美國可以透過創建比特幣儲備來大幅減少其國債嗎？

資產管理公司 VanEck 最近的一份報告表明，美國可以透過建立比特幣儲備來大幅減少其國家債務。

A recent report by asset management firm VanEck has proposed a novel solution to help the United States reduce its national debt: creating a Bitcoin reserve. According to the report, if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoin, it could offset approximately 35% of the national debt by 2049.

資產管理公司 VanEck 最近的一份報告提出了一種幫助美國減少國債的新穎解決方案：創建比特幣儲備。報告稱，如果美國建立100萬比特幣儲備，2049年可以抵銷約35%的國債。

This proposal aligns with a bill introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which aims to leverage the growth of Bitcoin to address the country's mounting financial liabilities. Here's a closer look at the proposal, its potential impact, and some of the challenges involved.

該提案與參議員 Cynthia Lummis 提出的一項法案一致，該法案旨在利用比特幣的增長來解決該國日益增加的金融負債。以下是對該提案、其潛在影響以及所涉及的一些挑戰的詳細了解。

Projected Growth and Impact

預計成長和影響

VanEck's analysis assumes that Bitcoin will experience a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, reaching a value of $42.3 million per Bitcoin by 2049. In contrast, the U.S. national debt is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the start of 2025 to $119.3 trillion over the same period.

VanEck 的分析假設比特幣的複合年增長率(CAGR) 為25%，到2049 年每個比特幣的價值將達到4,230 萬美元。成長，從2025 年初為 37 兆美元，同期為 119.3 兆美元。

If these projections hold, the Bitcoin reserve could represent an estimated 35% of the national debt, offsetting around $42 trillion of liabilities.

如果這些預測成立，比特幣儲備可能佔國家債務的 35%，抵消約 42 兆美元的債務。

"This analysis demonstrates the potential scale and impact of Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset," said Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, investment analyst, in a statement accompanying the report.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和投資分析師 Nathan Frankovitz 在報告隨附的聲明中表示：“這項分析表明了採用比特幣作為儲備資產的潛在規模和影響。”

"The adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional and corporate levels will support the projected growth rates. Bitcoin's growth is further supported by its sound monetary policy and network effects."

「比特幣在國家、機構和企業層面的採用將支持預計的成長率。比特幣的成長得到了其健全的貨幣政策和網路效應的進一步支持。”

Strategic Implementation

戰略實施

The proposed strategy involves utilizing the 198,100 Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government from asset seizures and acquiring an additional 801,900 Bitcoin. This acquisition could be financed through Emergency Support Functions, selling a portion of the U.S. gold reserves valued at $455 billion, or combining both methods. Importantly, this approach would not require money printing or taxpayer funds.

擬議的策略包括利用美國政府從資產扣押中已持有的 198,100 個比特幣，並另外購買 801,900 個比特幣。此次收購可以透過緊急支援職能、出售部分價值 4,550 億美元的美國黃金儲備或結合兩種方式來籌集資金。重要的是，這種方法不需要印鈔或納稅人的資金。

Potential Benefits and Challenges

潛在的好處和挑戰

Adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset could bring several benefits, including increased financial stability and a hedge against fiscal unsustainability and geopolitical uncertainty. However, the proposal also faces challenges.

採用比特幣作為儲備資產可以帶來多種好處，包括提高金融穩定性以及對沖財政不可持續性和地緣政治不確定性。然而，該提案也面臨挑戰。

The bill introduced by Senator Lummis has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House, and the implementation of such a strategy would require careful consideration of market dynamics and regulatory implications. Additionally, the success of this approach hinges on Bitcoin's continued growth and acceptance as a global financial asset.

盧米斯參議員提出的法案尚未經過參議院或眾議院的審查，實施此策略需要仔細考慮市場動態和監管影響。此外，這種方法的成功取決於比特幣作為全球金融資產的持續成長和接受度。