XRP（coinchapter.com） - XRP价格可能在2025年面临残酷的下降

XRP价格在2025年可能会出现残酷的下跌，因为零售的猜测增加，盈利能力削弱以及早期持有人分配

The cryptocurrency market has seen a surge in retail speculation, leading to a potential local top in XRP price, according to on-chain metrics by Glassnode.

据GlassNode的链指标称，加密货币市场的零售投机激增，导致XRP价格的潜在本地顶级。

While Bitcoin price stabilizes near the $80,000 range, on-chain data suggests that XRP’s recent rally was driven by fragile demand and retail euphoria. That trend now appears to be reversing.

尽管比特币价格稳定在80,000美元的范围内，但链上的数据表明，XRP最近的集会是由脆弱的需求和零售欣快的驱动的。现在，这种趋势似乎正在逆转。

As a result, XRP may face a brutal decline in 2025, with early holders distributing and profitability deteriorating.

结果，XRP可能在2025年面临残酷的下降，而早期持有人分配和盈利能力恶化。

On April 3, XRP traded around $2.05, down more than 40% from its January high of $3.40. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, could pull the price down to $1.07—a 55% drop.

4月3日，XRP交易约2.05美元，比1月份的高处3.40美元下降了40％以上。经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）警告说，教科书的头和露以及该模式，如果确认，该模式可能会将价格降至1.07美元，下降了55％。

“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it. H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger,” Brandt said in an April 1 post.

“低于1.9美元，我不想拥有它。H＆S项目至1.07美元。不要射击使者，”布兰特在4月1日的帖子中说。

On-chain metrics from Glassnode suggest that the Brix crypto market is entering a critical juncture. Bitcoin price stability contrasts sharply with the fragility of XRP's rally, driven largely by new participants and fragile demand, according to the firm.

GlassNode的链链指标表明，Brix Crypto市场正在进入关键时刻。该公司称，比特币价格稳定性与XRP集会的脆弱性形成鲜明对比，这主要是由新参与者和脆弱需求驱动的。

Active addresses on the XRP network surged by over 490% since the 2022 cycle low, while its Realized Cap nearly doubled—from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion—between December 2024 and February 2025.

自2022年周期以来，XRP网络上的主动地址飙升了490％以上，而其实现的上限几乎翻了一番，从2024年12月和2025年2月之间，从301亿美元到642亿美元。

Over $30 billion of that capital came from investors who bought in within the last six months, highlighting a top-heavy market. Profitability metrics have also deteriorated. The Realized Loss/Profit Ratio for XRP has been falling steadily since January 2025, reflecting more losses than gains realized on-chain.

超过300亿美元的资本来自在过去六个月内购买的投资者，突出了一个繁重的市场。盈利能力指标也在恶化。自2025年1月以来，XRP的实现损失/利润率一直在稳步下降，反映出损失比实现的链上的收益更多。

The share of XRP’s Realized Cap held by addresses younger than six months rose from 23% to 62.8%, indicating that most of the money now sits with short-term holders. These wallets are more likely to exit positions quickly under stress, increasing the risk of a sharp drawdown.

XRP实现的上限占据了六个月以下的地址的份额从23％上升到62.8％，这表明现在的大部分资金都与短期持有人相提并论。这些钱包更有可能在压力下迅速退出位置，从而增加了急剧下降的风险。

Moreover, on-chain data shows that the percentage of XRP that was last active more than a year ago plunged during the Dec. 2024 rally. That indicates long-term holders—often considered “smart money”—sold strength. In 2017, XRP’s dormant supply dropped sharply as the token hit $3.20, followed by a 90% crash. A similar move occurred in 2021, when the price peaked near $1.96 and dropped 75%.

此外，链上的数据表明，一年多以前的XRP百分比在2024年12月的拉力赛中跌落。这表明长期持有人通常被认为是“聪明的钱”。 2017年，由于令牌达到3.20美元，XRP的休眠供应急剧下降，随后发生了90％的撞车事故。在2021年，当价格达到$ 1.96并下降75％时，也发生了类似的举动。

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric recently entered the “denial” zone, which coincides with euphoric conditions that preceded previous collapses.

GlassNode的净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）度量标准最近进入了“拒绝”区，该区域与先前倒塌之前的欣喜状态相吻合。

Key takeaways from the latest XRP price analysis:

最新XRP价格分析的关键要点：

● XRP dropped 4.7% last week as Bitcoin pushed to $88,800. Trading volume fell 35% to $2.6 billion, showing clear outflows.

●上周XRP下降了4.7％，因为比特币将其推向88,800美元。交易量下降了35％，至26亿美元，显示出清晰的流出。

● The weekly chart shows a head-and-shoulders breakdown forming. Price is testing the neckline at $1.90. A confirmed close below it could open a path to $1.07, according to Peter Brandt.

●每周图表显示形成头和肩膀的故障。价格将领口的价格为$ 1.90。根据彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）的说法，在下面确认的近距离可以打开1.07美元的道路。

● XRP also trades near its 50-week EMA at $1.58. A drop below this level could extend losses toward the 200-week EMA near $0.87.

●XRP还在其50周EMA附近的交易价格为1.58美元。低于此级别的下降可能会将损失扩大到200周的EMA近0.87美元。

● Despite bullish calls from traders like Javon Marks and Stellar Babe, market structure remains weak. Lower highs, falling RSI, and collapsing volume suggest bearish momentum is building.

●尽管看涨Javon Marks和Stellar Babe等商人的电话，市场结构仍然很弱。较低的高点，下降的RSI和崩溃的体积表明看跌动量正在建立。

● The XRP price rally that began in late 2024 now shows clear signs of fragility. Retail enthusiasm peaked fast, profit-taking accelerated, and early holders have already exited. A breakdown below $1.90 could open the door to a steep crash in the months ahead, echoing XRP’s past 75% to 90% corrections.

●从2024年底开始的XRP价格集会现在显示出明显的脆弱迹象。零售热情快速，盈利加速，早期持有人已经退出。低于$ 1.90的故障可能会在未来几个月内发生巨大撞车事故，这与XRP的过去75％至90％的更正相呼应。