根据新的民意调查，选民在一般国会选票上持平

目前，共和党在美国众议院拥有 220 个席位，民主党占 212 个席位，并有 3 个席位空缺，以微弱优势占据多数。

A new poll finds that voters are evenly divided nationwide on whether they will vote for the Democrat or the Republican running for Congress in their district.

一项新的民意调查发现，全国范围内的选民对于投票支持民主党还是共和党竞选国会议员的比例持平。

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, asked likely voters whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican Congressional candidate in their district, to which 46% said they would support the Democratic candidate and 45% said they would support the Republican candidate, with 8% unsure and 1% saying "other."

与 Noble Predictive Insights 联合进行的中心广场选民之声民意调查询问可能的选民是否会投票给所在选区的民主党或共和党国会候选人，其中 46% 的人表示他们会支持民主党候选人，45% 的人表示他们会投票给民主党或共和党的国会候选人。会支持共和党候选人，8% 的人不确定，1% 的人表示“其他”。

Republicans currently hold a slight majority in the U.S. House with 220 seats to Democrats' 212 and three vacancies. All 435 House seats are up for election on Nov. 5.

目前，共和党在美国众议院拥有 220 个席位，民主党占 212 个席位，并有 3 个席位空缺，以微弱优势占据多数。众议院全部 435 个席位将于 11 月 5 日进行选举。

“The majority in the House is really a coin toss at this point,” David Byler, head of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “Nobody really knows what’s going to happen.”

Noble Predictive Insights 研究主管戴维·拜勒 (David Byler) 告诉 The Center Square：“目前众议院的多数票实际上是在掷硬币。” “没有人真正知道会发生什么。”

The 46%-45% split is well within the poll's +/- 2.1% margin of error, making election results uncertain, Byler noted.

拜勒指出，46%-45%的比例完全在民意调查+/-2.1%的误差范围内，这使得选举结果具有不确定性。

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll – one of only six national tracking polls in the United States – asked 2,290 likely voters to assess both presidential candidates and identify which policy issues they are most concerned with heading into the November election, among other questions.

中心广场选民之声民意调查是美国仅有的六项全国跟踪民意调查之一，要求 2,290 名可能的选民评估两位总统候选人，并确定他们在 11 月选举中最关心的政策问题以及其他问题。

Breaking down polling results by demographic, 80% of Black voters polled said that they would vote for the Democratic candidate compared to only 40% of white voters saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

按人口统计的民意调查结果显示，80% 的接受调查的黑人选民表示他们会投票给民主党候选人，而只有 40% 的白人选民表示他们会投票给民主党候选人。

Another large notable demographic indicator is where voters are geographically. According to the poll, urban voters are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate while suburban and rural voters are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.

另一个值得注意的人口统计指标是选民的地理位置。民意调查显示，城市选民更有可能投票给民主党候选人，而郊区和农村选民更有可能投票给共和党候选人。

Additionally, those residing in the northeast, midwest and west are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate and those living in the south are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.

此外，居住在东北部、中西部和西部的人更有可能投票给民主党候选人，而居住在南部的人更有可能投票给共和党候选人。

The poll also noted that Independent voters seem to be split pretty evenly when it comes to which candidate they would vote for.

民意调查还指出，独立选民在选择投票给哪位候选人时似乎两极分化。

Byler said that there are solid issues that parties emphasize that appeal to different voter demographics. For example, he said the majority of women said that they would vote for the Democratic candidate – something he says is due in part to the talking points of the Democratic candidates.

拜勒表示，各政党强调有一些切实的问题能够吸引不同的选民群体。例如，他说大多数女性表示她们会投票给民主党候选人——他说这部分是由于民主党候选人的谈话要点。

“Democrats often talk about abortion and talk about issues that they think are especially salient for women,” Byler said. “At this point, in the last couple of election cycles, Democrats have nominated two women at the top of a major party ticket.”

