根據新的民意調查，選民在一般國會選票上的比例持平

目前，共和黨在美國眾議院擁有 220 個席位，民主黨佔 212 個席位，並有 3 個席位空缺，以微弱優勢佔多數。

A new poll finds that voters are evenly divided nationwide on whether they will vote for the Democrat or the Republican running for Congress in their district.

一項新的民調發現，全國的選民對於投票支持民主黨還是共和黨競選國會議員的比例持平。

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, asked likely voters whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican Congressional candidate in their district, to which 46% said they would support the Democratic candidate and 45% said they would support the Republican candidate, with 8% unsure and 1% saying "other."

與Noble Predictive Insights 聯合進行的中心廣場選民之聲民意調查詢問可能的選民是否會投票給所在選區的民主黨或共和黨國會候選人，其中46% 的人表示他們會支持民主黨候選人，45% 的人表示他們會投票給民主黨或共和黨的國會候選人。

Republicans currently hold a slight majority in the U.S. House with 220 seats to Democrats' 212 and three vacancies. All 435 House seats are up for election on Nov. 5.

目前，共和黨在美國眾議院擁有 220 個席位，民主黨佔 212 個席位，並有 3 個席位空缺，以微弱優勢佔多數。眾議院全部 435 個席位將於 11 月 5 日進行選舉。

“The majority in the House is really a coin toss at this point,” David Byler, head of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “Nobody really knows what’s going to happen.”

Noble Predictive Insights 研究主管 David Byler 告訴 The Center Square：“目前眾議院的多數票實際上是在擲硬幣。” “沒有人真正知道會發生什麼。”

The 46%-45% split is well within the poll's +/- 2.1% margin of error, making election results uncertain, Byler noted.

拜勒指出，46%-45%的比例完全在民調+/-2.1%的誤差範圍內，這使得選舉結果具有不確定性。

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll – one of only six national tracking polls in the United States – asked 2,290 likely voters to assess both presidential candidates and identify which policy issues they are most concerned with heading into the November election, among other questions.

中心廣場選民之聲民意調查是美國僅有的六項全國跟踪民意調查之一，要求2,290 名可能的選民評估兩位總統候選人，並確定他們在11 月選舉中最關心的政策問題以及其他問題。

Breaking down polling results by demographic, 80% of Black voters polled said that they would vote for the Democratic candidate compared to only 40% of white voters saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

按人口統計的民調結果顯示，80% 的受調查的黑人選民表示他們會投票給民主黨候選人，而只有 40% 的白人選民表示他們會投票給民主黨候選人。

Another large notable demographic indicator is where voters are geographically. According to the poll, urban voters are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate while suburban and rural voters are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.

另一個值得注意的人口統計指標是選民的地理位置。民調顯示，城市選民更有可能投票給民主黨候選人，而郊區和農村選民更有可能投票給共和黨候選人。

Additionally, those residing in the northeast, midwest and west are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate and those living in the south are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.

此外，居住在東北部、中西部和西部的人更有可能投票給民主黨候選人，而居住在南部的人更有可能投票給共和黨候選人。

The poll also noted that Independent voters seem to be split pretty evenly when it comes to which candidate they would vote for.

民調也指出，獨立選民在選擇投票給哪位候選人時似乎兩極分化。

Byler said that there are solid issues that parties emphasize that appeal to different voter demographics. For example, he said the majority of women said that they would vote for the Democratic candidate – something he says is due in part to the talking points of the Democratic candidates.

拜勒表示，各政黨強調有一些實際的問題能夠吸引不同的選民群體。例如，他說大多數女性表示她們會投票給民主黨候選人——他說這部分是由於民主黨候選人的談話要點。

“Democrats often talk about abortion and talk about issues that they think are especially salient for women,” Byler said. “At this point, in the last couple of election cycles, Democrats have nominated two women at the top of a major party ticket.”

