求更高的金額(20 億美元),但法官仍下令 Ripple 支付 1.25 億美元的罰款。儘管這對 Ripple 和 XRP 來說無疑是一個非常積極的發展,但與監管機構的法律鬥爭尚未結束。
In October of 2024, the SEC appealed a 2023 federal ruling which stated that XRP was not a security.
2024 年 10 月,SEC 對 2023 年聯邦裁決提出上訴,該裁決稱 XRP 不是證券。
Whether we like it or not, the developments in the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC will likely play a substantial role in XRP price action moving forward.
無論我們喜歡與否,Ripple 與 SEC 之間的法律鬥爭的進展可能會對 XRP 價格趨勢的未來發揮重要作用。
The RLUSD stablecoin
RLUSD 穩定幣
Another positive development for XRP is that Ripple is preparing to launch a dollar-pegged stablecoin called Ripple USD, or RLUSD. This stablecoin, which will be available on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, will be redeemable for US dollars on a 1:1 basis.
XRP 的另一個積極進展是 Ripple 正準備推出一種與美元掛鉤的穩定幣,稱為 Ripple USD 或 RLUSD。該穩定幣將在 XRP Ledger 和以太坊上提供,並可按 1:1 的比例兌換為美元。
Testing, testing…RLUSD! We’re excited to share that Ripple USD (RLUSD) is now in private beta on XRP Ledger and Ethereum mainnet. RLUSD has not yet received regulatory approval and therefore is not available for purchase or trading – please
測試,測試…RLUSD!我們很高興地告訴大家,Ripple USD (RLUSD) 現已在 XRP Ledger 和以太坊主網上進行內測。 RLUSD 尚未獲得監管部門批准,因此不可購買或交易 – 請
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