资深分析师利用链上信号揭示精明的比特币交易策略

基于两个关键的链上指标：净未实现损失（NUL）和净未实现利润（NUP），出现了一种新颖的比特币交易策略。这些指标跟踪比特币投资者未实现的收益和损失，提供对其成本基础和买卖机会潜力的洞察。从历史上看，NUL 在熊市低点期间飙升至 0.5 以上，而 NUP 在牛市高峰期间则突破 0.7。目前，NUL 接近于零，表明未实现损失较低，而 NUP 低于 0.7，表明抛售可能不会迫在眉睫。然而，这些模式的有效性仍有待在当前的比特币交易周期中得到检验。

Veteran Analyst Unveils Insightful Bitcoin Trading Strategy Based on On-Chain Indicators

A seasoned financial analyst has shed light on a promising trading tactic for Bitcoin, utilizing historical patterns identified by two key on-chain indicators of the foremost digital currency.

一位经验丰富的金融分析师利用最重要的数字货币的两个关键链上指标确定的历史模式，揭示了一种有前景的比特币交易策略。

This novel strategy draws upon insights gleaned from the Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP), two pivotal metrics that track the accumulation of unrealized gains and losses experienced by Bitcoin investors. These indicators meticulously analyze the transaction history of every Bitcoin in circulation, pinpointing the last price at which it was traded, which, in turn, establishes its current cost basis.

这种新颖的策略借鉴了从净未实现损失（NUL）和净未实现利润（NUP）中收集的见解，这两个关键指标跟踪比特币投资者经历的未实现收益和损失的累积。这些指标仔细分析了流通中的每个比特币的交易历史，确定了其最后的交易价格，从而确定了其当前的成本基础。

The underlying premise of this approach hinges on the assumption that the most recent transaction for any given Bitcoin serves as an indicator of its last change of ownership. The price prevailing at that moment solidifies the Bitcoin's current cost basis. Consequently, if a coin's previous transaction occurred at a price lower than the current market price, that coin is currently realizing a profit. The NUP quantifies this potential gain by subtracting the previous transaction price from the present market price.

这种方法的基本前提取决于这样的假设：任何给定比特币的最近交易都可以作为其最后一次所有权变更的指标。当时的价格巩固了比特币当前的成本基础。因此，如果某种代币之前的交易价格低于当前市场价格，则该代币当前正在实现利润。 NUP 通过从当前市场价格中减去之前的交易价格来量化这种潜在收益。

The NUL operates on a similar principle, monitoring coins whose cost basis exceeds their most recent valuation. To ascertain these parameters for the entirety of Bitcoin's supply, these indicators aggregate the various values and divide them by the current market capitalization.

NUL 遵循类似的原则，监控成本基础超过其最新估值的代币。为了确定整个比特币供应的这些参数，这些指标汇总了各种价值并将其除以当前市值。

To illustrate the practical application of this strategy, the analyst presented an informative graph highlighting a recurring pattern in the behavior of the Bitcoin NUL. Historically, the NUL has ascended above the 0.5 threshold when Bitcoin prices have fluctuated near bear market lows. Currently, the metric is hovering close to zero, signifying minimal unrealized loss held by Bitcoin investors. This aligns with Bitcoin's trajectory, reaching record highs as investors' Bitcoin holdings move into a profitable zone.

为了说明该策略的实际应用，分析师提供了一张信息图表，突出显示了比特币 NUL 行为中的重复模式。从历史上看，当比特币价格在熊市低点附近波动时，NUL 就会升至 0.5 阈值以上。目前，该指标徘徊在接近于零的水平，这意味着比特币投资者持有的未实现损失极小。这与比特币的轨迹一致，随着投资者持有的比特币进入盈利区域，比特币达到历史新高。

The NUP indicator also mirrors a similar pattern, having traditionally risen above the 0.7 mark during notable market peaks, suggesting a potential sell-off opportunity when the metric breaches this zone. However, the indicator has not yet surpassed the critical 0.7 threshold despite Bitcoin's recent rally, indicating that the market is not yet poised for selling according to this strategy.

NUP 指标也反映了类似的模式，传统上在显着的市场高峰期间升至 0.7 大关之上，这表明当该指标突破该区域时存在潜在的抛售机会。然而，尽管比特币最近上涨，但该指标尚未超过关键的 0.7 阈值，这表明市场尚未准备好根据这一策略进行抛售。

A meticulous examination of the two indicators reveals that neither precisely pinpoints the asset's peaks or troughs. This is particularly evident in the NUP data, where the 'sell' signal surfaced midway through the bull run. Nonetheless, executing purchases when the NUL signals and selling during heightened NUP values would have ultimately yielded profits. Hence, this emerging strategy holds considerable promise for Bitcoin trading.

对这两个指标的仔细检查表明，它们都不能准确指出资产的波峰或波谷。这在 NUP 数据中尤其明显，其中“卖出”信号在牛市中途出现。尽管如此，在 NUL 发出信号时执行买入并在 NUP 值升高时卖出最终会产生利润。因此，这种新兴策略为比特币交易带来了巨大的希望。

However, the true test of its effectiveness lies in determining whether these patterns can maintain their predictive power in the current Bitcoin trading cycle. As of this moment, Bitcoin oscillates around $69,400, marking a 2% dip over the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term fluctuation, the asset's value appears to be largely stable, exhibiting a sideways trend for the time being.

然而，对其有效性的真正考验在于确定这些模式是否能够在当前的比特币交易周期中保持其预测能力。截至目前，比特币在 69,400 美元附近波动，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 2%。尽管存在短期波动，但该资产的价值似乎基本稳定，暂时呈现横盘趋势。

While this strategy offers a compelling approach for Bitcoin trading, it is crucial to recognize that market dynamics are inherently unpredictable. Consequently, it is essential for investors to conduct thorough research, consider their risk tolerance, and exercise sound judgment before making any trading decisions.

虽然这种策略为比特币交易提供了一种引人注目的方法，但至关重要的是要认识到市场动态本质上是不可预测的。因此，投资者在做出任何交易决定之前进行彻底的研究、考虑自己的风险承受能力并做出明智的判断至关重要。