资深交易员彼得·布兰特警告比特币爱好者注意多种风险，包括过度杠杆化和不切实际的期望

以其近5年市场经验而闻名的资深交易员彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）向比特币爱好者和参与者发出了警告信息。

Seasoned trader Peter Brandt, with nearly five decades of market experience under his belt, has issued a warning to Bitcoin enthusiasts and participants. As Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, he has cautioned traders against several risks.

拥有近五十年市场经验的经验丰富的交易员彼得·勃兰特（Peter Brandt）向比特币爱好者和参与者发出了警告。随着比特币价格持续上涨，他警告交易者注意多种风险。

These risks include overleveraging, failing to prepare for downturns, and harboring unrealistic expectations. He cautions that without proper risk management, many could face devastating losses in case of a significant market correction.

这些风险包括过度杠杆化、未能为经济低迷做好准备以及抱有不切实际的期望。他警告说，如果没有适当的风险管理，如果市场出现重大调整，许多人可能会面临毁灭性的损失。

Brandt’s advice comes as Bitcoin’s price dynamics remain both thrilling and dangerous. Over the past few months, Bitcoin price has pleased investors like Michael Saylor and many by soaring past the psychological $100,000 milestone in early December. In early December, it reached a record high of over $108,000.

布兰特提出建议之际，比特币的价格动态仍然既令人兴奋又危险。在过去的几个月里，比特币价格在 12 月初飙升至 10 万美元的心理里程碑，令 Michael Saylor 等投资者和许多人感到高兴。 12月初，它达到了超过108,000美元的历史新高。

However, by year-end, a pullback drove Bitcoin price value below $92,000, sparking concerns among market participants. Yet, the bulls regained control as the new year began. Bitcoin was trading at $101,500 at the time of writing.

然而，到年底，比特币价格回落，跌破 92,000 美元，引发市场参与者的担忧。然而，随着新年的开始，多头重新获得了控制权。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 101,500 美元。

Despite this resurgence, Peter Brandt remains wary of overconfidence in the market. He further highlights that Bitcoin’s price history shows sharp corrections and volatility that caught unprepared traders off guard.

尽管复苏，彼得·勃兰特仍然对市场过度自信保持警惕。他进一步强调，比特币的价格历史显示出剧烈的调整和波动，让毫无准备的交易者措手不及。

While the market’s current sentiment leans bullish, Brandt believes a major crash could be lurking on the horizon. Continue to read on to learn why Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin price could fall.

尽管市场目前的情绪偏向看涨，但布兰特认为，一场重大崩盘可能即将来临。继续阅读以了解为什么 Peter Brandt 认为比特币价格可能会下跌。

Why Peter Brandt Is Warning About A Sharp Fall

为什么彼得·勃兰特警告经济急剧下滑

In his latest post on X, Peter Brandt reflected on Bitcoin’s extraordinary journey, tracing its ascent from a mere $0.07 in 2010 to nearly $100,000 in 2025. When calculating these gains, it becomes approximately a staggering 1.4-million-fold increase.

Peter Brandt 在 X 上的最新帖子中回顾了比特币的非凡历程，追踪其从 2010 年的区区 0.07 美元上涨到 2025 年的近 10 万美元。计算这些收益时，其涨幅约为惊人的 140 万倍。

While this growth is undeniably historic, Brandt issued a sobering reality check. With Bitcoin’s market capitalization now exceeding $2 Trillion, he expressed skepticism about the lesser-than-none possibility of replicating such exponential gains in the future.

虽然这种增长无可否认是历史性的，但布兰特发出了发人深省的现实检验。随着比特币的市值现已超过 2 万亿美元，他对未来复制这种指数级增长的可能性表示怀疑。

Peter Brandt further said that while Bitcoin’s price trajectory was remarkable, traders must remain mindful of potential market corrections. He suggested that a 50% drop in Bitcoin’s value is likely, which would see its price retreat to around $50,000.

Peter Brandt 进一步表示，虽然比特币的价格轨迹引人注目，但交易者必须时刻警惕潜在的市场调整。他表示，比特币的价值可能会下跌 50%，这将导致其价格回落至 50,000 美元左右。

Similarly, adding more to his pessimism, he also warned that altcoins and meme tokens could fare even worse during a downturn. He said that these other assets could potentially lose 90% of their value or more.