「民主黨人經常談論墮胎，並談論他們認為對女性特別重要的問題，」拜勒說。 “目前，在過去的幾個選舉週期中，民主黨已經提名了兩名女性作為主要政黨的候選人。”

In contrast, Byler noted that former President Donald Trump and Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance have emphasized a lot of issues important to young and working class men.

相比之下，拜勒指出，前總統唐納德·川普和副總統候選人 JD·萬斯強調了許多對年輕人和工人階級男性重要的問題。

According to the poll, the top issues for Republican voters are illegal immigration, inflation and the economy. The top three issues for Democratic voters are abortion, inflation and climate change, and the top three issues for Independent voters are inflation, illegal immigration and the economy.

民調顯示，共和黨選民最關心的問題是非法移民、通貨膨脹和經濟。民主黨選民最關心的三個議題是墮胎、通貨膨脹和氣候變化，獨立選民最關心的三個議題是通貨膨脹、非法移民和經濟。

Due to redistricting and a number of open seats, there are quite a few closely contested Congressional races, according to The Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Here are some of the races to watch:

據薩巴托政治中心的水晶球稱，由於選區重新劃分和大量空缺席位，國會競選中存在相當多的激烈競爭。以下是一些值得觀看的比賽：

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Republican incumbent David Schweikert will be facing Democratic candidate Amish Shah in the general election. Following redistricting in 2020, Schweikert changed from Arizona’s 6th Congressional District to the 1st. Additionally, after the state approved new legislative maps in 2022, the 1st district shifted from a district that voted for Trump to one that would have voted for President Joe Biden. Furthermore, Schweikert won his last election by an incredibly narrow margin at 50.4% to 49.6%.

亞利桑那州第一國會選區：共和黨現任議員大衛·施韋克特將在大選中面對民主黨候選人阿米甚·沙阿。 2020 年選區重新劃分後，施韋克特從亞利桑那州的第六國會選區變為第一國會選區。此外，在該州於 2022 年批准新的立法地圖後，第一選區從投票給川普的選區轉變為投票給總統喬拜登的選區。此外，施韋克特以 50.4% 對 49.6% 的微弱優勢贏得了上一次選舉。

California’s 13th Congressional District: This district will be seeing a rematch from 2022 where Republican incumbent John Duarte will once again be running against Democrat Adam Gray. Duarte won the 2022 race by only 564 votes, making it the second closest House race in the country that year. Furthermore, CD 13 has typically been a Democratic-led district with Duarte being the first Republican to win the district since 1974.

加州第 13 國會選區：該選區將從 2022 年開始進行重賽，共和黨現任議員約翰·杜阿爾特 (John Duarte) 將再次與民主黨議員亞當·格雷 (Adam Gray) 競選。杜阿爾特僅以 564 票的優勢贏得了 2022 年的眾議院選舉，成為該國當年第二接近的眾議院選舉。此外，CD 13 通常是民主黨領導的選區，杜阿爾特是自 1974 年以來第一個贏得該選區的共和黨人。

California’s 22nd Congressional District: In another rematch from 2022, Republican incumbent David Valado will be going up against Democrat Rudy Salas. Valado won that race by 3%. Valado was also only one of 14 Republicans to win a Congressional district that Biden won in 2020.

加州第 22 國會選區：在 2022 年的另一場重賽中，共和黨現任議員戴維·瓦拉多 (David Valado) 將對陣民主黨議員魯迪·薩拉斯 (Rudy Salas)。瓦拉多 (Valado) 以 3% 的優勢贏得了那場比賽。瓦拉多也是贏得拜登 2020 年贏得的國會選區的 14 名共和黨人之一。

Colorado’s 8th Congressional District: Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo will be running against Republican Gabe Evans and five other candidates. Caraveo won her 2022 election by less than 1%, making it one of the narrowest House races nationwide that year

科羅拉多州第八國會選區：民主黨現任議員亞迪拉·卡拉維奧將與共和黨人加布·埃文斯和其他五名候選人競選。卡拉維奧以不到 1% 的優勢贏得 2022 年大選，成為當年全國範圍最窄的眾議院競選之一