“民主党人经常谈论堕胎，并谈论他们认为对女性特别重要的问题，”拜勒说。 “目前，在过去的几个选举周期中，民主党已经提名了两名女性作为主要政党的候选人。”

In contrast, Byler noted that former President Donald Trump and Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance have emphasized a lot of issues important to young and working class men.

相比之下，拜勒指出，前总统唐纳德·特朗普和副总统候选人 JD·万斯强调了许多对年轻人和工人阶级男性重要的问题。

According to the poll, the top issues for Republican voters are illegal immigration, inflation and the economy. The top three issues for Democratic voters are abortion, inflation and climate change, and the top three issues for Independent voters are inflation, illegal immigration and the economy.

民意调查显示，共和党选民最关心的问题是非法移民、通货膨胀和经济。民主党选民最关心的三个问题是堕胎、通货膨胀和气候变化，独立选民最关心的三个问题是通货膨胀、非法移民和经济。

Due to redistricting and a number of open seats, there are quite a few closely contested Congressional races, according to The Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Here are some of the races to watch:

据萨巴托政治中心的水晶球称，由于选区重新划分和大量空缺席位，国会竞选中存在相当多的激烈竞争。以下是一些值得观看的比赛：

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Republican incumbent David Schweikert will be facing Democratic candidate Amish Shah in the general election. Following redistricting in 2020, Schweikert changed from Arizona’s 6th Congressional District to the 1st. Additionally, after the state approved new legislative maps in 2022, the 1st district shifted from a district that voted for Trump to one that would have voted for President Joe Biden. Furthermore, Schweikert won his last election by an incredibly narrow margin at 50.4% to 49.6%.

亚利桑那州第一国会选区：共和党现任议员大卫·施韦克特将在大选中面对民主党候选人阿米什·沙阿。 2020 年选区重新划分后，施韦克特从亚利桑那州的第六国会选区变为第一国会选区。此外，在该州于 2022 年批准新的立法地图后，第一选区从投票给特朗普的选区转变为投票给总统乔·拜登的选区。此外，施韦克特以 50.4% 对 49.6% 的微弱优势赢得了上一次选举。

California’s 13th Congressional District: This district will be seeing a rematch from 2022 where Republican incumbent John Duarte will once again be running against Democrat Adam Gray. Duarte won the 2022 race by only 564 votes, making it the second closest House race in the country that year. Furthermore, CD 13 has typically been a Democratic-led district with Duarte being the first Republican to win the district since 1974.

加州第 13 国会选区：该选区将从 2022 年开始进行重赛，共和党现任议员约翰·杜阿尔特 (John Duarte) 将再次与民主党议员亚当·格雷 (Adam Gray) 竞选。杜阿尔特仅以 564 票的优势赢得了 2022 年的众议院选举，成为该国当年第二接近的众议院选举。此外，CD 13 通常是民主党领导的选区，杜阿尔特是自 1974 年以来第一个赢得该选区的共和党人。

California’s 22nd Congressional District: In another rematch from 2022, Republican incumbent David Valado will be going up against Democrat Rudy Salas. Valado won that race by 3%. Valado was also only one of 14 Republicans to win a Congressional district that Biden won in 2020.

加州第 22 国会选区：在 2022 年的另一场重赛中，共和党现任议员戴维·瓦拉多 (David Valado) 将对阵民主党议员鲁迪·萨拉斯 (Rudy Salas)。瓦拉多 (Valado) 以 3% 的优势赢得了那场比赛。瓦拉多也是赢得拜登 2020 年赢得的国会选区的 14 名共和党人之一。

Colorado’s 8th Congressional District: Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo will be running against Republican Gabe Evans and five other candidates. Caraveo won her 2022 election by less than 1%, making it one of the narrowest House races nationwide that year

科罗拉多州第八国会选区：民主党现任议员亚迪拉·卡拉维奥将与共和党人加布·埃文斯和其他五名候选人竞选。卡拉维奥以不到 1% 的优势赢得 2022 年大选，成为当年全国范围最窄的众议院竞选之一