随着价格下跌，鲸鱼积累更多比特币（BTC）和 XRP

技术分析师阿里·马丁内斯表示，加密货币价格的下跌让鲸鱼积累了更多资产

Technical analyst Ali Martinez has observed a trend of crypto prices dipping and enabling whales to accumulate more assets. In a post on X, he reported that 342 new wallets were created, each holding more than 100 BTC, as the price of Bitcoin dropped from $104,000 to around $90,000.

技术分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）观察到加密货币价格下跌的趋势，并使鲸鱼能够积累更多资产。在 X 上的一篇帖子中，他报告说，随着比特币的价格从 104,000 美元跌至 90,000 美元左右，创建了 342 个新钱包，每个钱包都持有 100 多个 BTC。

According to Martinez, whales are buying every dip as a sign of their strong bullishness about Bitcoin. He added that the price correction is merely a test of investors’ resilience, and those who took advantage are best positioned to ride the next wave.

马丁内斯表示，鲸鱼每次下跌都会买入，这表明他们对比特币强烈看好。他补充说，价格调整只是对投资者韧性的考验，那些利用这一机会的人最有能力驾驭下一波浪潮。

In his words:

用他的话说：

“This correction is a test of resilience, and if you play it right, you’ll be positioned to ride the next wave. This is how the 1% operates—buying fear while the rest of the market hesitates.”

“这次调整是对弹性的考验，如果你处理得当，你将能够驾驭下一波浪潮。这就是 1% 的人的运作方式——在市场其他人犹豫不决时购买恐惧。”

Meanwhile, whales’ acquisition during the dip is not completely surprising. Crypto analyst Mac_D observed that Coinbase Premium surged while the Bitcoin price fell. Coinbase Premium describes the percentage difference between the price of BTC on Coinbase Pro and Binance, usually indicating the time when US institutional investors are buying. The rebound in the Premium implies that US investors buy heavily when there are massive sell-offs on Binance.

与此同时，鲸鱼在下跌期间的收购并不完全令人惊讶。加密货币分析师 Mac_D 观察到，Coinbase Premium 飙升，而比特币价格下跌。 Coinbase Premium描述了Coinbase Pro和Binance上BTC价格之间的百分比差异，通常表明美国机构投资者购买的时间。溢价的反弹意味着，当币安出现大规模抛售时，美国投资者会大量买入。

The analyst noted:

分析师指出：

“This rebound suggests that when excessive panic selling occurs on Binance, which has a higher proportion of small investors, U.S. institutional investors are likely to adopt an aggressive buying strategy.”

“这种反弹表明，当小投资者比例较高的币安出现过度恐慌性抛售时，美国机构投资者可能会采取激进的买入策略。”

Interestingly, Bitcoin is not the only asset investors bought because of its dip. Onchain data also show that whales bought more than 100 million XRP as the token price fell due and retail sold in panic.

有趣的是，比特币并不是投资者因下跌而购买的唯一资产。链上数据还显示，随着代币价格下跌以及散户恐慌抛售，鲸鱼购买了超过 1 亿个 XRP。

Analysts predictions come true as crypto prices rebound

随着加密货币价格反弹，分析师的预测成真

Meanwhile, the dip now appears to be over for now, as almost every crypto asset has seen a surge in price over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin, which fell as low as around $94,000, is now back above $101,000 after an over 6% increase in its value.

与此同时，下跌现在似乎已经结束，因为几乎所有加密资产的价格在过去 24 小时内都出现了飙升。比特币曾一度跌至 94,000 美元左右，在价值上涨超过 6% 后，目前已回到 101,000 美元以上。

With the rise in Bitcoin price, every other major cap token has followed, with XRP seeing the most gains in 24 hours at 18%, according to CoinMarketCap. SOL also increased by 10%, while BNB, DOGE, and ADA added 5%, 8%, and 13%, respectively.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，随着比特币价格的上涨，其他所有主要市值代币也随之上涨，其中 XRP 在 24 小时内涨幅最大，达到 18%。 SOL 也上涨了 10%，而 BNB、DOGE 和 ADA 分别上涨了 5%、8% 和 13%。

Most analysts who predicted the rebound were not surprised. According to Santiment analysts on December 10, the FUD among traders who expect Bitcoin to drop below $90,000 is a positive sign of incoming retail capitulation. This is a good sign, as prices tend to move against market expectations.

