XRP（coinchapter.com） - XRP價格可能在2025年面臨殘酷的下降

XRP價格在2025年可能會出現殘酷的下跌，因為零售的猜測增加，盈利能力削弱以及早期持有人分配

The cryptocurrency market has seen a surge in retail speculation, leading to a potential local top in XRP price, according to on-chain metrics by Glassnode.

據GlassNode的鏈指標稱，加密貨幣市場的零售投機激增，導致XRP價格的潛在本地頂級。

While Bitcoin price stabilizes near the $80,000 range, on-chain data suggests that XRP’s recent rally was driven by fragile demand and retail euphoria. That trend now appears to be reversing.

儘管比特幣價格穩定在80,000美元的範圍內，但鏈上的數據表明，XRP最近的集會是由脆弱的需求和零售欣快的驅動的。現在，這種趨勢似乎正在逆轉。

As a result, XRP may face a brutal decline in 2025, with early holders distributing and profitability deteriorating.

結果，XRP可能在2025年面臨殘酷的下降，而早期持有人分配和盈利能力惡化。

On April 3, XRP traded around $2.05, down more than 40% from its January high of $3.40. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, could pull the price down to $1.07—a 55% drop.

4月3日，XRP交易約2.05美元，比1月份的高處3.40美元下降了40％以上。經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）警告說，教科書的頭和露以及該模式，如果確認，該模式可能會將價格降至1.07美元，下降了55％。

“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it. H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger,” Brandt said in an April 1 post.

“低於1.9美元，我不想擁有它。H＆S項目至1.07美元。不要射擊使者，”布蘭特在4月1日的帖子中說。

On-chain metrics from Glassnode suggest that the Brix crypto market is entering a critical juncture. Bitcoin price stability contrasts sharply with the fragility of XRP's rally, driven largely by new participants and fragile demand, according to the firm.

GlassNode的鍊鍊指標表明，Brix Crypto市場正在進入關鍵時刻。該公司稱，比特幣價格穩定性與XRP集會的脆弱性形成鮮明對比，這主要是由新參與者和脆弱需求驅動的。

Active addresses on the XRP network surged by over 490% since the 2022 cycle low, while its Realized Cap nearly doubled—from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion—between December 2024 and February 2025.

自2022年周期以來，XRP網絡上的主動地址飆升了490％以上，而其實現的上限幾乎翻了一番，從2024年12月和2025年2月之間，從301億美元到642億美元。

Over $30 billion of that capital came from investors who bought in within the last six months, highlighting a top-heavy market. Profitability metrics have also deteriorated. The Realized Loss/Profit Ratio for XRP has been falling steadily since January 2025, reflecting more losses than gains realized on-chain.

超過300億美元的資本來自在過去六個月內購買的投資者，突出了一個繁重的市場。盈利能力指標也在惡化。自2025年1月以來，XRP的實現損失/利潤率一直在穩步下降，反映出損失比實現的鏈上的收益更多。

The share of XRP’s Realized Cap held by addresses younger than six months rose from 23% to 62.8%, indicating that most of the money now sits with short-term holders. These wallets are more likely to exit positions quickly under stress, increasing the risk of a sharp drawdown.

XRP實現的上限佔據了六個月以下的地址的份額從23％上升到62.8％，這表明現在的大部分資金都與短期持有人相提並論。這些錢包更有可能在壓力下迅速退出位置，從而增加了急劇下降的風險。

Moreover, on-chain data shows that the percentage of XRP that was last active more than a year ago plunged during the Dec. 2024 rally. That indicates long-term holders—often considered “smart money”—sold strength. In 2017, XRP’s dormant supply dropped sharply as the token hit $3.20, followed by a 90% crash. A similar move occurred in 2021, when the price peaked near $1.96 and dropped 75%.

此外，鏈上的數據表明，一年多以前的XRP百分比在2024年12月的拉力賽中跌落。這表明長期持有人通常被認為是“聰明的錢”。 2017年，由於令牌達到3.20美元，XRP的休眠供應急劇下降，隨後發生了90％的撞車事故。在2021年，當價格達到$ 1.96並下降75％時，也發生了類似的舉動。

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric recently entered the “denial” zone, which coincides with euphoric conditions that preceded previous collapses.

GlassNode的淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）度量標準最近進入了“拒絕”區，該區域與先前倒塌之前的欣喜狀態相吻合。

Key takeaways from the latest XRP price analysis:

最新XRP價格分析的關鍵要點：

● XRP dropped 4.7% last week as Bitcoin pushed to $88,800. Trading volume fell 35% to $2.6 billion, showing clear outflows.

●上週XRP下降了4.7％，因為比特幣將其推向88,800美元。交易量下降了35％，至26億美元，顯示出清晰的流出。

● The weekly chart shows a head-and-shoulders breakdown forming. Price is testing the neckline at $1.90. A confirmed close below it could open a path to $1.07, according to Peter Brandt.

●每週圖表顯示形成頭和肩膀的故障。價格將領口的價格為$ 1.90。根據彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）的說法，在下面確認的近距離可以打開1.07美元的道路。

● XRP also trades near its 50-week EMA at $1.58. A drop below this level could extend losses toward the 200-week EMA near $0.87.

●XRP還在其50週EMA附近的交易價格為1.58美元。低於此級別的下降可能會將損失擴大到200週的EMA近0.87美元。

● Despite bullish calls from traders like Javon Marks and Stellar Babe, market structure remains weak. Lower highs, falling RSI, and collapsing volume suggest bearish momentum is building.

●儘管看漲Javon Marks和Stellar Babe等商人的電話，市場結構仍然很弱。較低的高點，下降的RSI和崩潰的體積表明看跌動量正在建立。

● The XRP price rally that began in late 2024 now shows clear signs of fragility. Retail enthusiasm peaked fast, profit-taking accelerated, and early holders have already exited. A breakdown below $1.90 could open the door to a steep crash in the months ahead, echoing XRP’s past 75% to 90% corrections.

●從2024年底開始的XRP價格集會現在顯示出明顯的脆弱跡象。零售熱情快速，盈利加速，早期持有人已經退出。低於$ 1.90的故障可能會在未來幾個月內發生巨大撞車事故，這與XRP的過去75％至90％的更正相呼應。