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以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 最近谈到了围绕 Polymarket 及其赌博分类的持续争论。
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently addressed the ongoing debate surrounding Polymarket and its classification as gambling. Buterin’s comments came after some users voiced concerns over the nature of decentralized prediction markets, triggering a conversation about how the community understands these platforms.
以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 最近解决了围绕 Polymarket 及其赌博分类的持续争论。 Buterin 发表此番言论之前,一些用户对去中心化预测市场的性质表示担忧,引发了关于社区如何理解这些平台的讨论。
"gambling/prediction markets like Polymarket"
“像 Polymarket 这样的赌博/预测市场”
Putting Polymarket into the category of "gambling" is a massive misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (incl economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.
将 Polymarket 归入“赌博”类别是对预测市场是什么或人们(包括经济学家和政策知识分子)为何对预测市场感到兴奋的巨大误解。
Prediction markets are interesting…
预测市场很有趣……
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 25, 2024
——vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) 2024 年 8 月 25 日
Buterin explained that prediction markets like Polymarket are often misunderstood. In his view, they serve as a social epistemic tool, allowing the public to gain insights into important events without the influence of editorial bias.
Buterin 解释说,像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场经常被误解。在他看来,它们是一种社会认知工具,使公众能够在不受编辑偏见影响的情况下深入了解重要事件。
Buterin noted that these markets provide a clearer sense of what is likely to happen in a way that surpasses both social media and news outlets. He emphasized that conditional prediction markets are already finding applications in governance.
Buterin 指出,这些市场以超越社交媒体和新闻媒体的方式让人们更清楚地了解可能发生的情况。他强调,条件预测市场已经在治理中找到了应用。
Confusion Over DeFi vs. Prediction Markets
DeFi 与预测市场的混淆
The conversation was prompted by a user known as “strobie reeeee” who suggested that confusion arises from how people perceive decentralized finance (DeFi). The user argued that Buterin’s perceived skepticism toward DeFi could stem from the public’s association of DeFi with unsustainable token issuance schemes from 2021.
这次对话是由一位名为“strobie reeeee”的用户发起的,他认为人们对去中心化金融(DeFi)的看法造成了混乱。该用户认为,Buterin 对 DeFi 的怀疑可能源于公众将 DeFi 与 2021 年以来不可持续的代币发行计划联系起来。
However, the user pointed out that DeFi also encompasses healthier applications like lending, borrowing, and synthetic assets. In response, Buterin acknowledged the concerns but reiterated that he supports decentralized applications that are both useful and sustainable over time, highlighting that prediction markets fall into this category due to their utility in information sharing and decision-making.
不过,该用户指出,DeFi 还包含借贷、借贷和合成资产等更健康的应用。作为回应,Buterin 承认了这些担忧,但重申他支持随着时间的推移既有用又可持续的去中心化应用程序,并强调预测市场由于其在信息共享和决策方面的实用性而属于这一类别。
Surging Adoption of Polymarket
Polymarket 的采用激增
Meanwhile, data shared by Richard Chen indicates that Polymarket has seen a significant uptick in user engagement. The decentralized prediction market platform has reported consistent growth in both trading volume and user accounts. For the past four consecutive months, Polymarket has witnessed a steady rise in monthly trading users, with figures nearing 54,000.
与此同时,Richard Chen 分享的数据表明,Polymarket 的用户参与度显着上升。去中心化预测市场平台的交易量和用户账户均持续增长。过去连续四个月,Polymarket月交易用户数稳步上升,接近5.4万。
Furthermore, the platform’s open interest and trading volumes have also seen a significant spike, crossing $100 million for the first time in its history. Additionally, from mid-2023 onward, there is a significant surge in the number of new Polymarket accounts, with peaks reaching over 60,000 new accounts in recent months of 2024.
此外,该平台的未平仓合约和交易量也大幅飙升,历史上首次突破 1 亿美元。此外,从 2023 年中期开始,Polymarket 新账户数量大幅增加,2024 年近几个月新账户峰值达到 60,000 多个。
Stablecoins, DeFi, and Sustainability
稳定币、DeFi 和可持续发展
Buterin also expressed his views on stablecoins, calling attention to their role in fostering global economic openness. Though he personally prefers decentralized options like RAI, Buterin acknowledged that USDC is more convenient for international transactions, especially for donations.
Buterin 还表达了他对稳定币的看法,呼吁人们关注稳定币在促进全球经济开放方面的作用。虽然他个人更喜欢 RAI 等去中心化选项,但 Buterin 承认 USDC 对于国际交易(尤其是捐赠)来说更方便。
Buterin clarified that while he has reservations about USDC, he sees it as a step towards broader adoption of more decentralized stablecoins.
Buterin 澄清说,虽然他对 USDC 持保留态度,但他认为这是朝着更广泛采用更去中心化的稳定币迈出的一步。
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