大多数预测反弹的分析师并不感到惊讶。 Santiment 分析师 12 月 10 日表示，预计比特币将跌破 90,000 美元的交易员的 FUD 是散户投降即将到来的积极迹象。这是一个好兆头，因为价格往往与市场预期背道而驰。

They wrote:

他们写道：

“FUD is beginning to appear amongst traders. With some calls for $80K-$89K appearing across social media from the crowd once again, take this as a positive sign that retail capitulation is returning. Prices move the opposite direction of crowd expectation, meaning fear is generally necessary for prices to rebound.”

“FUD 开始出现在交易者中。随着一些人再次在社交媒体上呼吁购买 8 万至 8.9 万美元，可以将此视为零售投降正在回归的积极信号。价格走势与大众预期相反，这意味着恐惧通常是价格反弹所必需的。”

However, Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju explained the quick rebound, noting that price corrections for BTC will be relatively small in this bull cycle. He attributes this to steady demand from institutions and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

然而，Cryptoquant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 解释了这种快速反弹，并指出在本次牛市周期中，BTC 的价格调整相对较小。他将此归因于机构和交易所交易基金（ETF）的稳定需求。

Glassnode data also supports this, with analysts noting that the average drawdown since 2022 is -7.68% compared to -16.24% overall. The maximum drawdown for this cycle is only -26.25%, far smaller than the -71.15% between 2011 and 2013. This shows that this cycle has been the least volatile for Bitcoin.

Glassnode 数据也支持了这一点，分析师指出，自 2022 年以来的平均回撤为 -7.68%，而总体回撤为 -16.24%。本周期最大回撤仅为-26.25%，远小于2011年至2013年期间的-71.15%。这表明本周期是比特币波动性最小的周期。

Bitcoin bull cycle expected to last longer as distribution continues

随着分配的继续，比特币牛市周期预计将持续更长的时间

With Bitcoin returning to over $100,000 again, there are already some concerns about how long the good times will last. Experts at Glassnode believe the bull cycle is still in the mid-to-late stage with the potential for more price increases. They noted that cyclical long-term holders (LTH), excluding the ultra LTH who have held for over seven years, now have less than 50% of the BTC supply.

随着比特币再次回到 10 万美元以上，已经有人担心好时光能持续多久。 Glassnode专家认为，牛市周期仍处于中后期，价格有进一步上涨的潜力。他们指出，周期性长期持有者（LTH）（不包括持有七年以上的超 LTH）目前拥有的 BTC 供应量不足 50%。

Generally, these LTHs hold the majority of BTC at the beginning of the bull cycle, and by the peak, their supply has dropped, and short-term holders (STH) have around 70% – 80%.

一般来说，这些 LTH 在牛市周期开始时持有大部分 BTC，到了高峰期，其供应量有所下降，短期持有者 (STH) 的比例约为 70% - 80%。

Although the ETFs have changed the dynamics to some extent, STH still only holds around 50%, far below the over 80% they had when the market peaked in 2021. However, the level of distribution has increased over the last 30 days, with the Long/Short-Term Holder Supply Ratio dropping to 3.78, which is the lowest it’s been this cycle.

尽管 ETF 在一定程度上改变了动态，但 STH 的占比仍仅为 50% 左右，远低于 2021 年市场见顶时的 80% 以上。然而，分配水平在过去 30 天内有所增加，随着长短期持有者供给比率降至 3.78，为本周期以来的最低水平。

Meanwhile, Santiment data shows that the Mean Dollar Invested Age has been declining. This

与此同时，Santiment 数据显示，平均美元投资年龄一直在下降。这