如果 XRP 恢复 2018 年比特币市值的百分比，XRP 价格有可能达到两位数

在美联储对经济的强硬立场导致大盘回调的背景下，XRP 遭受了巨大打击。

XRP price has the potential to reach a two-digit figure if XRP recaptures the percentage of Bitcoin market cap it held in 2018 before the SEC lawsuit.

如果 XRP 恢复到 2018 年美国证券交易委员会提起诉讼之前所占比特币市值的百分比，那么 XRP 的价格有可能达到两位数。

Amid a broader market pullback from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on the economy, XRP has suffered a huge blow. The altcoin’s price collapsed from a top of $2.72 on Dec. 17 to a floor of $1.96 on Dec. 20, marking a massive 28% decline within four days.

在美联储对经济的强硬立场导致大盘回调的背景下，XRP 遭受了巨大打击。该山寨币的价格从 12 月 17 日的最高点 2.72 美元暴跌至 12 月 20 日的最低点 1.96 美元，四天内大幅下跌 28%。

XRP recovered from the $1.96 low as a result of the robust support at this level, a region that previously acted as resistance. Despite the rebound, XRP price is still 25% down from the $2.72 peak, currently hovering around $2.16 at press time.

由于该水平的强劲支撑，XRP 从 1.96 美元的低点回升，该区域之前是阻力位。尽管出现反弹，但 XRP 价格仍较 2.72 美元峰值下跌 25%，截至发稿时目前徘徊在 2.16 美元左右。

At this price, XRP’s market cap stands at $132 billion, according to data from TradingView. It bears mentioning that XRP hit an all-time high market valuation of $165 billion on Dec. 3, when its price soared to the seven-year high of $2.9. Before now, the peak valuation stood at $128.5 billion in January 2018.

根据 TradingView 的数据，按此价格计算，XRP 的市值为 1320 亿美元。值得一提的是，XRP 于 12 月 3 日创下了 1650 亿美元的历史新高，当时其价格飙升至 2.9 美元的七年高点。此前，估值峰值出现在 2018 年 1 月，达到 1285 亿美元。

However, despite this cycle’s valuation being greater than the 2017/2018 valuation, it captures a much lower chunk of Bitcoin’s market cap. For context, in January 2018, when XRP’s market cap hit $128.5 billion, Bitcoin had a valuation of $260.05 billion. This indicates that XRP captured 49.4% of BTC’s market cap at the time.

然而，尽管本周期的估值高于 2017/2018 年的估值，但它在比特币市值中所占的份额要低得多。就背景而言，2018 年 1 月，当 XRP 的市值达到 1285 亿美元时，比特币的估值为 2600.5 亿美元。这表明 XRP 占据了当时 BTC 市值的 49.4%。

This ratio continued to decline considerably as XRP price faced turbulence over the years, while Bitcoin thrived. Further, the SEC lawsuit, which began in December 2020, exacerbated XRP’s underperformance, resulting in the asset missing out on the 2020/2021 bull run.

随着 XRP 价格多年来面临动荡，而比特币却蓬勃发展，这一比率继续大幅下降。此外，自 2020 年 12 月开始的 SEC 诉讼加剧了 XRP 的表现不佳，导致该资产错过了 2020/2021 年牛市。

Amid this sustained underperformance, the ratio of XRP’s market cap to Bitcoin’s valuation has plummeted considerably. For instance, at the start of this year, on Jan. 1, XRP only had 3.9% of Bitcoin’s market cap. Notably, at the time, XRP’s valuation stood at $33 billion, while Bitcoin had a market cap of $838 billion.

在持续表现不佳的情况下，XRP 的市值与比特币估值的比率大幅下降。例如，今年年初的 1 月 1 日，XRP 仅占比特币市值的 3.9%。值得注意的是，当时 XRP 的估值为 330 亿美元，而比特币的市值为 8380 亿美元。

Interestingly, following the November rally, XRP’s market cap has skyrocketed to new heights. Now, with a market valuation of $132 billion, XRP captures about 6.8% of Bitcoin’s market cap, which now sits at $1.93 trillion. This is still way below the 49.4% ratio from 2018.

有趣的是，继 11 月上涨之后，XRP 的市值已飙升至新高。现在，XRP 的市值为 1320 亿美元，约占比特币市值的 6.8%，目前比特币市值为 1.93 万亿美元。这仍远低于 2018 年 49.4% 的比例。

Nonetheless, market experts believe XRP price will only surge further from here, especially after the ongoing correction ends. If XRP reclaimed the 49.4% Bitcoin market cap ratio, the implications would be massive for prices.

尽管如此，市场专家认为 XRP 价格只会进一步飙升，尤其是在持续调整结束之后。如果 XRP 夺回比特币 49.4% 的市值比例，这对价格的影响将是巨大的。

For context, 49.4% of the current Bitcoin valuation is $953 billion. Should XRP reach a market cap of $953 billion, its price would skyrocket to $16.6, considering the circulating supply of 57.25 billion tokens.

就背景而言，当前比特币估值的 49.4% 为 9530 亿美元。如果 XRP 的市值达到 9530 亿美元，考虑到 572.5 亿代币的流通供应量，其价格将飙升至 16.6 美元。

Such a price would mark a 621% increase from the current XRP price. Interestingly, market expert EGRAG had previously projected this price target for XRP. In October, EGRAG leveraged a Linear Regression principle to set three XRP price targets, including $16.

这样的价格将比当前 XRP 价格上涨 621%。有趣的是，市场专家 EGRAG 此前曾预测过 XRP 的这一价格目标。 10 月份，EGRAG 利用线性回归原理设定了三个 XRP 价格目标，其中包括 16 美元。

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