XRP 价格预测：看不到历史新高

XRP 的价格在过去 90 天内飙升了 282%，这表明 XRP 在山寨币中表现出色。然而，该代币目前的势头已经减弱。

XRP’s price has surged by 282% over the past 90 days, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and most altcoins during this period. This remarkable performance has also coincided with a surge in XRP DEX volume, which reached $61.01 million on December 2.

XRP 的价格在过去 90 天内飙升了 282%，在此期间的表现优于比特币 (BTC) 和大多数山寨币。这一出色的表现也与 XRP DEX 交易量的激增同时发生，12 月 2 日交易量达到 6101 万美元。

This development has led to speculation that XRP could be poised to lead altcoin season, especially considering its strong performance and role in facilitating fast settlements of different currencies on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

这一发展引发了人们的猜测，XRP 可能会引领山寨币季节，特别是考虑到其强劲的表现以及在促进 XRP Ledger (XRPL) 上不同货币快速结算方面的作用。

However, the recent downturn in XRP’s price and a shift in altcoin season dynamics could impact the token's ability to reach new highs. Here's a closer look at the factors affecting XRP's price and its potential to reach a new all-time high before 2024 ends.

然而，最近 XRP 价格的下跌和山寨币季节动态的变化可能会影响该代币达到新高的能力。以下是影响 XRP 价格的因素及其在 2024 年底前达到新的历史高点的潜力。

XRP Price Surges 282% in 90 Days, But Recent Pullback Could Hinder New Highs

XRP 价格在 90 天内飙升 282%，但近期回调可能阻碍新高

The altcoin season is a period when non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies collectively outperform BTC. To determine whether an altcoin season is occurring, the Altcoin Season Index tracks the percentage of the top 50 non-BTC coins that outperformed Bitcoin over a specific period, usually a quarter or a year. If 75% or more of these coins outperformed BTC, then an altcoin season is confirmed.

山寨币季节是非比特币加密货币总体表现优于比特币的时期。为了确定山寨币季节是否正在发生，山寨币季节指数追踪了在特定时期（通常是一个季度或一年）表现优于比特币的前 50 种非 BTC 代币的百分比。如果这些代币中 75% 或更多的表现优于 BTC，则山寨币季节就确定了。

During Q4 2023, XRP was among the top performers, contributing to a peak in the Altcoin Season Index to 78. This indicated an undeniable altcoin season, especially with multiple altcoins, including XRP, outperforming BTC throughout the quarter.

在 2023 年第四季度，XRP 是表现最好的货币之一，导致山寨币季节指数达到 78 的峰值。这表明山寨币季节是不可否认的，尤其是包括 XRP 在内的多种山寨币，整个季度的表现优于 BTC。

As of late, however, this momentum has shifted with a decline in altcoin prices. This shift has also led to a drop in the Altcoin Season Index to 47, reflecting a move toward neutral sentiment.

然而，最近随着山寨币价格的下跌，这种势头已经发生了转变。这一转变还导致山寨币季节指数跌至 47，反映出市场情绪转向中性。

Should this momentum continue to fade, then XRP price risks falling below $2, making it less likely for the token to reach a new all-time high before 2024 ends.

如果这种势头继续消退，那么 XRP 价格可能会跌破 2 美元，从而使其不太可能在 2024 年底之前达到新的历史高点。

Another indicator that could support this extended decline is the XRP DEX volume. This metric measures the value of the cryptocurrency traded on the XRPL over a period of time, usually a day.

另一个可能支持这种持续下跌的指标是 XRP DEX 交易量。该指标衡量一段时间内（通常是一天）在 XRPL 上交易的加密货币的价值。

When the DEX volume rises, it suggests increasing demand for the token. On the other hand, a dwindling DEX volume indicates decreasing demand.

当 DEX 交易量上升时，表明对该代币的需求增加。另一方面，DEX 交易量的减少表明需求的减少。

As mentioned above, the XRP DEX volume climbed to $61.01 million on December 2. Today, it is down to $2.66 million, indicating that the value of the token traded dropped by approximately $58 million. If sustained, XRP price might face sustained downward pressure.

如上所述，XRP DEX 交易量在 12 月 2 日攀升至 6101 万美元。如今，其交易量下降至 266 万美元，这表明交易的代币价值下降了约 5800 万美元。如果持续下去，XRP 价格可能面临持续下行压力。

XRP Price Death Cross Signals Potential Downturn

XRP 价格死亡交叉预示着潜在的低迷

On the 4-hour XRP/USD chart, the altcoin has faced a death cross. A death cross occurs when the longer Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slides below the shorter one and is a bearish sign.

在 4 小时 XRP/USD 图表上，山寨币面临死亡交叉。当较长的指数移动平均线 (EMA) 跌破较短的指数移动平均线时，就会出现死亡交叉，这是一个看跌信号。

The opposite is called a golden cross which involves a crossover of the longer EMA above the shorter one. As seen below, the 50 EMA (yellow) has risen above the 20 EMA (blue) as the price has also dropped below these indicators.

相反的情况称为黄金交叉，其中较长的 EMA 与较短的 EMA 交叉。如下图所示，50 EMA（黄色）已升至 20 EMA（蓝色）上方，而价格也跌破这些指标。

Should this trend continue, XRP’s value could decline to $1.75. However, if sentiment turns bullish and the EMAs form a golden cross, the trend might reverse. If that happens, the XRP price might rally to $2.90.

如果这种趋势持续下去，XRP 的价值可能会跌至 1.75 美元。然而，如果情绪转为看涨并且均线形成金叉，趋势可能会逆转。如果发生这种情况，XRP 价格可能会上涨至 2.90 美元。

XRP’s price has faced a death cross on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential downturn. However, the 50 EMA might act as support, leading to a potential bounce. If this occurs, XRP price could rise to $2.90, setting it up for a new all-time high.

XRP 的价格在 4 小时图表上面临死亡交叉，表明潜在的下跌。然而，50 EMA 可能会起到支撑作用，导致潜在的反弹。如果发生这种情况，XRP 价格可能会上涨至 2.90 美元，创下历史新高。

If not, then the EMA might amplify the bearish pressure, pushing XRP price down to $1.75 before 2024 ends, making a new all-time high unlikely.

如果没有，那么 EMA 可能会放大看跌压力，在 2024 年结束之前将 XRP 价格推低至 1.75 美元，从而不太可能创下新的历史高点。