美国可以通过创建比特币储备来大幅减少其国债吗？

资产管理公司 VanEck 最近的一份报告表明，美国可以通过创建比特币储备来大幅减少其国家债务。

A recent report by asset management firm VanEck has proposed a novel solution to help the United States reduce its national debt: creating a Bitcoin reserve. According to the report, if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoin, it could offset approximately 35% of the national debt by 2049.

资产管理公司 VanEck 最近的一份报告提出了一种帮助美国减少国债的新颖解决方案：建立比特币储备。报告称，如果美国建立100万比特币储备，到2049年可以抵消约35%的国债。

This proposal aligns with a bill introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which aims to leverage the growth of Bitcoin to address the country's mounting financial liabilities. Here's a closer look at the proposal, its potential impact, and some of the challenges involved.

该提案与参议员 Cynthia Lummis 提出的一项法案相一致，该法案旨在利用比特币的增长来解决该国日益增加的金融负债。以下是对该提案、其潜在影响以及所涉及的一些挑战的详细了解。

Projected Growth and Impact

预计增长和影响

VanEck's analysis assumes that Bitcoin will experience a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, reaching a value of $42.3 million per Bitcoin by 2049. In contrast, the U.S. national debt is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the start of 2025 to $119.3 trillion over the same period.

VanEck 的分析假设比特币的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 25%，到 2049 年每个比特币的价值将达到 4230 万美元。相比之下，美国国债预计将以 5% 的复合年增长率增长，从2025 年初为 37 万亿美元，同期为 119.3 万亿美元。

If these projections hold, the Bitcoin reserve could represent an estimated 35% of the national debt, offsetting around $42 trillion of liabilities.

如果这些预测成立，比特币储备可能占国家债务的 35%，抵消约 42 万亿美元的债务。

"This analysis demonstrates the potential scale and impact of Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset," said Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, investment analyst, in a statement accompanying the report.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管马修·西格尔 (Matthew Sigel) 和投资分析师内森·弗兰科维茨 (Nathan Frankovitz) 在报告随附的一份声明中表示：“这项分析表明了采用比特币作为储备资产的潜在规模和影响。”

"The adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional and corporate levels will support the projected growth rates. Bitcoin's growth is further supported by its sound monetary policy and network effects."

“比特币在国家、机构和企业层面的采用将支持预计的增长率。比特币的增长得到了其健全的货币政策和网络效应的进一步支持。”

Strategic Implementation

战略实施

The proposed strategy involves utilizing the 198,100 Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government from asset seizures and acquiring an additional 801,900 Bitcoin. This acquisition could be financed through Emergency Support Functions, selling a portion of the U.S. gold reserves valued at $455 billion, or combining both methods. Importantly, this approach would not require money printing or taxpayer funds.

拟议的策略包括利用美国政府从资产扣押中已持有的 198,100 个比特币，并另外购买 801,900 个比特币。此次收购可以通过紧急支持职能、出售部分价值 4550 亿美元的美国黄金储备或结合两种方式来筹集资金。重要的是，这种方法不需要印钞或纳税人的资金。

Potential Benefits and Challenges

潜在的好处和挑战

Adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset could bring several benefits, including increased financial stability and a hedge against fiscal unsustainability and geopolitical uncertainty. However, the proposal also faces challenges.

采用比特币作为储备资产可以带来多种好处，包括提高金融稳定性以及对冲财政不可持续性和地缘政治不确定性。然而，该提案也面临挑战。

The bill introduced by Senator Lummis has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House, and the implementation of such a strategy would require careful consideration of market dynamics and regulatory implications. Additionally, the success of this approach hinges on Bitcoin's continued growth and acceptance as a global financial asset.

卢米斯参议员提出的法案尚未经过参议院或众议院的审查，实施这一策略需要仔细考虑市场动态和监管影响。此外，这种方法的成功取决于比特币作为全球金融资产的持续增长和接受度。