資深分析師利用鏈上訊號揭示精明的比特幣交易策略

基於兩個關鍵的鏈上指標：淨未實現損失（NUL）和淨未實現利潤（NUP），出現了一種新穎的比特幣交易策略。這些指標追蹤比特幣投資者未實現的收益和損失，提供對其成本基礎和買賣機會潛力的洞察。從歷史上看，NUL 在熊市低點期間飆升至 0.5 以上，而 NUP 在牛市高峰期間則突破 0.7。目前，NUL 接近零，表示未實現損失較低，而 NUP 低於 0.7，表明拋售可能不會迫在眉睫。然而，這些模式的有效性仍有待在目前的比特幣交易週期中來檢驗。

Veteran Analyst Unveils Insightful Bitcoin Trading Strategy Based on On-Chain Indicators

資深分析師推出基於鏈上指標的富有洞察力的比特幣交易策略

A seasoned financial analyst has shed light on a promising trading tactic for Bitcoin, utilizing historical patterns identified by two key on-chain indicators of the foremost digital currency.

一位經驗豐富的金融分析師利用最重要的數位貨幣的兩個關鍵鏈上指標確定的歷史模式，揭示了一種有前景的比特幣交易策略。

This novel strategy draws upon insights gleaned from the Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP), two pivotal metrics that track the accumulation of unrealized gains and losses experienced by Bitcoin investors. These indicators meticulously analyze the transaction history of every Bitcoin in circulation, pinpointing the last price at which it was traded, which, in turn, establishes its current cost basis.

這種新穎的策略借鑒了從淨未實現損失（NUL）和淨未實現利潤（NUP）中收集的見解，這兩個關鍵指標追蹤比特幣投資者經歷的未實現收益和損失的累積。這些指標仔細分析了流通中的每個比特幣的交易歷史，確定了其最後的交易價格，從而確定了其當前的成本基礎。

The underlying premise of this approach hinges on the assumption that the most recent transaction for any given Bitcoin serves as an indicator of its last change of ownership. The price prevailing at that moment solidifies the Bitcoin's current cost basis. Consequently, if a coin's previous transaction occurred at a price lower than the current market price, that coin is currently realizing a profit. The NUP quantifies this potential gain by subtracting the previous transaction price from the present market price.

這種方法的基本前提取決於這樣的假設：任何給定比特幣的最近交易都可以作為其最後一次所有權變更的指標。當時的價格鞏固了比特幣當前的成本基礎。因此，如果某種代幣之前的交易價格低於當前市場價格，則該代幣目前正在實現利潤。 NUP 透過從當前市場價格中減去先前的交易價格來量化這種潛在收益。

The NUL operates on a similar principle, monitoring coins whose cost basis exceeds their most recent valuation. To ascertain these parameters for the entirety of Bitcoin's supply, these indicators aggregate the various values and divide them by the current market capitalization.

NUL 遵循類似的原則，監控成本基礎超過其最新估值的代幣。為了確定整個比特幣供應的這些參數，這些指標匯總了各種價值並將其除以當前市值。

To illustrate the practical application of this strategy, the analyst presented an informative graph highlighting a recurring pattern in the behavior of the Bitcoin NUL. Historically, the NUL has ascended above the 0.5 threshold when Bitcoin prices have fluctuated near bear market lows. Currently, the metric is hovering close to zero, signifying minimal unrealized loss held by Bitcoin investors. This aligns with Bitcoin's trajectory, reaching record highs as investors' Bitcoin holdings move into a profitable zone.

為了說明該策略的實際應用，分析師提供了一張資訊圖表，突顯了比特幣 NUL 行為中的重複模式。從歷史上看，當比特幣價格在熊市低點附近波動時，NUL 就會升至 0.5 門檻以上。目前，該指標徘徊在接近零的水平，這意味著比特幣投資者持有的未實現損失極小。這與比特幣的軌跡一致，隨著投資者持有的比特幣進入獲利區域，比特幣達到歷史新高。

The NUP indicator also mirrors a similar pattern, having traditionally risen above the 0.7 mark during notable market peaks, suggesting a potential sell-off opportunity when the metric breaches this zone. However, the indicator has not yet surpassed the critical 0.7 threshold despite Bitcoin's recent rally, indicating that the market is not yet poised for selling according to this strategy.

NUP 指標也反映了類似的模式，傳統上在顯著的市場高峰期間升至 0.7 大關之上，這表明當該指標突破該區域時存在潛在的拋售機會。然而，儘管比特幣最近上漲，但該指標尚未超過關鍵的 0.7 閾值，這表明市場尚未準備好根據此策略進行拋售。

A meticulous examination of the two indicators reveals that neither precisely pinpoints the asset's peaks or troughs. This is particularly evident in the NUP data, where the 'sell' signal surfaced midway through the bull run. Nonetheless, executing purchases when the NUL signals and selling during heightened NUP values would have ultimately yielded profits. Hence, this emerging strategy holds considerable promise for Bitcoin trading.

對這兩個指標的仔細檢查表明，它們都不能準確指出資產的波峰或波谷。這在 NUP 數據中尤其明顯，其中「賣出」訊號在牛市中途出現。儘管如此，在 NUL 發出信號時執行買入並在 NUP 值升高時賣出最終會產生利潤。因此，這種新興策略為比特幣交易帶來了巨大的希望。

However, the true test of its effectiveness lies in determining whether these patterns can maintain their predictive power in the current Bitcoin trading cycle. As of this moment, Bitcoin oscillates around $69,400, marking a 2% dip over the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term fluctuation, the asset's value appears to be largely stable, exhibiting a sideways trend for the time being.

然而，對其有效性的真正考驗在於確定這些模式是否能夠在當前的比特幣交易週期中保持其預測能力。截至目前，比特幣在 69,400 美元附近波動，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 2%。儘管有短期波動，但資產的價值似乎基本上穩定，暫時呈現橫盤趨勢。

While this strategy offers a compelling approach for Bitcoin trading, it is crucial to recognize that market dynamics are inherently unpredictable. Consequently, it is essential for investors to conduct thorough research, consider their risk tolerance, and exercise sound judgment before making any trading decisions.

雖然這種策略為比特幣交易提供了一種引人注目的方法，但至關重要的是要認識到市場動態本質上是不可預測的。因此，投資者在做出任何交易決定之前進行徹底的研究、考慮自己的風險承受能力並做出明智的判斷至關重要。