Vaneck预测，比特币将在管理美国的国债上涨方面发挥关键作用

这项研究基于参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出的比特币法案，表明，战略性比特币储备可能会在2049年之前部分平衡该国的债务。

VanEck has proposed a novel concept that could revolutionize the discourse surrounding national debt management. The study proposes that Bitcoin could play a pivotal role in offsetting a portion of the United States' rising national debt. This concept, while intriguing, raises several questions regarding its feasibility.

Vaneck提出了一个新颖的概念，可以改变围绕国家债务管理的话语。该研究提出，比特币可以在抵消美国国家债务上升的一部分中发挥关键作用。这个概念虽然有趣，但却引发了有关其可行性的几个问题。

The study examines a scenario where the US government acquires a substantial amount of Bitcoin, up to 1 million BTC, over a five-year period. If this strategy were to materialize, VanEck's analysis suggests that such a reserve could potentially help offset nearly $21 trillion in national debt by 2049.

该研究研究了一种场景，美国政府在五年内获得了大量比特币，最高100万BTC。如果该策略要实现，Vaneck的分析表明，这样的储备有可能有助于到2049年抵消近21万亿美元的国家债务。

In the context of debt growth, which is anticipated to be around 5% annually, this contribution would amount to approximately 18% of the total expected debt at that time.

在预计每年约5％的债务增长的背景下，这一贡献约为当时预期债务总债务的18％。

However, this positive outlook is contingent on the sustained appreciation of Bitcoin's price. VanEck's model projects that BTC will experience a 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) on average over the next two decades.

但是，这种积极的前景取决于对比特币价格的持续欣赏。 Vaneck的模型预测，BTC将在未来二十年中平均经历25％的复合年增长率（CAGR）。

Starting with an estimated acquisition price of $100,000 per unit in 225, the crypto would need to experience continuous price increases over the next two decades to achieve the desired impact on national debt.

从估计的225估计收购价为每单位100,000美元开始，加密货币将需要在未来二十年内经历连续价格上涨，以实现对国家债务的预期影响。

The study highlights the importance of considering the rate of debt growth, which is expected to be 5% annually. Any effort to offset the predicted $100 trillion national debt by 2049 will require identifying assets with substantial appreciation potential.

该研究强调了考虑债务增长率的重要性，预计每年将为5％。到2049年，任何抵消预计100万亿美元的国债的努力都将需要确定具有巨大赞赏潜力的资产。

While presenting both a challenge and an opportunity, Bitcoin's volatility in this context is undeniable. An ambitious target of 25% CAGR is proposed, considering the crypto's past price movements, regulatory uncertainties, and varying industry acceptance patterns.

在提出挑战和机会的同时，在这种情况下，比特币的波动是不可否认的。考虑到加密货币过去的价格变动，监管不确定性以及不同行业接受模式，提出了一个雄心勃勃的CAGR目标。

Should the crypto's expansion slow down, the reserve might not meet expectations, ultimately reducing its effectiveness in addressing national debt.

如果加密货币的扩张放缓，则储备金可能无法满足期望，最终降低了其在解决国家债务方面的有效性。

VanEck's perspective aligns with a broader discourse regarding the role of the leading digital currency in national economies. Countries like El Salvador have already integrated the top coin into their financial plans, albeit on a smaller scale.

Vaneck的观点与有关领先数字货币在国民经济中的作用的更广泛论述相吻合。萨尔瓦多（El Salvador）等国家已经将顶级硬币纳入其财务计划，尽管规模较小。

If the US were to adopt a similar strategy, it would signify an unprecedented shift in monetary policy, considering the scale of the US economy and its global influence.

如果美国要采取类似的战略，则考虑到美国经济规模及其全球影响力的规模，这将表示货币政策的前所未有的转变。

The practicality of amassing such a large Bitcoin reserve raises further questions. Would the government purchase the crypto asset gradually or in bulk? How would it safeguard and govern such an asset? These practical considerations add complexity to VanEck's vision.

积累如此大的比特币储备的实用性提出了进一步的问题。政府会逐渐或批量购买加密资产吗？它将如何保护和管理这样的资产？这些实际的考虑因素增加了Vaneck的愿景。

Despite these challenges, VanEck's research presents an intriguing possibility. The potential of BTC as a long-term wealth reserve is still a topic of debate among economists and policymakers.

尽管面临这些挑战，但Vaneck的研究却是一种有趣的可能性。 BTC作为长期财富储备的潜力仍然是经济学家和政策制定者之间辩论的话题。

If the crypto's value continues to increase substantially over the long term, perhaps it could be feasible to eventually employ the digital asset to mitigate a portion of national debt, offering a unique solution to a pressing economic challenge.

如果从长远来看，加密货币的价值继续大幅提高，那么最终使用数字资产来减轻部分国家债务，为紧迫的经济挑战提供了独特的解决方案，这可能是可行的。

For now, the feasibility of this strategy remains uncertain. The US government has yet to indicate any concrete plans to acquire the alpha crypto on a large scale. But with national debt rising and Bitcoin's influence growing, discussions around this unconventional solution are far from over.

目前，此策略的可行性仍然不确定。美国政府尚未指出任何具体计划，以大规模获取Alpha Crypto。但是，随着国债的上升和比特币的影响力的增长，有关这种非常规解决方案的讨论还远远没有结束。