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以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 最近談到了圍繞 Polymarket 及其賭博分類的持續爭論。
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently addressed the ongoing debate surrounding Polymarket and its classification as gambling. Buterin’s comments came after some users voiced concerns over the nature of decentralized prediction markets, triggering a conversation about how the community understands these platforms.
以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 最近解決了圍繞 Polymarket 及其賭博分類的持續爭論。 Buterin 在發表這篇言論之前,一些用戶對去中心化預測市場的性質表示擔憂,引發了關於社群如何理解這些平台的討論。
"gambling/prediction markets like Polymarket"
“像 Polymarket 這樣的賭博/預測市場”
Putting Polymarket into the category of "gambling" is a massive misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (incl economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.
將 Polymarket 歸類為「賭博」類別是對預測市場是什麼或人們(包括經濟學家和政策知識分子)為何對預測市場感到興奮的巨大誤解。
Prediction markets are interesting…
預測市場很有趣…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 25, 2024
——vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) 2024 年 8 月 25 日
Buterin explained that prediction markets like Polymarket are often misunderstood. In his view, they serve as a social epistemic tool, allowing the public to gain insights into important events without the influence of editorial bias.
Buterin 解釋說,像 Polymarket 這樣的預測市場經常被誤解。在他看來,它們是一種社會認知工具,使公眾能夠在不受編輯偏見影響的情況下深入了解重要事件。
Buterin noted that these markets provide a clearer sense of what is likely to happen in a way that surpasses both social media and news outlets. He emphasized that conditional prediction markets are already finding applications in governance.
Buterin 指出,這些市場以超越社群媒體和新聞媒體的方式讓人們更清楚地了解可能發生的情況。他強調,條件預測市場已經在治理上找到了應用。
Confusion Over DeFi vs. Prediction Markets
DeFi 與預測市場的混淆
The conversation was prompted by a user known as “strobie reeeee” who suggested that confusion arises from how people perceive decentralized finance (DeFi). The user argued that Buterin’s perceived skepticism toward DeFi could stem from the public’s association of DeFi with unsustainable token issuance schemes from 2021.
這次對話是由一位名為「strobie reeeee」的用戶發起的,他認為人們對去中心化金融(DeFi)的看法造成了混亂。該用戶認為,Buterin 對 DeFi 的懷疑可能源於公眾將 DeFi 與 2021 年以來不可持續的代幣發行計劃聯繫起來。
However, the user pointed out that DeFi also encompasses healthier applications like lending, borrowing, and synthetic assets. In response, Buterin acknowledged the concerns but reiterated that he supports decentralized applications that are both useful and sustainable over time, highlighting that prediction markets fall into this category due to their utility in information sharing and decision-making.
不過,該用戶指出,DeFi 也包含借貸、借貸和合成資產等更健康的應用。作為回應,Buterin 承認了這些擔憂,但重申他支持隨著時間的推移既有用又可持續的去中心化應用程序,並強調預測市場由於其在資訊共享和決策方面的實用性而屬於這一類別。
Surging Adoption of Polymarket
Polymarket 的採用激增
Meanwhile, data shared by Richard Chen indicates that Polymarket has seen a significant uptick in user engagement. The decentralized prediction market platform has reported consistent growth in both trading volume and user accounts. For the past four consecutive months, Polymarket has witnessed a steady rise in monthly trading users, with figures nearing 54,000.
同時,Richard Chen 分享的數據表明,Polymarket 的用戶參與度顯著上升。去中心化預測市場平台的交易量和用戶帳戶均持續成長。過去連續四個月,Polymarket月交易用戶數穩定上升,接近5.4萬人。
Furthermore, the platform’s open interest and trading volumes have also seen a significant spike, crossing $100 million for the first time in its history. Additionally, from mid-2023 onward, there is a significant surge in the number of new Polymarket accounts, with peaks reaching over 60,000 new accounts in recent months of 2024.
此外,該平台的未平倉合約和交易量也大幅飆升,史上首次突破 1 億美元。此外,從 2023 年中期開始,Polymarket 新帳戶數量大幅增加,2024 年近幾個月新帳戶高峰達到 60,000 多個。
Stablecoins, DeFi, and Sustainability
穩定幣、DeFi 和永續發展
Buterin also expressed his views on stablecoins, calling attention to their role in fostering global economic openness. Though he personally prefers decentralized options like RAI, Buterin acknowledged that USDC is more convenient for international transactions, especially for donations.
Buterin 也表達了他對穩定幣的看法,呼籲人們關注穩定幣在促進全球經濟開放方面的作用。雖然他個人更喜歡 RAI 等去中心化選項,但 Buterin 承認 USDC 對於國際交易(尤其是捐贈)來說更方便。
Buterin clarified that while he has reservations about USDC, he sees it as a step towards broader adoption of more decentralized stablecoins.
Buterin 澄清說,雖然他對 USDC 持保留態度,但他認為這是朝著更廣泛採用更去中心化的穩定幣邁出的一步。
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