3 种值得忽略的加密货币讨论

如今，似乎每个人都对比特币（BTC 1.41%）Solana（SOL 10.16%）和以太坊（ETH 2.20%）等主要加密货币有自己的看法。

As everyone seems to have an opinion on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum these days, it can be difficult to know what to pay attention to. Especially if you're not directly involved in the cryptocurrency sector, orienting yourself correctly and keeping your focus on the factors that actually matter can be quite challenging.

如今，每个人似乎都对比特币、Solana 和以太坊等主要加密货币有自己的看法，因此很难知道应该关注什么。特别是如果您没有直接参与加密货币领域，那么正确定位自己并将注意力集中在真正重要的因素上可能会非常具有挑战性。

So let's take a look at three types of chatter that are worth ignoring rather than engaging with as part of your investing process.

因此，让我们看一下在投资过程中值得忽略而不是参与的三种类型的闲聊。

1. Pay No Mind to Major Sales by Governments, Companies, or Individuals

1. 不要在意政府、公司或个人的重大销售

It's reasonable for people to pay attention when a major global player, like a government, decides to exit its holdings of a cryptocurrency. Such players often command vast sums of assets, and it's obvious that selling off those assets all at once will have a detrimental impact on the market value of the associated coins.

当政府等全球主要参与者决定退出其所持有的加密货币时，人们的关注是合理的。这些玩家通常拥有大量资产，很明显，一次性出售这些资产将对相关代币的市场价值产生不利影响。

Take, for example, Germany's decision to sell $3 billion worth of Bitcoin it came into possession of via asset seizures in June 2024. Aside from being the talk of the cryptocurrency town square for at least a few weeks, it also may have put a serious dent in the king cryptocurrency's pricing, at least for a while. A prospective sale by the U.S. government of roughly $6.4 billion in Bitcoin that could occur this year could easily have a similar or even greater detrimental impact.

例如，德国决定出售其在 2024 年 6 月通过资产扣押获得的价值 30 亿美元的比特币。这除了成为至少几周加密货币城镇广场的话题之外，还可能给该国带来了严重的影响。至少在一段时间内，这会削弱加密货币的定价。美国政府预计今年可能出售价值约 64 亿美元的比特币，很容易产生类似甚至更大的有害影响。

Sales by whales in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are rarely on the same scale as those by governments, but they still make headlines. Individual large holders selling a mere $33 million in mid-January of this year are gathering attention, even if the price impact isn't as significant as with Bitcoin.

鲸鱼对以太坊等其他加密货币的销售很少与政府的销售规模相同，但它们仍然成为头条新闻。尽管价格影响不如比特币那么大，但今年 1 月中旬仅出售 3300 万美元的个人大持有者引起了人们的关注。

Still, these discussions are not worth following up on. In the long run it doesn't really matter which players were selling or when. Thus, as an investor, keep your attention on the longer view rather than on what a few big investors are said to be doing.

尽管如此，这些讨论仍然不值得继续下去。从长远来看，哪些球员或何时出售并不重要。因此，作为投资者，请将注意力放在更长远的观点上，而不是关注少数大投资者的所作所为。

2. Don't Get Bogged Down by Talk of Forking Chains and Other Technical Matters

2. 不要因谈论分叉链和其他技术问题而陷入困境

The distributed nature of blockchain networks as they're realized in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana is that if the validators of the network disagree about some fundamental attributes of their protocols, they can fork the chain and start a new project.

在比特币、以太坊和 Solana 中实现的区块链网络的分布式本质是，如果网络的验证者不同意其协议的某些基本属性，他们可以分叉链并启动一个新项目。

Such forks have happened numerous times in the past to both Ethereum and Bitcoin. You may have heard of these forked versions at the time, and it's possible that you even hold a few of the forked coins.

过去，以太坊和比特币都曾多次发生过此类分叉。您当时可能听说过这些分叉版本，并且您甚至可能持有一些分叉币。

But if you're a typical investor who's holding these cryptocurrencies indirectly, through your financial institution or via an exchange traded fund (ETF), there's simply not much need to entertain much of the casual discussion around the possibility of new forks occurring. It isn't something in your control, and there's a lot more talk about potential forks than there are actual forks -- not to mention the extreme rarity of forks that go on to outperform the original.

但是，如果您是通过金融机构或交易所交易基金（ETF）间接持有这些加密货币的典型投资者，则根本没有必要对发生新分叉的可能性进行过多的非正式讨论。这不是你可以控制的事情，而且关于潜在分叉的讨论比实际分叉要多得多——更不用说性能超越原始分叉的极其罕见了。

3. Steer Clear of Anything Pertaining to Short-Term Price Action

3. 避开任何与短期价格行为有关的事情

Much like with stocks, it's always very tempting to indulge the desire to want to learn more about the recent changing in price of your favorite cryptocurrency investments. The experience of gathering information about what's happening with prices right now tends to be addictive because of the financial implications of the data you find. After all, the prices change every day, and you want to be an informed investor so as to avoid losses.

就像股票一样，人们总是很容易沉迷于想要更多地了解您最喜欢的加密货币投资的近期价格变化的欲望。由于您发现的数据对财务的影响，收集有关当前价格变化的信息的体验往往会让人上瘾。毕竟，价格每天都在变化，您希望成为一名知情的投资者，以避免损失。

The correct way to do that is by looking at a price chart for a minute or two; I suggest that the chart should depict a period of at least one year at a minimum so as to help with focusing on the long-term performance of the investment.

正确的方法是查看价格图表一两分钟；我建议该图表应至少描述至少一年的时期，以帮助关注投资的长期绩效。

If you are taking more than a few minutes to pore over charts, you are at risk of overtrading, as nearly all short-term price data, and discussion of it, is noise. The more you zoom in your time horizon, the more likely you are to fixate on the importance of random fluctuations that have little to do with the investment thesis for holding a specific coin.

如果您花费超过几分钟的时间来研究图表，那么您就面临过度交易的风险，因为几乎所有短期价格数据及其讨论都是噪音。你的时间范围越放大，你就越有可能关注随机波动的重要性，而随机波动与持有特定代币的投资理论几乎没有关系。

So don't do it. Commit to holding your cryptocurrency investments for at least a couple of years, and check the price of your coins once per week to start. Remember, looking at the price or reading articles about price action doesn't actually change it.

所以不要这样做。承诺持有您的加密货币投资至少几年，并开始每周检查一次您的加密货币的价格。请记住，查看价格或阅读有关价格行为的文章实际上并不会改变它。