同样，他还警告说，在经济低迷时期，山寨币和模因代币的表现可能会更糟，这进一步加剧了他的悲观情绪。他表示，这些其他资产的价值可能会损失 90% 或更多。

However, despite his warnings, Peter Brandt clarified that he still choose to remain a Bitcoin holder and a supporter of other assets like Solana. Drawing from his decades of experience, he reminded traders that the market’s ups and downs are inevitable. Conseuqently, he urged that investors should prepare for significant dips, even amid Bitcoin’s price long-term success.

然而，尽管发出警告，Peter Brandt 澄清说，他仍然选择保留比特币持有者和 Solana 等其他资产的支持者。凭借数十年的经验，他提醒交易者，市场的涨跌是不可避免的。因此，他敦促投资者即使在比特币价格长期成功的情况下也应该为大幅下跌做好准备。

Bitcoin USD’s Diminishing Returns Requires Discipline To Handle Market Volatility

比特币美元收益递减需要纪律来应对市场波动

Brandt, known for his sharp eye for market trends, has consistently highlighted the pattern of diminishing returns in Bitcoin’s price bull cycles. While BTC’s past gains have been great, he feels that many younger investors are too hopeful for BTC’s future potential.

布兰特以对市场趋势的敏锐洞察力而闻名，他一直强调比特币价格牛市周期中收益递减的模式。虽然 BTC 过去的涨幅很大，但他认为许多年轻投资者对 BTC 的未来潜力过于乐观。

This optimism of younger investors, he suggests, could lead to unrealistic expectations. Unrealistic expectations could be harmful due to their unpreparedness for the inevitable market corrections times. He also said that in the next 5 to 10 years, it seems very likely that some stocks could outperform BTC gains.

他认为，年轻投资者的这种乐观情绪可能会导致不切实际的期望。不切实际的预期可能是有害的，因为他们没有为不可避免的市场调整做好准备。他还表示，在未来 5 到 10 年里，一些股票的涨幅似乎很可能超过 BTC。

However, Brandt’s outlook isn’t all cautious. He also pointed out some promising indicators too that underline Bitcoin’s mid-term bullish potential.

然而，布兰特的前景并不完全谨慎。他还指出了一些有希望的指标，强调了比特币的中期看涨潜力。

One notable milestone he highlighted recently was Bitcoin’s price performance relative to gold. In December 2024, Bitcoin reached an all-time high price in terms of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This signals its growing strength as a store of value.

他最近强调的一个值得注意的里程碑是比特币相对于黄金的价格表现。 2024 年 12 月，比特币与黄金的比率达到历史最高价格。这标志着其作为价值储存手段的实力不断增强。

Looking ahead, Peter Brandt predicted that if gold prices remain steady without significant revaluation, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio could climb as high as 89:1. Such a scenario could propel Bitcoin to an new all-time high.

展望未来，Peter Brandt 预测，如果金价保持稳定且不大幅升值，比特币/黄金比率可能攀升至 89:1。这种情况可能会推动比特币创下历史新高。

Furthermore, Peter Brandt’s major concerns lie in the risks tied to speculative markets and over-leveraging. According to Brandt, the widespread use of leverage multi-folds potential losses, making investors particularly vulnerable during corrections. A sharp market crash could leave many portfolios in ruin.

此外，彼得·勃兰特主要担心的是与投机市场和过度杠杆化相关的风险。布兰特表示，杠杆的广泛使用使潜在损失成倍增加，使投资者在调整期间特别容易受到伤害。急剧的市场崩盘可能会导致许多投资组合破产。

Brandt urged traders to exercise caution, particularly during periods of optimism, and to brace for the possibility of steep declines in Bitcoin’s price. A disciplined approach, he argued, can mitigate the impact of corrections, especially given Bitcoin’s speculative nature.

布兰特敦促交易者保持谨慎，尤其是在乐观时期，并为比特币价格可能大幅下跌做好准备。他认为，严格的方法可以减轻修正的影响，特别是考虑到比特币的投机性质。

While he maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s mid-term future, he also cautioned against reckless expectations of exponential growth. Moreover, he reminded investors that the cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise in the past is no guarantee of a similar

虽然他对比特币的中期未来保持看涨前景，但他也警告不要鲁莽地期望指数级增长。此外，他提醒投资者，加密货币过去的迅速崛起并不能保证类似的情况